The Future of the HVAC&R Industry

1. The Future of the HVAC&R Industry Richard B. Hayter Kansas State University Sheila J. Hayter U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Paper #134, Topic #5.4 www.clima2005.ch

2. A Perspective on the Future “No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is but the world as it will be.” Isaac Asimov

3. A Perspective on the Future • A world population of 6B, increasing to perhaps 10B by 2050 • Rising expectations of developing countries • Escalating demand on (finite) resources • Political and economic instability • Preservation of the environment Jim Schultz CLIMA 2001

4. A Perspective on the Future • Building envelopes that serve a dual role as the building electrical power source • Power sources within the building (micro turbines, fuel cells) • Refrigerant free, energy efficient refrigeration and space cooling equipment R. B. Hayter

5. Overview • Learning from the past • The HVAC&R Market • Influences on HVAC&R Applications • Looking Ahead

6. Learning from the Past In the past, buildings in warm climates had operable windows with awnings for shade, high ceilings and portable fans.

7. Learning from the Past • The U.S. National Academy of Engineering selected air-conditioning and refrigeration as one of the “Greatest Engineering Achievements of the 20th Century.” • Since 1940 eight of the 10 fastest growing cities in the U.S. are in the southern part of the country. • Today, in excess of 55% of the entire U.S. housing stock has central air-conditioning and 75% of all newly constructed homes have central air-conditioning.

8. The HVAC Market Courtesy ARI

9. The HVAC Market • 33,297 CFC chillers still remain in use in the US. • Replacement chillers are at least 40% more efficient than those installed 40 years ago. • CO2 production has been reduced by 4 million tons/year as a result of chiller replacement.

10. The HVAC Market Shipment-Weighted Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratios of Unitary Air-Conditioners (Less than 65,000 BTUH) Courtesy ARI

11. Influences on HVAC&R Applications “The solutions to infrastructure problems are probably 5% technical and 95% social, political, environmental and economic.” U.S. National Science Foundation Civil Infrastructure Systems Task Force.

12. Influences on HVAC&R Applications • Energy • Environment • Human Factors • Political • Societal • Communication

13. Influences on HVAC&R Applications • Energy • The U.S. residential and commercial sectors account for 40% of the total energy consumed in the country. • 41% of all electricity consumed in commercial buildings is for comfort cooling, ventilation and refrigeration. • Consumers are demanding sustainable building design, construction and operation are key.

14. Influences on HVAC&R Applications • Environment “If every centrifugal chiller had an efficacy of 0.48 kW/Ton vs. 0.56, annual plant emissions would be reduced by • Nearly 17 billion pounds of C02 • Over 64 billion grams of SO2 • Over 27 billion grams of Nox Which is equivalent to: • Removing over 2 X 106 cars from the road • Planting nearly 500 X 106 trees each year.” Jim Wolf ASHRAE Presidential Member

15. Influences on HVAC&R Applications • Human Factors Employee cost per unit area of an office building in the U.S. is 100 times that of the operating cost of the building. Jeopardizing employee performance because of poor control of the indoor environment could be a major cost to employer.

16. Influences on HVAC&R Applications 4. Political Public policy affecting building design, construction and operation must be based on solid technical principles, not politically based restrictions. System design and performance standards must be uniform throughout the globe and be based on technology rather than market protection.

17. Influences on HVAC&R Applications • Societal The consumer is demanding that buildings be • sustainable • safe • free from harmful contaminants • structurally sound • safe from acts of violence

18. Influences on HVAC&R Applications • Communication The internet gives us a “flat” world. It allows us to • Share educational programs, • Relay and discuss research results* and • Create global design teams independent of location. *Information available on the Web may not have undergone the scrutiny of peer review.

19. Looking Ahead • Equipment and Systems • Improvements in compressor modulation • Cost effective expansion recovery systems • Reliable, oil-less drives • Improvements in refrigerant heat exchanger performance Jim Schultz CLIMA 2001

20. Looking Ahead 1. Equipment and Systems Continued • Increased use of radiant cooling • Expanded use on individual climate control • Natural and displacement ventilation • More applications of refrigerant free cooling R.B. Hayter

21. Looking Ahead • Refrigerants • Development of new, environmentally benign refrigerant blends • Increased use of natural, flammable and explosive refrigerants in systems that are safe and that have an acceptable COP.

22. Looking Ahead • Controllers • Building automation will migrate from central control to the equipment level. • Wireless controllers will give greater flexibility. • Point control applications will increase. • Internet based control will expand. • Systems will be less susceptible to power quality anomalies.

23. Looking Ahead • Human Factors • Use of multivariate controllers will increase. • The understanding about effects of air quality will increase as will our ability to control it. • Demand for acoustic control will increase • The effect of the indoor environment on productivity will be quantified.

24. Looking Ahead • Specialty Environments • Individual control of environments within the personal space will increase. • Preservation of food and environmental control of food animal confinement housing will increase. • The demands by the manufacturing sector for precise environmental control will increase.

25. Looking Ahead • Design Team

26. Conclusion “Vision without action is merely a dream and action without vision just passes the time, but vision with action can change the world.” Joel Barker