Recap of Day 1 Panel

1. Recap of Day 1 Panel Day 1 Panel: Colonel (Sel) Mark Welshinger, OFCM (USAF)

2. Day 1 PANEL RISK ASSESSMENT: METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH Moderator: Colonel (Sel) Mark Welshinger Rapporteur: Mr. Robert Dumont PANELISTS - Ms. Karen Carson, Deputy Director, Office of Plant and Dairy Foods and Beverages, FDA Methods Used for Risk Assessment of Food Hazards - Mr. Clifford Oliver, Chief, Assessment Branch, Mitigation Directorate, FEMA Hazards U.S. (HAZUS) - Dr. Michael MacCracken, Director, National Assessment Center, U.S. Global Change Research Program, NOAA National Assessment of Global Change

3. Day 1 Panel - Key Discussion Results Ms. Karen Carson, FDA • Two type of risk assessments • Chemical • Microbial • Methodology • Identify risk • Gather data • Ensure risk managers involved • Construct model • Draw conclusions / recommendations • Send out for public review • Finalize document and develop action plan

4. Day 1 Panel - Key Discussion Results Mr. Cliff Oliver, Chief Assessment Branch, FEMA • Described Hazard U.S. project • Loss estimation tool • Originally designed for earthquakes • Being expanded for: • Flood (Dec 2002) • Wind [Hurricane] (Dec 2002 preliminary / 2005 final) • Multi-hazard (Dec 2002)

5. Day 1 Panel - Key Discussion Results Mr. Cliff Oliver, Chief Assessment Branch, FEMA • HAZUS Methodology • Input • Hazard data • Vulnerability • Inventory (built data) • Output • Damage • Loss data

6. Day 1 Panel - Key Discussion Results Dr. Michael MacCracken, Director, Nat. Assessment Ctr, USGCRP, NOAA • Goal of National Assessment: • Analyze / evaluate what is known about potential consequences of climate variability and change for the Nation… • Key findings: • Increased warming • Differing regional impacts • Vulnerable ecosystems • Widespread water concerns • Secure food supply

7. Day 1 Panel - Key Discussion Results Dr. Michael MacCracken, Director, Nat. Assessment Ctr, USGCRP, NOAA • May be “reasonable doubts” about the details…the “balance of evidence” indicates that human activities are altering the climate • Creating a significant risk of future consequences for humans

8. Day 1 Panel - Key Discussion Results Dr. Michael MacCracken, Director, Nat. Assessment Ctr, USGCRP, NOAA • Will take combined intellectual resources and consideration of educational, environmental, business, scientific, and governmental organizations to explore the available options and determine the course to set for the decades ahead

9. Recap of Day 1 Day 1 Panel: Colonel (Sel) Mark Welshinger, OFCM (USAF) 1A: Mr. Michael Buckley, FEMA 1B: Dr. David Cleaves, USFS 1C: Dr. Christopher Adams, CIRA, Colorado State Univ.

10. Breakout Sessions: Process of Conducting Risk Assessments 1A: Characterize / Quantify Exposure Moderator: Mr. Michael Buckley Rapporteur: Dr. Timothy Cohn

11. Breakout Session 1A - Key Discussion Results Characterize / Quantify Exposure • Language and vocabulary is inconsistent with respect to: • Hazards, e.g. floods versus volcanoes • Discipline • Cultural background • Socio-economic class

12. Breakout Session 1A - Key Discussion Results Characterize / Quantify Exposure • Analog of financial accounting: • Agreement on units • Agreement on definition of terms • Across cultures and socio-economic groups

13. Breakout Session 1A - Key Discussion Results Characterize / Quantify Exposure • Can we develop a consistent standard language for communicating exposures to hazards? • HAZUS as a model?

14. Recap of Day 1 Day 1 Panel: Colonel (Sel) Mark Welshinger, OFCM (USAF) 1A: Mr. Michael Buckley, FEMA 1B: Dr. David Cleaves, USFS 1C: Dr. Christopher Adams, CIRA, Colorado State Univ.

15. Breakout Sessions: Process of Conducting Risk Assessments 1B: Predict / Forecast Probability of Occurrence Moderator: Dr. David Cleaves Rapporteur: Dr. Rachelle D. Hollander

16. Breakout Session 1B - Key Discussion Results Predict / Forecast Probability of Occurrence • Foundation issues • Develop organizing framework and terms • Clarify assumptions underlying forecasting mission • Applications • Develop user list and model specifications for each user group • Develop guide for “customized” forecasts

17. Breakout Session 1B - Key Discussion Results Predict / Forecast Probability of Occurrence • Technical Quality • Foster research: • low probability/high consequence (lp/hc) events • comparisons and interactions among hazard processes • mitigation effects on lp/hc events • Communication • Develop methods for 2-way communication/education about event uncertainties

18. Recap of Day 1 Day 1 Panel: Colonel (Sel) Mark Welshinger, OFCM (USAF) 1A: Mr. Michael Buckley, FEMA 1B: Dr. David Cleaves, USFS 1C: Dr. Christopher Adams, CIRA, Colorado State Univ.

19. Breakout Sessions: Process of Conducting Risk Assessments 1C: Estimating Losses Moderator: Dr. Christopher Adams Rapporteur: Mr. Floyd Hauth

20. Breakout Session 1C - Key Discussion Results Estimating Losses • Define, standardize, collect and make information available • Small steps • Know what is available • Spatial component • Use/leverage current Working Groups

21. Breakout Session 1C - Key Discussion Results Estimating Losses • Compatibility of loss-estimate models • address data sharing problems • Incentives for data sharing among federal, state and private sector • Tie funding to data sharing

22. Breakout Session 1C - Key Discussion Results Estimating Losses • Other initiatives • Build capabilities for use by local gov’ts • Leverage current programs (PROJECT IMPACT) to gather more data (provide template) • Review current federally-sponsored RA/M research and publicize • Promote data collection as part of mitigation plans required by Stafford Act