Introduction to International Relations – (Honors)

1. Introduction to International Relations – (Honors) • Note Card: • Name • Major • Other PS courses ? • Post Grad Plans • Other info • Syllabus • Texts

2. News on the Web • Read daily news source • Be prepared to discuss news issues that are either relevant to readings or very topical.

3. Current Events Quiz • Who is? • Vice President of US • Secretary of State • Secretary of Defense • National Security Advisor • Secretary of Treasury • Who is leader of: • Great Britain • West Germany • France • Japan • Russia • Mexico

4. Common International ACRONYMS • OPEC • NATO • WTO • SALT • START • NMD • WMD

5. Geography • Where are: • Kampuchea • Belize • Nauru • Namibia • Qatar

6. Current Events Answers • Who is? • Vice President of US - Richard Cheney • Secretary of State – Colin Powell • Secretary of Treasury – John Snow • Secretary of Defense – Donald Rumsfeld • National Security Advisor – Condaleza Rice • Who is leader of: • Great Britain – Tony Blair (Prime Minister) • West Germany - Gerhard Schroeder (Chancellor) • France - Jacques Chirac (President) • Japan - Junichiro Koizumi (President) • Russia - Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin (President) • Mexico - Vicente Fox Quesada (President) • Saudi Arabia - King Fahd bin Abdul Aziz

7. Common International ACRONYMS • OPEC • Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries • NATO • North Atlantic Treaty Organization • WTO • World Trade Organization (or ??) • SALT • Strategic Arms Limitations Talks • START • Strategic Arms reduction Talks • NMD • National Missile Defense • WMD • Weapons of Mass Destruction

8. Geography • Where are: • Kampuchea – formerly Cambodia • Southeastern Asia, bordering the Gulf of Thailand, between Thailand, Vietnam, and Laos • Belize • Middle America, bordering the Caribbean Sea, between Guatemala and Mexico • Nauru • Oceania, island in the South Pacific Ocean, south of the Marshall Islands • Namibia • Southern Africa, bordering the South Atlantic Ocean, between Angola and South Africa • Qatar • Middle East, peninsula bordering the Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabia

9. Historical Perspective on the Study of International Relations • How long have we studied IR? • Gilgamesh • http://novaonline.nv.cc.va.us/eli/eng251/gilgameshstudy.htm • The Iliad • The Iliad (Sparknotes) • Thucydides ‑ • The History of the Peloponnesian Wars

10. Pre ‑ WWI • Traditional Diplomatic History • Descriptive and Prescriptive • Emphasis on the Uniqueness of events • History is made by great men/women • International law

11. WWI ‑ WWII • Political Idealism (the ‘optimists) • Men are good, only institutions are evil • Progress (as defined by absence of war) is possible • The Neoidealists see conflict as the result of anarchy • Appeal to justice – power is in the printed word

12. Post WWII to 1960's • Political Realism • (IR takes place in a state of Nature [a la Hobbes] where: • "Life is nasty, mean, cruel, brutish and short") • Hobbes’ Leviathan • Nations/men/women are motivated by a lust for power • Nations act in their own self interest. • Altruism doesn’t exist.

13. 1960's to present • The Behavioral/Scientific Study of Foreign Policy • We are interested in: • General principles • Cause and Effect • Rigorous theory • Measurement

15. Theory

16. Theory Hypothesis

17. Theory Hypothesis Observation

18. Theory Analysis Hypothesis Observation

19. Theory Analysis Hypothesis Observation

20. Theory Deduction Analysis Hypothesis InductionOperationalization Observation Confirmation/ rejection

21. Two views of the modern era • The Great Leader • The Grand View

22. The Great Leader • Great men do Great Deeds • Apologies to Great Women ? • No...because those who accept this thesis would have to claim that there have been few great women, or else no Great Historians to write about them. • Ronald Reagan (the epitome of the Cold Warrior) is the savior of the free World. He confronted the Soviets and in the end, their system couldn’t take the pressure. Gorbachev is a Saint/demon because he led the Russians to freedom/sell out their gains of the last half‑century.

23. The Grand View • Events are the result of large scale demographic, economic and social forces in which leaders are simply recruited because they have the appropriate characteristics for that time and place. • In the late 70's early 80's a frustrated and impotent American electorate turned to a forceful leader such as Ronald Reagan to galvanize opinion to take a harder line against Soviet expansion and Iranian terrorists. • To this end, the rebuilt US force posture “waged economic war” upon the Soviet Union. • The USSR, unable to effectively compete, overextended and its economy began to decline. • This decline allowed dissidents to emerge and force an internal reorganization of the SU.

