Islam & China – Remaking Southeast Asia?

1. Islam & China – Remaking Southeast Asia? University of Chicago Graduate School of Business International Roundtable June 21, 2007

2. End of History or Clash of Civilizations? • Francis Fukuyama • Liberal democracy and Western values prevail • Sam Huntington • Age of ideology over, but world reverts to cultural base of conflict • Two “challenger civilizations” – Sinic (China, Korea, etc.) and Muslim World

3. Huntington’sMap of Major Civilizations

5. Diversity “Southeast Asia nurtures such rank and exuberant variegation of language, custom, and subsistence mode that it is scarcely possible to focus the jumbled pieces into a coherent image.” --Stanley J. O’Connor

6. Main Political Forces • Democratization • Military • Economic & cultural elites • Rural & urban poor • Ethnicity • Religion

7. Democratization • Democracy • Legitimacy • Effectiveness • Security • Prosperity • Moral authority of leader • Most important where there is lack of confidence in the institutions of law to protect against abuse of power • National identity

8. Military • Organized • National reach • Protectors of national security • Fight for independence, against insurgencies • Avenue for upward mobility

9. Economic & Cultural Elites • Chinese business • Wealthy families • Royalty • Religious leaders • Educators

10. Rural & Urban Poor • “People power” • Poverty base of revolutionary movements • Populist democratic movements

11. Ethnicity • Chinese economic power • South Asians • Indigenous people • Malay “bumiputra” • Hill tribes • Multiplicity of ethnic groups may mitigate

12. Religion • Multiple religious influences, but • Clear religious majorities • Buddhist Thailand • Moslem Malaysia & Indonesia • Christian Philippines • Disadvantaged religious minorities • Christians in Indonesia • Moslems in Thailand and the Philippines

13. Moslems in SE Asia • More than 200 million Muslims in SE Asia (almost 20% of world’s 1.2 billion Muslims) • Arab-Muslim traders spread Islam since the seventh century (reached SE Asia in 1300s) • Minorities (localized communities) in • Buddhist Thailand & Myanmar • Christian Philippines • Majorities in Malaysia & Indonesia

14. Jakarta's Istiqlal Mosque

15. Historical Overlays • Ancient foundations • Stone age (java man, etc.) • Australonesian, Polynesian, Malay • Asian commerce • East – Chinese • South – Indian • West – Arab • Commerce also brought religion, customs and court practices

19. European Colonization • Portuguese, Spanish, British, French, Dutch • Political, economic & cultural • Covered most of Southeast Asia • Indonesia – Portuguese, then British, then Dutch • Philippines – Spain, then US • Burma & Malaysia – British • Indochina (Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia) – French • Thailand – squeezed but never under European rule

20. Bandung Conference 1955 • Organized by Egypt, Indonesia, Burma, Ceylon, India & Pakistan • 29 Asian and African nations attended • Sukarno & Nehru key speeches • Promote economic and cultural cooperation and oppose colonialism • China role – eased fears • Led to nonaligned movement (1961)

21. Threat of Communism • Most SE Asian countries became independent during cold war era • Communism was the major revolutionary political force • With decline of communism, religious and ethnic differences gain significance

22. Mixed Issues • Ethnic v. Religious divisions • Ethnic & religious minorities in Thailand and the Philippines • Islamic majorities in multi-ethnic Malaysia and Indonesia – Chinese minority with economic power • Both situations worked against Islamic political dominance

23. Area: 514,000 sq. mi. Population: 64,631,595 GDP per capita: $9,100 (PPP) Export economy Agriculture Manufactured goods Thailand

24. Thailand • Buddhist majority • Only SE Asian country never under European rule • Intermittent democracy/military rule • King’s strong influence • Militant Muslim minority in south

25. Democracy vs. Military Rule • Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in 1932 • First democratically elected PM in 1946 • Army took back power in 1947 • Phibun, Sarit, Thanom • Thai values – order, hierarchy, religion • 1970s – peasant/student unrest • Democratically elected governments • Military continued periodic intervention • Currently devising 17th constitution

26. Coup Needs King’s Support Yellow ribbons symbolize allegiance to the King

27. Sufficiency Economics • Capitalism & globalization • Reckless growth, crisis • Too much liquidity/investment? • King’s concern for poor people and the environment • Capitalist Thaksin programs helped the poor • Military – recent inept economic measures

28. Insurgency • Communist insurgency in north and northeast no longer active • Malay insurgency in south goes back 100 years – recently heated up • Attacks on schools – symbols of Thai efforts to force assimilation • Severity – links to global Islamic terror network?

