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RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS

RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS. Ron Conner Corps of Engineers. CORPS MISSIONS. PLANNING , CONSTRUCTING AND MANAGING WATER RESOURCE AND COASTAL STORM PROJECTS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS. RISK MANAGEMENT VS

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RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS

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  1. RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS Ron Conner Corps of Engineers

  2. CORPS MISSIONS • PLANNING , CONSTRUCTING AND MANAGING WATER RESOURCE AND COASTAL STORM PROJECTS • EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

  3. RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS RISK MANAGEMENT VS RISK-BASED ANALYSIS

  4. RISK MANAGEMENT • IDENTIFY OPTIONS • EVALUATE TRADE-OFFS • SELECT APPROPRIATE RISK-LEVEL

  5. RISK-BASED ANALYSIS An approach to evaluation and decision making that explicitly, and to the extent practical analytically incorporate considerations of risk and uncertainty

  6. FLOOD CONTROL EXAMPLE • PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS • Frequency Curve • Rating Curve • Damage Function • MONTE CARLO SIMULATION • MULTIPLE ITERATIONS

  7. Investment Decision-Making Lengthy Study Process Precision Expectation Mission Scope Immediate Need 80 Percent Solution? PLANNING EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

  8. ONGOING PROGRAMS • Research and Development • Other Programs

  9. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT • Risk Analysis for Civil Work Projects • Risk Analysis for Dam Safety • Procedures for applying risk analysis to dam safety investment decision making process • Individual dams • Case study: Alamo Dam • Portfolio assessment • Demonstration application • Procedures for estimating potential lives saved

  10. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT • Corps Water Management System - CWMS • Project Status and Hydromet data in real-time • Store, Manage and Report data, imagery and documents • Model, Forecast and Simulate reservoir and river status • Perform Decision Support Analysis and Information Dissemination • Test Version Fielded at Four Sites

  11. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT • Risk-Based Coastal Storm Model • Application Across Program Areas • Concept - Stage • Incorporates Uncertainty in Key Variables such as inundation areas, beach retreat, damage function. • Could be extended for Wind damage

  12. OTHER PROGRAMS • FLOOD DAMAGE DATA COLLECTION • Data collection • Generic residential depth-damage functions • CEFIT • Residential • Commercial • Flood Plain Inventory Primer • Road Damages • EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MODEL VALIDATION

  13. OBJECTIVE An integrated program of risk management will bring together Federal and state programs to address the mitigation and the response and recovery from riverine and coastal flooding

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