24. Guiding Principles for Bueno de Mesquita • The actions that leaders take to influence events are motivated by personal welfare and especially the desire to stay in office. • International relations cannot be separated from domestic politics. • Relations between nations and between leaders are driven by strategic considerations.

25. Major Forces of Change in the Twenty-first Century • There are several major influences that are important to consider in looking at the modern world • The Cold war and its demise • Personal History • Look at Force Posture of military vis a vis Iraq • Demographic Transition • Population growth ‑ the result of changes in • Life Expectancy (death rate) • Birthrates (fertility rate) • Doubling time (rule of 72) • Medicine • SARS & AIDS

26. Major Forces of Change in the Twenty-first Century (cont.) • Food ‑ scarcity and sufficiency • Green Revolution • Genetics • Food security assessment • Energy Transition • Fossil Fuels • Solar • Renewables • Nuclear Fusion ?

27. Major Forces of Change in the Twenty-first Century (cont.) • The Global economy and the spread of industrialization • Relative decline in US (and Russia) • The growth of destructive potential and the accompanying paradoxical decline in the utility of military force. • The increasing reliance on terrorism and “Asymmetric warfare” • Social Mobility

28. Major Forces of Change in the Twenty-first Century (cont.) • The expansion of democratization and/or market economies • Where has democratization emerged? • East Europe, Soviet Union • Latin America, Philippines • China Iran (casualties of process) • Are these collapses of authoritarianism or socialism/communism, or are these the same things • Have we seen the demise of communism?

29. Major Forces of Change in the Twentieth Century (Continued) • Environmental Impacts • Acid rain • Ozone • Global warming/global climate change • The expansion of information technology • The WWW • Costs of information acquisition have dropped tremendously • The wireless world

30. An Introduction to the Idea of Levels of Analysis • Causes of WWII • Peace treaty of Versailles • Reparations too severe • loss of territory, pride • Restrictions on German Military • Economy • hyperinflation • Lack of leader for the world economy • Domestic turmoil • scapegoat • Charismatic leadership desired • Hitler • charismatic personality • perhaps mentally unbalanced

31. Levels of Analysis ‑ 3 levels • The conventional paradigm • The level of analysis refers to the units being described in the explanation • Individual Level • We fought WWII because Hitler was a charismatic and perhaps mentally disturbed leader • Nation‑State Level • We fought WWII because Germany sought an external scapegoat for its internal domestic economic problems. • International System Level • We fought WWII because Treaty of Versailles prevented Germany from re‑establishing itself as a key player in the Concert of Europe. The system was not restored “to balance” after WWI.

32. Levels of Analysis ‑ 6 levels • Individual Level • Personality • Education • Socialization • Genetics • Natural Attributes/Skills • Health • Reagan's age • Soviet succession • Idi Amin

33. Levels of Analysis ‑ 6 levels (cont.) • Roles • Institutional Interests • Budgets • Turf • Training & Perceptions • Alexander Haig as Sec. of State

34. Levels of Analysis ‑ 6 levels (cont.) • Governmental Structure • Regime Type • (1) Democratic regimes are responsive to public opinion • (2) Authoritarian regimes may have fewer constraints • Parliamentary systems may have foreign policy decision making separate from domestic head of state (i.e.. not cabinet level decision maker) • Governmental Processes • S.O.P.'s

35. Levels of Analysis ‑ 6 levels (cont.) • Nation State Level • Societal Characteristics • Religion • Northern Ireland, Lebanon, Sri Lanka, India, Iran (?) • War on terror ? • Culture • Heterogeneity • Historical development • Ethical/religious tradition • Domestic Turmoil • Rise of Nazis • Falkland Islands • Resources • Natural Resources • Wealth • Size, population, etc. • Expectations • Revolution of rising expectations

36. Levels of Analysis ‑ 6 levels (cont.) • International Relations (Dyadic Relations) • Alliance formation • Trade • Dependence/Interdependence • Interaction processes • Arms Races • Escalation ladders • Historical ties

37. Levels of Analysis ‑ 6 levels (cont.) • The International System • Polarity • Polarization • World Economy • Globalization • Global markets • Global currency regimes • Trade

