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Opportunity for Higher Education: Consequences of Regressive Policy Choices American Association of Colleges of Pharmacy Seattle, Washington July 12, 2010 Tom Mortenson Senior Scholar The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education Higher Education Policy Analyst
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Opportunity for Higher Education: Consequences of Regressive Policy Choices American Association of Colleges of Pharmacy Seattle, Washington July 12, 2010 Tom Mortenson Senior Scholar The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education Higher Education Policy Analyst Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY Intro
Thesis • Progressive Policy Era: 1862 to 1980 • Federal policy initiatives • State policy initiatives • Institutional responses • Regressive Policy Era: 1980 to present • Federal policy choices • State retrenchment in higher education investments • Institutional pursuit of self-interest
Tertiary Type-A Degree Rates, 25-34 OECD & Partner Count. 2003
Tertiary Type-A Degree Rates, 25-34 OECD & Partner Count. 2007
Change in Tertiary Type A Degree Attain. Rates 25034 yr olds OECD & Partner countries 2000-07
Projected Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain Rate 25-34 yr in OECD 2010
Projected Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain Rate 25-34 yr in OECD 2020
Public Policy Realities • Changing demography • Changing economy • Globalization
Average Family Income by Educational Attainment of Householder
Policy Eras in the United States • 1862 to 1980: The Progressive Policy Era: • Morrill Land Grant Act created state universities • Teachers colleges for universal K-12 education • Community colleges • Need-based financial aid for students • GI Bill for returning World War II military veterans • Supportive services for students • 1980 to Present: The Regressive Policy Era: • Federal shift from grants to loans, abandon needs-test • State reduction in higher education investment efforts • State shift from need-based grants to merit scholarships • Universities and colleges lust for prestige and revenue
Distribution of Revenue Sources for Financing Higher Educ 1952-2008
Share of Federal Student Fin Aid Based on Financial Need 1964-2009
State Fiscal Support Operating Expenses Higher Ed per $1000 Personal Inc FY2010
Change in State Fiscal Support per $1000 State Personal Inc FY1980-FY2010
Ntl Average Resident Undergrad Tuition – Required Fees Public Inst
Share of State Student Financial Aid Based on Financial Need 1982-2008
Financial Aid Resources Recvd Full-time, full-yr depend undergrads 1 Institution 2007-08
Financial Resources & Barriers full-time, full-yr depend undergrad 1 Institution 2007-08
Mean Unmet Financial Need by Parents’ Income Quartiles 1990 to 2008
Mean Student Work/Loan Burden by Parents’ Income Quartiles 1990 to 2008
Mean Net Price to Family by Parents’ Income Quartiles 1990 to 2008
Opportunity Consequences of Policy Shift • Redistribution of college enrollments • Stagnation in college participation rates • Growth in bachelor’s degree attainment mainly in the • inherited privilege classes • Growing gaps in educational attainment between shrinking • majority and growing minority populations • Growing income inequality—higher education is an “engine • of division”
College Continuation Rates by Fam Income Quartiles 1970-2008
Estimated Bachelor’s Degree Completion by Age 24…Who Began College
Estimated Baccalaureate Degree Attainment by age 24 1970-2008
Change in Est. Baccalaureate Degree Attainment by age 24 1977-79 to 2006-08
Distribution Bach Degrees Awarded by Age 24 FamInc Quartiles 1970 to 2008
Share Pell Grant Recips Enrolled Public&Private 4-yr Fy1974-2009p