All in a State of Publishing

1. All in a State of Publishing Michael Cairns Information Media Partners RLG Symposium, Chicago - June 11, 2010

2. “For Libraries and Librarians, the new premium on skills they have long cultivated as curators, preservers, and retrievers of collective knowledge puts them squarely on top of an information geyser in the sciences that could reshape medicine.” Jonathan Shaw – Gutenberg 2.0: Harvard’s Libraries Deal With Disruptive Change

3. Information Publishers are trailblazers Master Competent Learner Information Education Trade 1990 2003 1995 2015 2010 2001 New Dangers Rapid Investment Caution

4. Introduction and Agenda • Summary of the business environment • The future of the book (so far) • Publishing in the digital age

5. Publishing: Like Any Other Industry • Change • Dislocation • Speed • Technology

6. Characterizing the Marketplace today • Subdued • Anxious • Retrenchment • Confusion • Jealousy

7. Trade Big author block buster Technology – Products Technology – Distribution Retail stability Media tie-ins “Celebrity” Conflict over ‘attention’ Information Practicing professionals Macro economics Library budgets Government investment Workflow applications Technology innovation Key Segment Business Drivers Education • Government spending – • NCLB • Education Policy • Local & state • Adoptions • Taxes • Enrollments • Economy • Continuing education • Community colleges • Long distance • Vocational/Technical • Workflow tools • Evaluative • Administrative

8. Revenues Look Healthy ($,Millions) Source: BISG Trends Report 2009

9. New Book Titles and Editions: 2003-2010(E) Source: R.R. Bowker

10. Sales of Trade E-Books $ Millions Source: IDPF

11. Sales of Digital Textbooks: Percent of US Market Source: Misouri Book Company

12. Many publishers have been publishing in e-Formats for many years.

13. Pearson: Digital is 31% of revenues in 2009. Wiley, Elsevier, Wolters Kluwer have similar statistics

14. The Future of the Book (so far)

15. Observations • Revolution or reinvention? • E-Books highly segmented • Trade adoption driven by hardware and price • Education faster mover, academic less so • No significant innovation • Piracy – No consistent approach, no real data

16. Trade: “a giant mess”…“no massive change” • Top of the pyramid • Senior executives are focused on ‘E’ • Most publishers not addressing the transition • Reliant on supply chain to drive e-Content • Curation is little understood but will be important • Workflows are being redefined

17. Academic: “future hasn’t been invented yet” • Print is still ‘format of record’ – dissertations, tenure • Limited impact of e-Content migrations • Content rendering issues • Old publishing model: long lead times, high pricing, one dimensional content • Bastardized content: graphs, tables, equations, etc. • Potential to exceed Trade in application of benefits of e-Content • Indexing, bibliographies, source materials, etc.

18. Education: “much faster than anticipated” • E-Content migration significantly underway • Successes with “born digital” content – not just ‘migrated’ print content • Few publishers thinking about ‘e’ from scratch • E-Book hardware have failed (thus far) in education • Market develops to a ‘database’ and ‘subscription’ model • Content becomes ‘dynamic’ • Platform for services and content

19. “Many of our genre titles couldn’t be published without library buy-in. Of 8,000-10,000 units only 2,000 go to retail.” “I don’t understand how libraries are going to exist in a future market.”“We don’t love any of the models that exist for libraries.”

20. Implications • Patron and library data vacuum • Ambivalence and lack of awareness of library market dynamics: “What’s remote access?” • Relationship between loaning and buying • Characteristics of library patrons • Current patron behavior in an e-Content world • Can patrons be leveraged by publishers more effectively?

21. A library social world • Gathering readers together • The ‘lonely act’ of reading transitioning to community reading • Around the book • Building communities • Networked reading • Can librarians help this trend and/or participate in it

22. Publishing in the Digital Age Thoughts and predictions

23. Remember the Characterization? • Subdued • Anxious • Retrenchment • Confusion • Jealousy

24. Are things really that bad? • During 2009 Book Publishing a winner • No ‘resurrection’ during 2009 • Executives guarded about immediate future • Short to medium term problems with education and library funding • No bail-out!

25. Trade Re-evalution of value chain Direct to consumer models Publishers as retailers, retailers as publishers Information Software as a service Application providers Service outsourcers Embedded content Change is Coming Education • Expanded value chain • Solutions providers • Custom production • Content, Assessment, Remediation, Management

26. eBooks and eContent holds center stage • 2009 ‘Year of the E-Book’ • Apple’s (Hardware) role in book/media content will be defining • Google Editions: “The Cloud” • Content ‘rights’ challenged: Concept of ownership • E-Content rather than E-Books • E-Content another format option

27. Forecasting Publishing In The Digital Age • Publishing and technology will become synonymous • Web delivery, xml based and ‘open’ social network orientation • Expansion of solutions based publishing • Education publishers rapid adoption of solutions based applications • Slow publishers will loose to new entrants 27

28. “People want to be directed.”

29. THANK YOU.The United States of Publishing Michael Cairns Michael.cairns@infomediapartners.com Blog: personanondata.blogspot.com