29. Drivers of Insurgency • Economic • Poverty, inequality, exploitation • Social • Ethnic or class grievances • Political • Oppressive government • Military/police brutality • Foreign occupation • Religious • Purely religious • Linked to local issues • Linked to global movements

31. Philippines • Area: 300,000 sq. mi. • Population: 89,468,677 • GNP per capita: $5,000 (PPP) • Economy • Debt (69% of GDP) and inefficiency • Industry, services, agriculture • Remittances

32. Philippines • Catholic Spain evangelized most of the country – Muslim remnant minority ethnic groups • US defeated Spain, took over administration • Fought 14 year war against Filippino insurgents seeking independence • Ultimately supported democratic self-governance - focus on education and legal system

33. Political Forces • Mainstream politics • Elite families & cronies • Weak, fluid political parties • Rebels • Communists • Muslim successionists • Catholic Church influential

34. Democracy in Decline? • Marcos took dictatorial power – forced out by “people power” revolution • Last President (Estrada) forced to step down • Accusations of election irregularity on the part of the current President (Arroyo) • Proposals to change government to parliamentary style

35. Insurgents in the Philippines • New People’s Army (NPA) • Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) • Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) • Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG)

36. NPA

37. Moros – Centuries of Insurgency • Islam reached southern Philippines in 14th century • Spanish arrived in the north soon after • Moros fought Spanish and initially welcomed Americans • Soon proved difficult foe for US (1902-1913) • Juramentado – suicide attacks on civilians • Fought Japanese • Objected to position in Philippine Republic

38. MNLF & MILF • Moro National Liberation Front formed in 1969 by university students in Philippines and Mid East • Support from Libya and elsewhere • Leadership split – 1989, Moro Islamic Liberation Front • MILF smaller but more militant

40. Abu Sayyaf • Small but brutal group • Wahabi influenced/financed • Afghanistan fight experience • Al-Qaeda connection

41. Common Themes • Problems of governance • Governments unable to deliver benefits equitably • Democratic governments supported by poor brought down by educated elites • Militant insurgencies • Suppressed Islam minorities • Seek local autonomy • Connection to external support

42. Malaysia Population: 24,385,858 GDP per capita (PPP): $12,700

43. Mixed Progress • Solid economic growth, but • Dominant party autocracy and • Social (ethnic) tensions

44. Political Forces • Constitutional monarchy • Position of king rotates • King is not a significant political force • Ruling coalition • United Malays National Organization (UMNO) • Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) • Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) • Opposition • Partia Islam se Malaysia (PAS) • Democratic Action Party (DAP) • Chinese base

45. Coalition of Elites • MCA and MIC in alliance with UMNO • Barisan National (BN) coalition formed in 1946, dominated by UMNO • Have won every election • Economic disparities, social tensions & race riots led to measures to favor Malay • Economic growth kept opposition at bay • PM Matahir Mohammed co-opted Islamic issues

46. Islam & Democracy • Almost all Malays are Muslim • Religion, like race, provides communal identity • PAS grew to be largest opposition party in 1990s • PAS embraced democratic process in competing with UMNO • Anwar incident – failed opportunity for change

47. Stability • BN coalition – careful balance between appeal to communal bases and stability • Economic development central • Ethnic division remain – parties continue to all have ethnic/racial bases

48. Indonesia • Population: 245,452,739 • GDP per capita (PPP): $3,800

49. Indonesia • Pancasila (five principles) – official state ideology • Belief in one God • Just and civilized humanity • National unity • Democracy by consensus of representatives • Social justice for all • Held hundreds of ethnic groups together • Many Muslims wanted to add Islam and Sharia – blocked by Sukarno

50. Communism • After independence, widespread public participation in interest groups • Communist party (PKI) – • On the side of poor, workers & peasants • Opposed landlords, also Muslim local elites. • Military/senior bureaucrats managed economic assets taken from Dutch • US alarmed at PKI growth • 3 million by 1965 • Potential influence on other underdeveloped nations