The Anatomy of an Overheating Earth: Climate Changes and Worsening Heat Waves

1. ESG Consulting Services WHITEPAPER The Anatomy of an Overheating Earth: Climate Changes and Worsening Heat Waves

2. The Anatomy of an Overheating Earth: Climate Changes and Worsening Heat Waves Summary Climate change is widespread, intensifying rapidly, and some trends have now become irreversible. In the present time frame, human-induced climate crises are simulating many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. Scientists are closely observing the changes across the Earth’s climate system; the atmosphere, the oceans, ice floes, and land. While many of these changes are unprecedented, some of the shifts are now in motion – making them irreversible for centuries to millennia ahead. Strong emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases are impacting the environment leaving a record-shattering rise in the heatwave with temperatures exceeding 45oC. The ongoing heatwave projects the reality of systemic risks, leading to critical electricity and water shortages. The current heatwave is affecting over 1.5 billion people in South Asia. Scientists are predicting that the record- shattering heatwaves will intensify and become more frequent for years to come. This whitepaper examines the causes and impacts this heatwave is bringing on society and the measures to be implemented ahead on the path towards sustainability. The Deadly Heatwave: Understanding the Causes and Implications What is a Heatwave? A heatwave is a condition of air temperature that becomes fatal for the human body when exposed. Quantitatively, it is defined depending on the temperature thresholds over a region in terms of its actual temperature or departure from normal. Heatwaves are deemed the deadliest weather phenomenon. In certain countries, the threshold is defined in terms of the heat index based on temperature and humidity or the extreme percentile of the temperatures. Multiple culnerabilities increase the risk of health impact The less abled, pregnant, or already infirm The poor, displaced, and homeless Children & the elderly Athletes Outdoor & manual workers 2

3. The Anatomy of an Overheating Earth: Climate Changes and Worsening Heat Waves Why is this happening? With the climate crisis intensifying, the traditional global atmospheric circulation systems, including the jet stream in the northern hemisphere, are experiencing disruptions, triggering more frequent and intense climate events. Slighter differences in temperature between the poles and the equator are slowing the jet stream, leading to a buildup of high or low-pressure weather systems. This scenario results in more persistent hot- dry extremes in mid-latitudes. The current heatwave in Europe is connected to a slow-moving system in the North Atlantic that is allowing hot air from the Sahara to move north. In Northern India and Pakistan, the situation is even graver. The heatwave is lasting longer than usual due to a delayed start to the seasonal monsoon. These modalities are expected to become more common in the future due to the shifting seasonality of the monsoon with climate change. Maximum Temprature Map 1 Legend: Max Temprature (oC) 4 8 14 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 Heat Wave Severe Heat Wave 3

4. The Anatomy of an Overheating Earth: Climate Changes and Worsening Heat Waves Why does it matter? Earth is warming at an alarming rate. With the upsurge in average global temperature, the probability of extremely hot temperature anomalies also rises, resulting in longer and more frequent heatwaves. Heatwaves now pose a recurring challenge to all inhabited continents and raise concerns about threats to human lives and well-being. The situation is particularly threatening for cities, as the environmental conditions there magnify heat exposure. Scientists predict that close to 70% of the world’s population is expected to live in cities by 2050, thus surging the exposure to extreme heat by a high range. Who is affected? The rising global ambient temperatures are affecting all. Some populations are more physiologically or socio-economically vulnerable to heatwave stress. Aggravated illness from exposure to excessive heat can increase the risk of death. These include the elderly, infants and children, pregnant women, outdoor manual workers, athletes, and the poor. Gender can also play an equally important role in determining heat exposure. How heat affects the body Dizziness and faint feelings from not drinking enought water Heart rate increases as the body works harder Heat rashes as body loses heat from the skin Skin produces sweat Sweating cools the skin by losing heat through evaporation Ankles can become swollen from increased blood flow Source: Public Health England A Century of Change The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) commented that in the coming decade, the climate crisis will advance to all regions. • For 1.5°C of global warming, there will be increased heat waves, longer and warmer seasons, and shorter cold seasons. • For 2°C of global warming, heat extremes will likely reach critical tolerance thresholds. But the changes won’t be just about temperature. Climate change is also intensifying the natural production of water – the water cycle – bringing in more intense rainfall and flooding, as well as intense drought in multiple regions. The crisis is also affecting rainfall patterns. In high latitudes, precipitation is predicted to increase, while it is projected to decline over large parts of the subtropics. Changes in monsoonal rains and their patterns are expected. Further warming will amplify permafrost thawing, loss of seasonal snow cover, melting of glaciers, and loss of summer Arctic Sea ice. The warming is severely impacting the oceans, leading to more frequent marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, and reduced oxygen levels, impacting both ocean ecosystems and the people that rely on them. The recent multiple climate disasters, including devastating flooding in central China and western Europe, have brought to the public’s attention the rising climate crisis. The projecting scenarios notify that if stern actions are not taken, the potential outcomes will likely be critical and shattering. 4

