The ‘Visioning’ group. The first reflections

1. The ‘Visioning’group.The first reflections Huw Williams – BBC and David Wood - EBU

4. The Visioning Project • Can we identify technological trends over the next 5,10, and 15 years? • Can we identify business trends? • Can we identify consumer trends? • Where should public service media providers ‘position’ themselves? • What should they be doing?

5. The Future... • The future not as alien as it might seem - will still be lots of familiar touch-points combined with some entirely new technology • Narrative packages (i.e. Dramas, Documentaries etc) will still be in production the change will be in consumption habits and type

6. Growth of Consumer Electronics (CE) Sales in $Billion N.B. *Forecast **Estimate Source : Consumer Electronics Association

7. Future world of CE • Consumer marketplace in constant flux - there will be a constant renewal of the ‘receiving platforms’ available to end-user • Concept of continual renewal now established with consumers (as seen in mobile phones) • Broadcasters who fail to understand this will lose out or disappear in the next decade

8. Convergence or not ? “The PC will play a key role in the home,” he says. “But we would come across as arrogant if we said it was only the PC. I wouldn’t say it’s the center of the digital home, but it will play a role.” …Bill Leszinske, director of digital home marketing for Intel “The all-in-one media entertainment console is the Holy Grail of the consumer electronics industry. Everyone from Apple, Sony, Microsoft and the console game companies have made forays into this area. But thus far no one has developed a box with true crossover appeal.” Milan Petrovich, academic director of The Art Institute of Las Vegas’ Game Art & Design

9. Cocooning • Americans’ uncertainty leads to cocooning at home, a desire to stay informed and connected everywhere and a focus on friends and family. • This means wireless, hometheater and mobile electronics should continue to grow. • Source: Consumer Electronics Association

10. Disintermediation • function - noun • etymology - from the investor's bypassing of the intermediate institution: the diversion of savings from accounts with low fixed interest rates to direct investment in high-yielding instruments • 1. In finance, withdrawal of funds from intermediary financial institutions, such as banks and savings and loan associations, in order to invest them directly. • 2. Generally, removing the middleman or intermediary.

12. Impact on Broadcasters Participation - Citzen journalism - London Bombings and Buncefield fire -1000 images,video emails etc sent in for London Bombings -6500 sent in for Buncefield fire (people queuing by satellite truck to file images) Content Consumption in a myriad of formats - For example - PC (iMP - myBBCPlayer), MP3 (Podcasting, myBBCPlayer), Mobile Devices (as in recent O2 trial where trialists watched more video at home rather than on the move) Inclusivity - Providing services to the digital vanguard and digital refuseniks at the same time

13. Accurate predictions cannot be made, and different countries will have different landscapes

14. The basic trend is the multiplication of means to deliver media New media ‘add to’ old media, but do not ‘kill them.

15. Potential dominance of North America in worldwide Internet. But language barriers will affect the market

16. The greatest trend is widespread use of broadband, with Open Internet gaining compared to IPTV But broadband will not replace broadcasting, it will share the landscape with it.

17. Public service broadcasting has the mission to be ‘universal’. This will be an important distinguishing feature

18. To do: the logic of public service in the new media environment must be explained more clearly to opinion formers and the public.

19. To do: technological progress should be integrated more than it is into the strategic thinking of media providers. Policy must have a technological base

21. Thank you for your attention