1 / 37

NEXTRANS @ JTRP Road School March 25, 2008

NEXTRANS @ JTRP Road School March 25, 2008 Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Integrated Solutions for Transportation: Perspectives and Practices Samuel Labi Purdue University School of Civil Engineering Contents of this Presentation

Gabriel
Download Presentation

NEXTRANS @ JTRP Road School March 25, 2008

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. NEXTRANS @ JTRP Road School March 25, 2008 Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Integrated Solutions for Transportation: Perspectives and Practices Samuel Labi Purdue University School of Civil Engineering

  2. Contents of this Presentation Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments

  3. Contents of this Presentation Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments • Introduction and background • Integration of Transportation Investments • Trade-off analysis • Uncertainty • Summing up …

  4. Contents of this Presentation Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments • Introduction and background • Integration of Transportation Investments • Trade-off analysis • Uncertainty • Summing up …

  5. Contents of this Presentation Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments • Introduction and background • Integration of Transportation Investments • Trade-off analysis • Uncertainty • Summing up …

  6. Contents of this Presentation Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments • Introduction and background • Integration of Transportation Investments • Trade-off analysis • Uncertainty • Summing up …

  7. Contents of this Presentation Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments • Introduction and background • Integration of Transportation Investments • Trade-off analysis • Uncertainty • Summing up …

  8. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Part 1. Introduction and Background

  9. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Root of the Problem • Typical highway manager at state/county/city oversees several different facility types: • Pavements • Bridges and Culverts • Road-side Appurtenances • Road-way Appurtenances, etc.

  10. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Root of the Problem • Often need to evaluate investment options and make decisions • involving several facilities of same/different types • on the basis of multiple performance objectives • This gives rise to • Possible trade-offs among performance measures • Possible trade-offs among modes

  11. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Root of the Problem • Often need to evaluate investment options and make decisions • involving several facilities of same/different types • on the basis of multiple performance objectives • This gives rise to • Possible trade-offs among performance measures • Possible trade-offs among modes Cost ($) of the action

  12. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Root of the Problem • Often need to evaluate investment options and make decisions • involving several facilities of same/different types • on the basis of multiple performance objectives • This gives rise to • Possible trade-offs among performance measures • Possible trade-offs among modes Cost ($) of the action Impact on the Environment

  13. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Root of the Problem • Often need to evaluate investment options and make decisions • involving several facilities of same/different types • on the basis of multiple performance objectives • This gives rise to • Possible trade-offs among performance measures • Possible trade-offs among modes Cost ($) of the action Added facility durability Impact on the Environment

  14. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Root of the Problem • Often need to evaluate investment options and make decisions • involving several facilities of same/different types • on the basis of multiple performance objectives • This gives rise to • Possible trade-offs among performance measures • Possible trade-offs among modes Cost ($) of the action Added facility durability Impact on the Environment Impact on Mobility/Accessibility

  15. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Root of the Problem • Often need to evaluate investment options and make decisions • involving several facilities of same/different types • on the basis of multiple performance objectives • This gives rise to • Possible trade-offs among performance measures • Possible trade-offs among modes Impact on Safety Cost ($) of the action Added facility durability Impact on the Environment Impact on Mobility/Accessibility

  16. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Root of the Problem • Often need to evaluate investment options and make decisions • involving several facilities of same/different types • on the basis of multiple performance objectives • This gives rise to • Possible trade-offs among performance measures • Possible trade-offs among modes Impact on Safety Cost ($) of the action Added facility durability Impact on the Environment Impact on Mobility/Accessibility Etc.

  17. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Root of the Problem • Often need to evaluate investment options and make decisions • involving several facilities of same/different types • on the basis of multiple performance objectives

  18. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Part 2. Integration of Transportation Investments Integrating the Various Program Areas Integrating the Various Performance Measures/Objectives

  19. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Integrating the Various Performance Measures/Objectives Integration of Transportation Investments Pavement Preservation Integrating the Various Program Areas Bridge Preservation Roadside Improvement Etc.

  20. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Integrating the Various Performance Measures/Objectives Integration of Transportation Investments SAFETY MOBILITY ECON DEV. ETC Pavement Preservation Integrating the Various Program Areas Bridge Preservation Roadside Improvement Etc.