5. The Anatomy of an Overheating Earth: Climate Changes and Worsening Heat Waves South Asia is Burning, quite literally A string of deadly heatwaves has impacted millions worldwide, especially in South Asia. Temperatures are soaring across South Asia, pushing dangerous thresholds. Global warming is dramatically impacting Earth’s climate. Average temperatures are forecasted to rise 1.96 degrees over pre-industrial averages, contributing to increased flooding. Climate change is yielding some unpredictable effects, like the boom in beaver populations leading to increased dam-building, causing subsequent flooding in the Arctic tundra region. To break this cycle, South Asia is pivoting towards implementing new heat action plans and resilience measures. Can it be quantified how much climate change is to be blamed for these rising crises? IMD’s colour codes for heatwave warning Colour Code Green (No action) Alert Impact Comfortable temperature. No cautionary action required. Suggested action Normal Day No cautionary action required • Avoid heat exposure. • Wear lightweight, light coloured, loose, cotton clothes. • Cover your head: Use a cloth, hat or umbrella • Avoid heat exposure-keep cool. Avoid dehydration. • Drink sufficient water - even if not thirsty. • Use ORS, homemade drinks like lassi, torani (rice water), lemon water, butter milk, etc. to keep yourself hydrated Extreme care needed for vulnerable people Moderate temperature. Heat is tolerable fro general public but moderate health concern for vulnerable peoplee.g, infants, elderly, people with chronic diseases Yellow alert (Be updated) Heat Alert High temperature. Increased likelihood of heat illness symptoms in people who are eigther exposed to sun for a prolonged period or doing heavy work. High health concern for vulnerable people e.g, infants, elderly, people with chronic diseases Orange alert (Be prepared) Severe Heat Alert Red alret (Take action) Extreme Heat Alert Very high likelihood of developing heat illness and heat stroke in all ages Source: IMD Is Climate Change Aggravating the Heatwaves? While it is tricky to tease out how specific weather events or changes can influence heatwaves, scientists have been developing models to figure out how humanity’s hunger for fossil fuels is making the disasters worse. Considering past events, it can be inferred that humans share an equal portion of the blame. Research suggests that climate change has made the heat five times as likely as it would have been on a planet that hadn’t warmed. Heatwaves in the ocean have become 20 times as likely as average temperatures are rising. The mechanism is simple: The burning of fossil fuels releases greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which traps more heat energy and pushes the average temperatures leading to extreme heatwaves. Unless rapid and deep reductions in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades, the situation will keep pushing up extreme temperatures. 5

6. The Anatomy of an Overheating Earth: Climate Changes and Worsening Heat Waves Increase in morbidity and mortality: An attribute of Human-induced Warming Over centuries, human activities have affected all major climate system components. Scientists are pointing out that evidence of changes in extremes such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, and tropical cyclones, are all attributed to human influence. Many changes in the climate system have worsened due to direct relation to increasing global warming. This comprises an increase in the intensity of heat extremes and marine heatwaves, ecological droughts, and reductions in Arctic Sea ice and permafrost. These human-caused changes are modulating natural drivers, thereby having a long-term effect on global warming. Apart from the rising need for climate mitigation, it is equally essential to pay attention to climate adaptation. Since the negative trend of the climate crisis is expected to continue for decades, adapting to the rising temperature is important. People with chronic diseases and daily medications are at a greater risk of complications and death during a heatwave, along with older people and children. Reactions to heatwaves depend on the person’s ability to adapt, and serious effects can arise suddenly. Therefore, it is critical to pay attention to the alerts and recommendations for heatwaves and heat gains. Exposure to hotter than average conditions compromise the body’s ability to regulate temperature leading to a rapid rise in heat gain and can result in a cascade of illnesses. Exposure to heat leads to severe symptoms like heat exhaustion and even heat stroke – a condition that causes faintness, as well as dry, warm skin due to the body’s inability to control high temperatures. Other symptoms are heat rash, swelling in the lower limbs, headache, irritability, lethargy, and weakness. Heatwaves are a leading cause of severe dehydration and acute cerebrovascular can also worsen chronic medical conditions like cardiovascular and diabetes-related conditions. accidents. Extreme temperature The Sustainable Path Forward The most efficacious way to avoid the negative impacts of heatwaves is to mitigate the climate crisis by reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and minimizing the rise in global mean temperatures. • A sustainable shift towards cleaner fuels will not only reduce GHG emissions but will also assist in lowering localized air pollution and heat island effects within and across cities. • Employing new initiatives and policies to create early warning and response systems and enhanced communication approaches can aid in saving lives and building resilience to heatwaves. • During a heatwave, authorities can implement a range of strategies to modify social behavior and reduce exposure to heat by closing schools or offices that lack adequate air conditioning, assuring availability of water, health care, and first aid, and extending access to pools, parks, and public cooling centers. • Improved urban design and sustainable planning, which increases the amount of and access to green space and other cool environments and encourages white roofs, can play a vital role in avoiding heat- related illness and surface temperatures. 6

