Economic Indicators/Statistics

1. Economic Indicators/Statistics INLS 227 Spring 2005

2. Major federal agencies involved in dissemination of statistics

3. Other federal agencies that use and analyze data • Council of Economic Advisors • Congressional Budget Office • Bureau of Economic Analysis (part of DOC) • D of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service

4. Non-federal agencies that produce and analyze data • American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association (ACCRA Index) • Cost of Living Index by major metro area and items • The Conference Board -not-for-profit organization • Federal Reserve System

5. Business Cycles • Attempt to understand cycle behaviors, thereby discovering key indicators • Long-term cyclical patterns • Grow and contract • Economic Indicators • Activities that have direct consequences on future events • Building permits • New business incorporations • Inventory levels • Orders by manufacturers for equipment • Average work week of production workers • Stock price fluctuations

6. Basic Statistical Concepts • Sampling • Use a smaller segment of the unit being studied to make inferences about entire unit. • Time Series • Like data collected that measure change over time. • Unadjusted, seasonally adjusted • Forecasts and Projections • Predictions of future, forecasts are shorter, projections tend to include more years. • Index numbers • Ratio of one number to another, used for comparisons. Can measure change over time or compare current.

7. Important Economic Statistics • Federal Economic Indicators • Index of Leading Economic Indicators • GNP: The National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) • GDP • Labor Force Data • Price Levels and Inflation (Consumer Price Index – Producer Price Index) • Other Key Indicators • Federal deficit • Federal budget • Balance of Payments • Money Stock (supply)

8. Locating Timely Economic Information • Obtain numbers immediately • Press releases to media • News wire services • Reuters, CNNfn, Dow Jones • Television, Radio • Consult standard release dates • CPI released by BLS during 3rd week of each month • Other Economic Indicators release dates – found online

9. Locating Economic/Statistics Information(quarterly, monthly, weekly) • Survey of Current Business • Monthly Labor Review • Economic Indicators • CPI Detailed Report • Federal Reserve Board • Treasury Bulletin • Employment and Earnings

10. Statistical Abstract of the U.S. Historical Statistics of the US Colonial Times to 1970 Business Statistics of the U.S. Economic Report of the President Handbook of U.S. Labor Statistics Economic Indicators Handbook International Financial Statistics Yearbook (online, cd-rom) Statistical Yearbook Locating Economic Information Basic Aggregators of Long Term Economic Statistics S&P Statistical Service

11. Locating Statistical Information • Determine which government agency or private organization is responsible for collecting data • Consult publications • Not perfect – Federal Reserve Board publishes Index of Industrial Production • Rely on guides to statistical sources

12. Using Guides to Statistical Information • Footnotes to Statistical Abstract of the US • Statistics Sources (Gale Publication - print) • Encyclopedia of Business Information Sources (print) • LexisNexis Statistical • Bibliographies and subject guides • U of Michigan Statistics • Guide to Economic Indicators (print) • Google, Yahoo … • FedStats http://www.fedstats.gov