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ESA Innovator II: Ballast Water Risk Index A Tool for assessing the risk of ballast water exchange in the North Sea Kerstin Stelzer , Brockmann Consult. User Consultation Meeting Ballast Water Risk. Project Information. Duration: 01/2009 – 06/2010 Funding: European Space Agency (ESA)
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ESA Innovator II: Ballast Water Risk IndexA Tool for assessing the risk of ballast water exchange in the North SeaKerstin Stelzer, Brockmann Consult User Consultation Meeting Ballast Water Risk ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Project Information Duration: 01/2009 – 06/2010 Funding: European Space Agency (ESA) Programme: ESA DUE Innovator II Testing the applicability of remote sensing satellite data in new applications Goal: Investigation of the opportunity for remote sensingsatellite data to contribute to the risk assessment of Ballast Water exchange Development and Implementation of the BallastWater Risk Index concept: Brockmann Consult End User of the service: BSH ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Ballast Water Exchange Risk Index Transparency ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011 • Recommendations of the IMO Ballast Water Convention for ballast water exchange areas • Distance > 50nm • Depth > 200m • No turbid water • No outbreaks / HABs • Currents away from land • No sensitive aquatic areas • Closest to ship routes • Utilisation of remote sensing data where available and suitable • Chlorophyll concentration • Turbidity • Suspended matter • Temperature
Assumptions Risk Index Model Highly turbid waters high risk Near the coast high risk Near protected areas high risk Shallow waters high risk Drift to the coast high risk High chlorophyll concentration high risk High suspended matter high risk High CHL / turbidity at drift position high risk Low difference between source and destination area (Salinity, Temperature) high risk ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Product ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011 • Product: Risk Index Map • High values indicating potential negative impact of ballast water exchange • Model Principles • Standardisation of input parameters • Tuning parameters (weighting factors) • Easy integration of additional parameters • Final Ballast Water Exchange Risk Index is composed of specific thematic risk indices
Concept of multiple Risk Indices Risk Index Exchange Risk Index Drift Risk Index Eco-Region Exchange Risk Index ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011 Ballast Water Risk Index* Wilhelmshaven * 26.08.2010
Distance Coast, Depth, Prot. Areas, Shipping Lines Chl, TSM Transp, Depth, Distance Currents, Circulation, Depth, Distance, Trans, Chl Temperature, Salinity (Source & Destination) Risk Index Model Ballast Water Exchange Risk Index Risk Index Ecology Risk Index Exchange Risk Index Drift Risk Index Eco-region ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011 Ballast Water Risk Index* Wilhelmshaven * 26.08.2010
Input Products Satellite data Static Maps Currents ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Input Data Earth Observation 30-day longterm averages Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Transparency Chlorophyll Concentration ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Static Information ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Forecasting model currents (demo years) ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Ballast Water Risk Index Risk Index Drift Risk Index Ecoregion Risk Index Exchange Ballast Water Risk Index ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Average Risk Index ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Average Risk Index: Idea Detection of stable high or low risk index regions Independent of source of the ballast water Calculation of daily Risk Indices for 2006 - 2008 Exchange Risk Index Drift Risk Index 1095 daily products Averaging over certain time periods Monthly Seasonal Semi-annual Yearly Calculation of standard deviation for the assessment of the stability of certain areas ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011 Ballast Water * North Sea Exemption Group * 17.06.2010
Process I: Daily Risk Index No risk index eco-region! ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Process II: Averaging ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
ARI and Variability Winter half-year ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
ARI and Variability Summer half-year ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Products and Use Cases Dynamic Risk Index Use Case: Ship is requesting permission for ballast water exchange from BSH Service Delivery: Generation of Risk Index via the web service Input: Date, Salinity, Temperature, Currents, Uptake/Exchange, … Output: Risk Index Map Update Frequency: on demand processing Average Risk Index Use Case: Assessment of the general risk situation and identification of potential exchange / no exchange areas Service Delivery: pre-calculated maps are available via the web service Update Frequency: static ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Web Application Dynamic Risk Index ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Web Application Averag Risk Index ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Support for the Exemption Group ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Cooperation • Close Cooperationwith BSH • Productdefinition • Model implementation • Presentation to International Bodies • OSPAR EIHA • HELCOM MARITIME • ICES/IOC/IMO Working Group on Ballast Water and other Ship Vectors • Relationship to Interreg Project Ballast Water Opportunities • Participation in different meetings • Presentation of the Risk Index Approach • Exchange and knowledge sharing with the North Sea Exchange and Exemption Group • Adaptation of products according to requirements of the North Sea Group ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Summary • Development of a risk index model for ballast water exchange • Two Risk Index Products • Dynamic Risk Index • Average Risk Index • Two Use Cases • Calculation of the ship dependent risk for ballast water exchange • Demonstration of high/low risk areas • Implementation as web service • Close cooperation with BSH and the Interreg project Ballast Water Opportunities ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Processing ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Processing Scheme Process I EO Data BC WAQSS Risk Index Law Risk Index Eco Ballast Water Exchange Risk Index ESA Archive Met-service Process II Currents BSH Cmod4 Process III Distances BEAM 10d running mean Chl, TSM, transp, North Sea & Baltic Sea Daily up-to-date Predicted currents North Sea & Baltic Sea config config config Process IV Indices BC WAQSS Coastline, PA, (Fishery) Proc. Param. Distance Map ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Thresholds and Weighting Factors ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Transformation of Parameters ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011
Non-linear Transformations ESA UCM Ballast Water Risk * Hamburg * 25.01.2011