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Introduction to IPE

Admin. My OH: Tue 1:30-4:30 (RAJ B04)Did you read the syllabus?Did you get the reading?. 2. Agenda: Introduction to IPE. Studying IPEIPE as a Social ScienceIR

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Introduction to IPE

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    1. Introduction to IPE Class 2 – Thursday, 12 February 2009 J A Morrison 1

    2. Admin My OH: Tue 1:30-4:30 (RAJ B04) Did you read the syllabus? Did you get the reading? 2

    3. Agenda: Introduction to IPE Studying IPE IPE as a Social Science IR “Schools”/“Theories” Some Differentiating Questions Some of the Big IPE Questions 3

    4. Agenda: Introduction to IPE Studying IPE IPE as a Social Science IR “Schools”/“Theories” Some Differentiating Questions Some of the Big IPE Questions 4

    5. How should we study IPE? 5

    6. I. STUDYING IPE IPE as a Social Science IR “Schools”/“Theories” Some Differentiating Questions 6

    7. There’s a real question about the extent to which we do and should study IPE as a science. 7

    8. We’ll consider that question. But, first, let’s discuss what it means to study something “scientifically.” 8

    9. Scientific study has several defining features. 9

    10. Scientific study is positive. 10

    11. And scientific study relies on the empirical testing of models to explain the relationship between variables. 11

    12. Let’s unpack that. 12

    13. Variables ? Factors of interest that may vary in value May be continuous, discrete, or a “dummy” Examples Volume of trade (continuous) Type of Exchange Rate Regime (discrete) Status of membership in Int’l Organization (dummy) 13

    14. Theories and Models Specify relationship between variables Value of independent (or “explanatory”) variable explains dependent variable Example: Type of exchange rate regime (IV) explains the volume of trade (DV) May be correct or incorrect (i.e. may or may not comport with reality) Endogenous: determined within the model Exogenous: determined outside of the model 14

    15. Facts Descriptions of reality For our purposes, statements about the value of variables May be correct or incorrect Examples: Hong Kong has a fixed exchange rate (correct) The volume of world trade has increased since 1945 (correct) The United States has a fixed exchange rate regime (incorrect) 15

    16. Empirical Tests Theories/Models lead to testable hypotheses E.g. Fixed exchange rate regimes lead to greater volumes of trade. Hypotheses are predictions about the value of variables We test hypotheses by comparing predictions to observed reality Do we observe that countries with fixed exchange rate regimes have greater volumes of trade than countries with flexible exchange rate regimes? 16

    17. Correlation ? Causation Correlation: the values of two variables vary together BUT There may be spurious correlation: exogenous variable determines both of our variables Or causality may be reversed E.g. High trade volumes lead to fixed exchange rate regimes (rather than vice versa). 17

    18. Scientific study relies on an epistemology. 18

    19. I. STUDYING IPE IPE as a Social Science IR “Schools”/“Theories” Some Differentiating Questions 19

    20. You hear a lot about the “schools” of IR thought. Realism, Constructivism, Idealism, Liberalism, Institutionalism, &c. 20

    21. These terms, used tout court, mean almost nothing to me. 21

    22. There is simply too much variation within these “schools” for these monikers to convey much useful information. 22

    23. Many of the “founders” of these schools (Wendt, Mearsheimer) don’t even agree on who belongs where, let alone what defines each school. 23

    24. So, think in terms of either specific theorists and/or specific theories—meaning, responses to precise questions. 24

    25. And think in terms of multiple dimensions—not just a simple, one-dimensional continuum. 25

    26. I. STUDYING IPE IPE as a Social Science IR “Schools”/“Theories” Some Differentiating Questions 26

    27. Here are some of the essential questions we might ask. Each question constitutes a dimension along which we might organize different theorists & theories. 27

    28. (1) Where’s all the action? 28

    29. The Levels (Images) of IP At what level should we look for the key variables? The Levels (Images) Individual (1st): Hitler liked war Unit/State (2nd): Germany was Autocratic; Autocracies are bellicose System (3rd): There wasn’t a hegemon (single dominant power) to check Germany’s rise 29

