Luca cioletti the past, the present and the future of mobile apps ecosystem

1. Luca cioletti the past, the present and the future of mobile apps ecosystem © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials Who am I - originally from Florence, Italy - living for 25 years in Finland - degree in Electronic Engineering - degree in International Business Management - over 16 years of international business experience - executive and professional in the Telecom industry, - strategic thinker, - visionary and inspiring Leader, - consumer, - human being more about me on www.linkedin.com/in/gianlucacioletti

2. © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials This is my bet!!! What is changing in the apps market and how does it change? What are the trends? What would be the next “big thing” © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials This is my bet!!! What is changing in the apps market and how does it change? What are the trends? What would be the next “big thing”

3. © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials Everything started from the Business market <ul><li>- The Business market is a “rich” market. Why? </li></ul><ul><li>The first mobile phones were for Business people </li></ul><ul><li>the price was 24,000 Finnish Marks in 1987 (approximately EUR 4,560) </li></ul><ul><li>The world’s first GSM call was made in 1991 and the </li></ul><ul><li>first mobile “killer app / service” the SMS message was </li></ul><ul><li>sent in 1992 </li></ul><ul><li>The second mobile ”killer app /service” was the e-mail, in 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>the market was estimated for $3,5 billion </li></ul><ul><li>- Why Black Berry succeed in the Enterprise business sector? </li></ul> © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials Everything started from the Business market <ul><li>- The Business market is a “rich” market. Why? </li></ul><ul><li>The first mobile phones were for Business people </li></ul><ul><li>the price was 24,000 Finnish Marks in 1987 (approximately EUR 4,560) </li></ul><ul><li>The world’s first GSM call was made in 1991 and the </li></ul><ul><li>first mobile “killer app / service” the SMS message was </li></ul><ul><li>sent in 1992 </li></ul><ul><li>The second mobile ”killer app /service” was the e-mail, in 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>the market was estimated for $3,5 billion </li></ul><ul><li>- Why Black Berry succeed in the Enterprise business sector? </li></ul>

4. © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials … from the Business market to the mass market… <ul><li>- The mass market is a “poor” market (and volume market), but… </li></ul><ul><li>In the emerging markets most of the mobile services are SMS </li></ul><ul><li>based and to support the business </li></ul><ul><li>In 2008 the SMS market was $130 billion and expected to be </li></ul><ul><li>$224 by 2013 </li></ul><ul><li>In 2006 China Mobile made $100 million in 10 minutes when the </li></ul><ul><li>Chinese year changed and Chinese sent over 1 billion SMS. </li></ul><ul><li>- Apple app store: over 190.000 apps, over 4 billion downloads </li></ul><ul><li>average price ~ $2,5, but over 70% of the downloads are free </li></ul><ul><li>apps </li></ul><ul><li>- Mobile9.com: 6,517,712 members, 1,039,848 free stuffs, </li></ul><ul><li>9,836,049,530 downloads </li></ul> © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials … from the Business market to the mass market… <ul><li>- The mass market is a “poor” market (and volume market), but… </li></ul><ul><li>In the emerging markets most of the mobile services are SMS </li></ul><ul><li>based and to support the business </li></ul><ul><li>In 2008 the SMS market was $130 billion and expected to be </li></ul><ul><li>$224 by 2013 </li></ul><ul><li>In 2006 China Mobile made $100 million in 10 minutes when the </li></ul><ul><li>Chinese year changed and Chinese sent over 1 billion SMS. </li></ul><ul><li>- Apple app store: over 190.000 apps, over 4 billion downloads </li></ul><ul><li>average price ~ $2,5, but over 70% of the downloads are free </li></ul><ul><li>apps </li></ul><ul><li>- Mobile9.com: 6,517,712 members, 1,039,848 free stuffs, </li></ul><ul><li>9,836,049,530 downloads </li></ul>

5. © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials The Convergence - In Platforms, PC <=> mobile - Apps <=> services Worldmate by Mobimate World Traveler by Psiloc Handy Shell by Epocware (Paragon) Snaptu Seesmic - Social Network <=> Community - Location based services - The Cloud © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials The Convergence - In Platforms, PC <=> mobile - Apps <=> services Worldmate by Mobimate World Traveler by Psiloc Handy Shell by Epocware (Paragon) Snaptu Seesmic - Social Network <=> Community - Location based services - The Cloud

6. © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials What iPhone and App Store changed in the ecosystem Everything!!!! © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials What iPhone and App Store changed in the ecosystem Everything!!!!

7. © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials From the developers point of view: <ul><li>- a clear business model 70/30 </li></ul><ul><li>an operator independent channel for app distribution </li></ul><ul><li>but the most important thing is the cycle of a company => in the </li></ul><ul><li>past the death valley was 3-4 years and now 1-2 years </li></ul><ul><li>also the “life” cycle of apps became shorter </li></ul>time growth death valley in the past today © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials From the developers point of view: <ul><li>- a clear business model 70/30 </li></ul><ul><li>an operator independent channel for app distribution </li></ul><ul><li>but the most important thing is the cycle of a company => in the </li></ul><ul><li>past the death valley was 3-4 years and now 1-2 years </li></ul><ul><li>also the “life” cycle of apps became shorter </li></ul>time growth death valley in the past today

8. © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials <ul><li>In the past operators “owned” the subscribers, the buz. model was based on </li></ul><ul><li>calls and SMS, now is data traffic, they see only bits, how to differentiate </li></ul><ul><li>themselves, how to keep loyalty in their subscribers? </li></ul><ul><li>Operator started to build their own app stores </li></ul><ul><li>they reduced the share from 85/15 to 50/50. </li></ul>From the operator point of view: Voice ARPU Progression, 2004-2009 ($) Non-Messaging Data ARPU Progression, 2004-2009 ($) © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials <ul><li>In the past operators “owned” the subscribers, the buz. model was based on </li></ul><ul><li>calls and SMS, now is data traffic, they see only bits, how to differentiate </li></ul><ul><li>themselves, how to keep loyalty in their subscribers? </li></ul><ul><li>Operator started to build their own app stores </li></ul><ul><li>they reduced the share from 85/15 to 50/50. </li></ul>From the operator point of view: Voice ARPU Progression, 2004-2009 ($) Non-Messaging Data ARPU Progression, 2004-2009 ($)

9. © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials From the handsets manufacturers point of view: <ul><li>All handsets manufacturers are now following iPhone </li></ul><ul><li>User Interface and User Experience are the key issues </li></ul><ul><li>Who will “own” the developers ecosystem </li></ul> © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials From the handsets manufacturers point of view: <ul><li>All handsets manufacturers are now following iPhone </li></ul><ul><li>User Interface and User Experience are the key issues </li></ul><ul><li>Who will “own” the developers ecosystem </li></ul>

10. . © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials From the VCs and investors point of view: <ul><li>- Today developers companies are smaller even single developers </li></ul><ul><li>Decision criteria for investments not based on revenues but on </li></ul><ul><li>users </li></ul><ul><li>buz. model for apps in future will be based on ads (the most) </li></ul>

11. . © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials Conclusions <ul><li>- Data packages => roaming, still an important and big issue </li></ul><ul><li>Content discovery => how do I (developer) ensure that people notice my app? </li></ul><ul><li>How do I (consumer) find new content? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>- Now nearly 200,000 apps on App Store, 50,000 in Android Market, ~10,000 in OVI Store, ~6,000 in BB </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> App World etc…. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>- Monetisation models: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>- Pay-Per-Download </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- freemium with in-app billing mechanism </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- Ads </li></ul></ul><ul><li>- Apps as Marketing tool </li></ul><ul><ul><li>- Carling launched iPint app for the iPhone in July 2008: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> achieved 6 million downloads in four months </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Apps as Retail Mechanism </li></ul><ul><ul><li>- eBay launched its iPhone app in July 2008 integrated with PayPal Mobile as payment system: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> 8.5 million downloads (around 15% of iPhone users) by April 2010 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Emerging/developing markets account for 79% of mobile subscribers but just </li></ul><ul><li>31% of all non-voice revenues </li></ul><ul><li>- In emerging/developing markets the first web experience through mobile </li></ul>

12. . © 2009 Nokia V1-Filename.ppt / YYYY-MM-DD / Initials Thanks!!!