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Priority Project ‘Quantitative Precipitation Forecast’ Progress report Task 1.1 and 1.2

Priority Project ‘Quantitative Precipitation Forecast’ Progress report Task 1.1 and 1.2. Silke Dierer and Francis Schubiger MeteoSwiss. Outline. Work in Task 1.1 Sources for cases with bad precipitation forecast Preliminary list of cases Further steps Work in Task 1.2

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Priority Project ‘Quantitative Precipitation Forecast’ Progress report Task 1.1 and 1.2

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  1. Priority Project ‘Quantitative Precipitation Forecast’Progress report Task 1.1 and 1.2 Silke Dierer and Francis Schubiger MeteoSwiss

  2. Outline • Work in Task 1.1 • Sources for cases with bad precipitation forecast • Preliminary list of cases • Further steps • Work in Task 1.2 • Verification for Winter 04/05 and Dec.05/Jan.06 • Example of a characteristic period • Further steps francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006

  3. Task 1.1 Selection of single test cases

  4. Selection of test cases: sources I • Information from forecasters about bad precipitation forecast • Not objective • For different forecast ranges • Verification of precipitation by forecasters • daily average for 15 regions in Switzerland • forecast, model results and observations • disadvantage: currently no automatic evaluation possible => Situations with bad precipitation forecast in Switzerland francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006

  5. Selection of test cases: sources II SYNOP-Verification - surface verification for Europe with SYNOP data => Situations with bad precipitation forecast for the aLMo domain francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006

  6. Selection of test cases • Preliminary list of test cases includes periods • that are reported by forecasters • or have a bad forecast for several regions (forecasters‘ verification) • and show high deviation in SYNOP verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006

  7. Selection of test cases: Preliminary list for 2005 • Date Source Under-/Overestimation classification (based on NCEP data) • dd at 500 hPa surface pressure • (high, low, flat) • 19.-22.1. FV + NW/NW/NW/NW L/H/H/L • 22.-23.1. FV + NW/NW L/L • 11.-15.2. FV + W/W/NW/NW/N H/H/L/L/L • 24.3. FV - SW H, flat • 9.4. FV + NO L • 16./17.4. FV - SO/O L,flat • 23.-25.4. Fo/FV +/+ W/W/SW H • 16./17.5. Fo/FV ?/+ SW H • 21.-23.5. FV - SW H • 14.6. FV + SW H • 25.6. FV +/- SW H,flat • 2.7. Fo + W L • 18.7. FV + SW H • 29.7. FV + SW H,flat • 2./3.8. FV + SW/S H->L, inbetween • 6.8. FV + W H • 11.8. Fo + W H • 14.-22.8. Fo/FV ?/+ (mainly) W/NW/N/N/N/W/SW/SO/O H/L/L/H,flat/H,flat/H/L/L/L • 28.8. Fo + NW H,flat • 2.9. FV + S H,flat • 8.-12.9. Fo/FV -/- (mainly) S/S/?/SW/SW H,flat/H,flat/L,flat,/L/L • 16./17.9. FV -, dann + W/SW L/L • 1.-3.10. Fo/FV +, dann –/- N/W/W H/L/L • 18.10. Fo erst -/dann + SW H • 22./23.10. Fo - SW/SW L/L • 3.11. Fo ? SW L • 6.11. Fo - SW H,flat francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006

  8. ANETZ verification for 21st January 05 francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo, red: LM

  9. Selection of test cases: next steps • Complete list for 2004 and 2006 • Check if insufficient forecast is due to deviations of the synoptic situation • Might be necessary to rerun simulations due to missing output plots that can be compared with analysis • Possibly ANETZ verification • => skip these cases • Specify different kinds forecast errors (e.g. synoptic conditions) and select characteristic test cases francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006

  10. Task 1.2. Seasonal verification

  11. Verification of aLMo Winter 04/05 SYNOP francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006

  12. Verification of aLMo Winter 04/05 over Switzerland francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo, red: LM

  13. Verification of aLMo: December 05 – January 06 francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo

  14. February 2005 francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo, red: LM

  15. ANETZ verification for 10th -14th February 05 francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo, red: LM

  16. Seasonal verification: next steps • Selection of characteristic days • Based on scatter plots for winter 2004/2005 and 2005/2006 (measurement vs. simulation) • 24h area averages for Switzerland, for different heights (0-800m, 800m-1500m and above 1500m) • Selecting days with bad precipitation forecast • Specifying synoptic situation • Select characteristic periods francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006

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