    30. The Primary Actors in IP Who are the primary actors in IP? What ought to be our “units of analysis”? Potential Units of Analysis States Individuals International Institutions & Organizations Interest Groups and NGOs Socio-Economic Classes Transnational Social Movements (e.g. Feminism, Environmentalism, &c) 30

    31. The Types of Variables What types of variables matter? Material Factors Power Wealth Geography Material interests (income, &c) Ideal Factors Values Perceptions & Understandings Assumptions, Expectations, & Perceptions 31

    32. (2) Does process matter? 32

    33. Static versus Dynamic Models Static Models “Snapshot” of current situation History, momentum, &c., do not matter Many variables treated as exogenous Dynamic Models Process matters Virtually all variables could be endogenous 33

    34. Why use static models at all? parsimony—dynamic models are quite unwieldy. The question: which variables can we assume to be exogenously determined? Disagreement arises over answers 34

    35. (3) What makes us tick? 35

    36. Logics of Human Behavior Consequentialist (Functionalist) Actions chosen based on expected consequences Appropriateness (Normative) Actions chosen based on normative standards of right & wrong 36

    37. Narrowness of Our Interests Egoism Almost total emphasis on one’s own welfare Altruism Considerable weight given to the welfare of others 37

    38. Source of Our Interests Rationalism Preferences are exogenously determined Constructivism Preferences are endogenous to interaction Are we social or unitary actors? 38

    39. Agenda: Introduction to IPE Studying IPE IPE as a Social Science IR “Schools”/“Theories” Some Differentiating Questions Some of the Big IPE Questions 39

    40. We developed some of these questions on Tuesday. But there are some newbies. 40

    41. II. SOME BIG IPE QUESTIONS From Tuesday: Definition of “International Political Economy” Globalization The Shape of the Study of IPE 41

    42. (1) What does the “international” bit of “international political economy” mean? What is its significance? 42

    43. The simple answer: unlike domestic politics, there is no sovereign in international politics (by definition). 43

    44. But is that an accurate definition? 44

    45. Are there neatly ordered political entities that enjoy a monopoly of the legitimate use of force in their domains (i.e. “states”)? (Think Colombia. Or Sri Lanka.) 45

    46. And is all of the international system really anarchic? (Think North America. Or Europe.) 46

    47. (2) What is the optimal level of state intervention? Do markets generally work on their own, or do they require active management? 47

    48. (3) In so far as we have to prioritize one, should politics or economics be given deference? Which should be subordinate? 48

    49. II. SOME BIG IPE QUESTIONS From Tuesday: Definition of “International Political Economy” Globalization The Shape of the Study of IPE 49

    50. Is globalization inevitable? 50

    51. How would we measure this? What’s globalization again? 51

    52. Let’s say globalization is the minimization of the importance of space as an influence on social, political, and economic outcomes. 52

    53. In IPE, we might assess the level of globalization by measuring the level of trade, cross-border capital flows, and international migration. 53

    54. So, recalling Grieco & Ikenberry, is globalization inevitable? 54

    55. Measures of Globalization Trade: Share of Exports in World Output Peaked in 1913 This point was not surpassed until 1970 (G&I, 5) Capital: Flows relative to National Income Level of integration still has not reached the levels achieved among developed countries between 1870 and 1913 (G&I, 217) Migration: Movement relative to World Population More people crossing borders in 1900 than today (Hatton & Williamson, 1998.) 55

    56. It seems that the world was more fully globalized in 1900 than it is today. 56

    57. Damn. 57

    58. If globalization isn’t inevitable, then what explains variation in the last century of globalization? 58

    59. II. SOME BIG IPE QUESTIONS From Tuesday: Definition of “International Political Economy” Globalization The Shape of the Study of IPE 59

    60. What should the study of IPE look like? 60

    61. (Think: Cohen on the British & American Schools; Eichengreen on Economics versus IR) 61

    62. Should we consider normative questions? Or just positive ones? 62

    63. How scientific should our inquiry be? How rigorous should our empirical standards be? Should we only formulate refutable hypotheses? 63

    64. How much emphasis should we place on the state (versus individuals, NGOs, MNCs, &c)? 64

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