  21. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Integrating the Various Performance Measures/Objectives Question: Consider packing stuff in your bag this morning What factors did you consider? Item weight Usefulness to my person Item volume Usefulness to the day’s business

  22. The Knapsack problem – conceptual illustration

  23. “Project” selection – conceptual illustration Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Decision Variables X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 X12 ITEMS Reward r1 r2 r3 r4 r5 r6 r7 r8 r9 r10 r11 r12 Cost c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6 c7 c8 c9 c10 c11 c12 • “Cost”, disbenefit, or disutility, could be: • The volume of the item (b’cos the knapsack space is limited) “Reward”, usefulness, benefit, or utility, could be: - Your degree of satisfaction

  24. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments … benefits costs • Here, each item is a “project” • Each different alternative constitutes a “portfolio” • Possible portfolios are: • Selection based on following performance measures: • Overall usefulness to you • Overall usefulness to business • Overall weight of all items • Overall space taken by all items

  25. Generally, for the Knapsack problems … … Decision Variables X1 X2 X3 XN … Item OR Project Item N Item 1 Item 2 Item 3 … Reward r1 r2 r3 rN … Cost c1 c2 c3 cN Total Cost Total Reward Average Cost Average Reward

  26. Generally, for the Knapsack problems, … … Decision Variables X1 X2 X3 XN … Item or Project Item 1 Item 2 Item 3 … Item N Reward r1 r2 r3 rN … Cost c1 c2 c3 cN Possible Objectives • - Maximize total benefits • Minimize total cost • Maximize benefit cost ratio • Maximize Net Present Value • Etc.

  27. Generally, for the Knapsack problems, … … Decision Variables X1 X2 X3 XN … Item or Project Item 1 Item 2 Item 3 … Item N Reward r1 r2 r3 rN … Cost c1 c2 c3 cN Possible “Cost” constraints • - Total “cost” of all items must be less or equal to some maximum threshold, c* • Average “cost” of all items must not exceed some maximum threshold, c** • Cost of any individual item must not exceed some maximum threshold, c***

  28. Generally, for the Knapsack problems … … Decision Variables X1 X2 X3 XN … Item or Entity Entity N Entity 1 Entity 2 Entity 3 … Reward r1 r2 r3 rN … Cost c1 c2 c3 cN Possible “benefit” constraints • - Total “benefit” of all items must not be less than some minimum threshold, b* • Average “benefit” from all items must not be less than some minimum threshold, b** • “Benefit” from any individual item must not be less than some minimum threshold, b***

  29. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Part 3. Trade-offs

  30. What are the possible trade-offs? … Decision Variables X1 X2 X3 XN … Item or Entity Entity N Entity 1 Entity 2 Entity 3 … Reward r1 r2 r3 rN … Cost c1 c2 c3 cN By implementing a project instead of another, - what do I benefit? - what do I lose? In terms of the various performance measures (cost, safety, durability, mobility, etc.?)

  31. Applying the Knapsack Concept to Highway Facilities Management Optimizing Discrete Investment Decisions for a Network of Systems for purposes of preservation Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments

  32. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Reconstruction Rehabilitation Minor Maintenance Major maintenance Selecting projects from a vast pool of projects – what kind of projects?

  33. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Life-cycle cost Initial Cost Economy Safety Congestion Mitigation Added durability of the Facility Environment Selecting projects from a vast pool of projects – which factors influence your selection of projects?

  34. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Part 4. Uncertainty

  35. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Life-cycle cost Initial Cost Economy Safety Congestion Mitigation Added durability of the Facility Environment • What about Uncertainty? • For each project, impacts shown below are not fixed (certain) but have a range of values (uncertainty)

  36. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Summing Up . . . • Evaluation and Decision making based on multiple objectives has potential to: • Enable analysis of trade-offs among performance measures • Enable analysis of trade-offs among facility types • Include more stakeholders (users, community, etc.) in decision-making process • Enable more direct inclusion of stakeholder concerns • Reduce biased/subjective/parochial decision-making

  37. Uncertainty-Based Tradeoff Analysis for Integrated Transportation Investments Questions?

More Related