38. Levels of Analysis ‑ 6 levels (cont.) • Geopolitics • Climate ‑ Huntington/Ellsworth's optimal temp = 65‑70 • Environmental challenge (Polynesia too easy, the tundra is too harsh) • Geography • Control of the Seas (Mahan) • the Heartland (McKinder) • Lebensraum (Germany & Japan) • Examples: • Persian Gulf Suez Canal • the Horn of Africa the Alps • Panama Canal Bering Strait • English Channel Straits of Malacca

39. Levels of Analysis ‑ 6 levels (cont.) • Technology • Communications • Computers • Bioengineering • Historical development • Cycles • Sunspots ? • Long Cycles

40. Sovereignty and the Security Dilemma • Nation‑States • Legal term • a nation‑state possesses sovereignty over territory and people • Generally, nation states have a geographical base • (what about Palestinians, Gypsies, and prior to this century, the Jews) • a common language • (India, USSR, Switzerland) • other ‑ integrated economy, religion, 'national character' and some institutional framework • (try to imagine a coup in the US)

41. Hobbesian State of Nature • Hobbes' Leviathan • Leviathan's may be masters or servants, but they never yield to one another except through their own consent. • they exist in a “state of nature” • "Life is nasty, mean, cruel, brutish and short” • Became a working concept with Peace of Westphalia (1648) • the signators limited the influence of the Holy Roman Empire over sovereign and 'impermeable' states • The failure to agree about the extent of sovereignty is the stuff that wars are made of

42. The Security Dilemma • Nations exist in a state of nature and therefore their sovereignty is vulnerable to external attack • If nations were to establish a hierarchical authority in the international system, they would be surrendering the very thing they wish to protect ‑ their sovereignty. • What about the UN?

43. Power • Power is a very illusive concept. • We know it has something to do with capabilities. • The Determinants of Power • Tangible and intangible resources • Geography • Britain, USSR, US, Switzerland • Natural Resources • Population • Wealth and military capability • National will • Leadership • Government • Power becomes difficult to assess • Vietnam, Israel, Afghanistan, Terrorism.

44. Great Powers • Great Powers and Superpowers • Intro: Discussed Polarity and International System • Great Powers are nations which have played roles in the international system which are more involved than simple size or power would account for • List: • Britain 1815 - • Russia, USSR 1815 ‑ • France 1815 ‑ • Prussia, Germany 1815 ‑ 1945 • Austria‑Hungary 1815 ‑ 1918 • Italy 1870 ‑ 1943 • US 1900 ‑ • Japan 1904 ‑ 1945 • China 1945 ‑

45. What makes a Great Power • Recruitment Characteristics/ "Membership" • Diplomatic Politics • Participant in the Concert of Europe • Membership in the Council of the League of Nations • Security Council of the United Nations • Power Politics • Military Capability • Nuclear Capability • In return for this leadership role they are supposed to provide a collective good ‑ security.

46. Nuclear Weapons • The Nuclear Club • US Atomic bomb August 1945 Thermonuclear • SU Atomic Thermonuclear • UK Atomic Thermonuclear • France Atomic Thermonuclear • China Atomic Thermonuclear • India • Pakistan • Possibles/Probables/Capables • Israel • South Africa • Iran • North Korea • Japan • Sweden • Germany • Norway • Canada • Australia • Desire the bomb (at one time or another) • Argentina • Iraq • Libya (Repentant ?) • Syria • Brazil

47. Non-State Actors and Nuclear Weapons • Many groups would like to acquire nuclear weapons • Al Qaeda • PLO (or splinter group) • Red Brigade • Red Army Faction • Islamic Jihad • Abu Nidal • IRA (in the past) • Hezbollah

48. The Cold War • US ‑ Soviet Relations • 1945 ‑ present

49. Wary Friendship (1945‑1946) • Background of distrust • Failure of Allies to open up a second front in Europe until 1944 • Lack of diplomatic recognition until 1930's • Active military efforts against Red Army in 1917‑21 period. • Noteworthy Events • US atomic bomb • Trust seemed to decline as Truman assumed power • Soviets attempted to be accommodative on occasion • Greek communist insurgents abandoned • Personae • Roosevelt • Truman • Stalin

50. Mutual Antagonism/Belligerence (1947‑1952) • Noteworthy Events • Soviet atomic Bomb • Berlin Blockade • Soviet refusal to withdraw troops from Iran • Communist coup in Czechoslovakia • NATO formed in 1949 • Fall of China to Mao Tse‑Tung • Korean war • Personae • Truman • Eisenhower • Stalin • George F. Kennan, US Ambassador to Moscow • 'long telegram', X's article in Foreign Affairs