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Making SOME Sense of the 2016 Presidential Election

Making SOME Sense of the 2016 Presidential Election. John G. Geer Vice Provost of Academic and Strategic Affairs Gertrude Conaway Vanderbilt Professor of Political Science Co-Director of the Vanderbilt Poll. 2016 Presidential Elections: Structural Forces. *Economy *2 Terms Obama

JasminFlorian
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Making SOME Sense of the 2016 Presidential Election

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  1. Making SOME Sense of the 2016 Presidential Election John G. Geer Vice Provost of Academic and Strategic Affairs Gertrude Conaway Vanderbilt Professor of Political Science Co-Director of the Vanderbilt Poll

  2. 2016 Presidential Elections: • Structural Forces *Economy *2 Terms Obama * Incumbent rating *Anger *Paid v. Free Media *demographics

  3. Economy, Incumbent, and Time for Change Model, 1948-2012

  4. Middle Class Anger

  5. Paid v. Free Media * one sided message by Clinton * presidential ads drove narrative 1988-2012 * Trump drives it in 2016 * Trump recasts traditional information flow?

  6. Since June 2016: Over 211,000 campaign ads 23% FL 18% OH 14% NC 10% PA 5% VA 4% CO 4% National Cable

  7. Since June 2016: Over 211,000 campaign ads 82% Democrat 18% Republican .8% Other

  8. Trump and Free Media http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/upshot/measuring-donald-trumps-mammoth-advantage-in-free-media.html

  9. Younger Voters Age 18-29 by 23 Points The role of changing demographics Popular Vote 51% • Hispanic Voters by 47 Points • AfricanAmericansby 87 points 48% • AsianAmericans by 47Points 332206 Electoral Vote More importantly, there were 7.7 million more female voters than male voters.They provided 53% of the US electorate in the last election cycle. • Obama won Women by10 Percentage Points

  10. White Vote is Getting Smaller Source: Roper Center Public Opinion Archives • www.ropercenter.uconn.edu

  11. Female Vote is Increasing Source: Roper Center Public Opinion Archives • www.ropercenter.uconn.edu

  12. Growing Hispanic Vote

  13. Hispanic Vote in Presidential Elections  Democrat  Republican

  14. The Democrat Edge States That Voted Consistently In The Past Six Presidential Elections • Democrats won 18 states plus the District of Columbia six times in a row, which in 2016 would earn 242 electoral votes, about 90 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. • In contrast, Republicans consistently carried 13 states over the last six elections, which in 2016 would earn the party 102 electoral votes, 38 percent of the 270 needed to win. • The average state that voted Democratic in the past six elections delivers 13 electoral votes, while the average state that voted Republican in the past six elections delivers eight electoral votes. Voted Republican every election since 1992 Voted Democratic every election since 1992

  15. And Who Wins????? • Obama in late July: 51% approve, 44% disapprove • GDP growth 2.1% • Third Term not a charm…. • But this model assumes equally qualified candidates and equal amount of resources….

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