7. The Anatomy of an Overheating Earth: Climate Changes and Worsening Heat Waves Increased transmission of • Food and waterborne diseases • Marine algal blooms Impact on health services • Increased ambulance call-outs and slower response times Heat cramps • Response times • Increased number of hospital admissions • Storage of medicines Increased risk of accidents • Drowning • Work-related accidents • Injuries and poisonings Potential disruption of infrastructure: • Power • Water • Transport • Productivity Indirect Impacts Health Impacts of Exposure to Extreme Heat Direct Impacts Heat Illness • Dehydration • Heat cramps • Heat stroke Accelerated death from: • Respiratiory disease • Cardiovascular disease • Other chronic disease (mental health, renal disease) Hospitalization • Respiratory disease • Diabetes mellitus • Renal disease • Stroke • Mental health conditions 2022: The Warmest Among All - Be Prepared for Extreme Heat Events Considering the ongoing grave scenarios, for 2022, it can be forecasted that- • While 2022 is expected to experience a slight cooling influence, it will continue to be one of the warmest years. And due to the high greenhouse gas emissions, the situation is expected to worsen every year. • There are likely to be more extreme heat events on Earth this year, considering the increasing odds of record-breaking heatwaves occurring. • With measures being taken, the planet will experience more frequent and intense heat waves in the coming years. The climate of Earth climate is changing and the role of human influence on the climate crisis is undisputed. • his signifies the need to build greater resilience to these extremes. Beyond 2022, the world will continue to experience global warming until the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere stops. And with global carbon dioxide emissions rebounding to near-record levels in 2021, after a quick drop in 2020 due to the pandemic, we have a long way off stopping global warming. Rapid decarbonization is the need of the hour to further reduce further warming of the planet. However, it is still not late to avoid the impacts of the most dangerous climate change. Mediated by environmental, social, and public health determinants, the climate-sensitive health risks, their exposure, and vulnerability factors impact health both directly and indirectly. Owing to the increasingly stringent environmental standards, CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions reached a record low for new cars in 2020. Transportation accounts for roughly 29% of greenhouse gas emissions, but with advanced manufacturing models, new vehicles are among the least polluting. Climate change caused by greenhouse gases emitted from burning fossil fuels is poised to make heat waves longer, more intense, and more frequent. It takes time for the dust from the emissions to settle on the heatwaves, enabling scientists to estimate just how much humans are contributing to the problem. Greenhouse gases have propelled every decadal temperature average higher than the one before it. Now predictions of frequent heatwaves are beyond doubt. But as greenhouse gas pollution continues to rise, hot extremes are amplifying. Cold spells are becoming weaker and rarer. The minor, gradual increases in global average temperatures are bringing about disruptive weather swings. This long-term trend is not going to change as the patterns are too clear to miss. 7

8. The Anatomy of an Overheating Earth: Climate Changes and Worsening Heat Waves About the Author Jayaprakash Mallikarjuna • Head of ESG Services & Data Modernization Passion for generating actionable insights from data is something that drives Jayaprakash (better known as JP). In his 18+ years of professional journey, his focus has been to enhance customer experience and drive value for businesses. At SGA, he plays a key role in enabling the growth of our ESG services and data modernization businesses. Prior to SGA, he spent over a decade at Thomson Reuters in the investment research space and then jumped into the start-up world with a mandate to drive operations strategies and grow the business. Being an ardent chess player and a runner help him in strategizing paths to the end-goals consistently while his puns keep him high. Disclaimer This document makes descriptive reference to trademarks that may be owned by others. The use of such trademarks herein is not an assertion of ownership of such trademarks by SG Analytics (SGA) and is not intended to represent or get commercially benefited from it or imply the existence of an association between SGA and the lawful owners of such trademarks. Information regarding third-party products, services, and organizations was obtained from publicly available sources, and SGA cannot confirm the accuracy or reliability of such sources or information. Its inclusion does not imply an endorsement by or of any third party. Copyright © 2022 SG Analytics Pvt. Ltd. www.sganalytics.com GET IN TOUCH New York | Seattle | San Francisco | Austin | London | Zurich | Pune | Hyderabad | Bengaluru 8