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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook June 2002 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council

U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook June 2002 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council. U.S. Real GDP Growth. World Real GDP Growth. U.S. Net Farm Income. Agricultural Spending. Agricultural Spending. FED’s Major Currencies Dollar Index.

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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook June 2002 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council

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  1. U.S. and World Cotton Economic OutlookJune 2002Prepared by:Economic ServicesNational Cotton Council

  2. U.S. Real GDP Growth

  3. World Real GDP Growth

  4. U.S. Net Farm Income

  5. Agricultural Spending

  6. Agricultural Spending

  7. FED’s Major Currencies Dollar Index

  8. Indices: Exchange Rate & Cotton Futures

  9. U.S. 4134 Spot Price

  10. U.S. 4134 Spot Price and “A” Index

  11. U.S. Supply and Demand Million Bales Beginning Stocks 6.0 Production 20.3 Imports .0 Total Supply 26.3 Mill Use 7.6 Exports 11.0 Total Offtake 18.6 Ending Stocks 7.7 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 41.4% 2001/02 2002/03

  12. U.S. Cotton Mill Use

  13. Average Daily Mill Use

  14. Net Domestic Cotton Consumption

  15. U.S. Cotton Textile & Apparel Exports

  16. U.S. Cotton Textile & Apparel Exports

  17. U.S. Cotton Textile & Apparel Imports

  18. U.S. Cotton Textile & Apparel Imports

  19. U.S. Cotton Exports

  20. 1990 County (000 Bales) Japan 1,538 China 1,347 Korea 1,185 Indonesia 552 Italy 424 Taiwan 354 2001YTD Country (000 Bales) Mexico 2,393 Turkey 1,541 India 1,057 Indonesia 1,040 Taiwan 823 Thailand 736 Top Customers for U.S. Raw Cotton

  21. U.S. Ending Cotton Stocks

  22. U.S. Supply and Demand Million Bales Beginning Stocks 6.0 7.7 Production 20.3 17.8 Imports .0 .0 Total Supply 26.3 25.5 Mill Use 7.6 Exports 11.0 Total Offtake 18.6 Ending Stocks 7.7 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 41.4% 2001/02 2002/03

  23. September Corn Futures

  24. November Soybean Futures

  25. December Cotton Futures

  26. NYBOT Dec. Contracts since 8/1/00

  27. 2002 U.S. Planting Intentions Thousand Acres 2001 2002 % Actual Intended Change Southeast 3,610 3,548 -1.7 Mid-South 4,595 4,015 -12.6 Southwest 6,312 6,028 -4.5 West 1,010 905 -10.4 ALL UPLAND15,52714,496-6.6 ALL ELS 261 275 5.3 ALL COTTON 15,788 14,771 -6.4

  28. U.S. Supply and Demand Million Bales Beginning Stocks 6.0 7.7 Production 20.3 17.8 Imports .0 .0 Total Supply 26.3 25.5 Mill Use 7.6 7.8 Exports 11.0 11.0 Total Offtake 18.6 18.8 Ending Stocks 7.7 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 41.4% 2001/02 2002/03

  29. U.S. Cotton Mill Use

  30. U.S. Cotton Exports

  31. India and Pakistan Net Trade

  32. Chinese Net Trade ?

  33. 2002/03 Chinese Estimates ICAC USDA Cotlook Begin Stock 12,500 11,590 Production 20,600 21,150 20,655 Imports 1,800 2,000 1,375 Total Supply 34,900 34,740 Mill Use 25,700 25,000 24,300 Exports 200 200 230 End. Stocks 8,900 9,540

  34. U.S. Supply and Demand Million Bales Beginning Stocks 6.0 7.7 Production 20.3 17.8 Imports .0 .0 Total Supply 26.3 25.5 Mill Use 7.6 7.8 Exports 11.0 11.0 Total Offtake 18.6 18.8 Ending Stocks 7.7 6.7 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 41.4% 35.6% 2001/02 2002/03

  35. World Supply and Demand Million Bales Beginning Stocks 40.1 44.8 Production 98.0 91.0 Total Supply 138.0 135.8 Mill Use 93.5 95.5 Ending Stocks 44.8 40.6 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 47.9% 42.5% 2001/02 2002/03

  36. World Cotton Production

  37. World Cotton Production

  38. World Cotton Mill Use

  39. World Cotton Mill Use

  40. World Cotton Exports

  41. World Cotton Exports

  42. Foreign Cotton Stocks, Net China

  43. Farm Bill Impacts • DEMAND STIMULUS • Elimination of Step 2 threshold of 1.25 cents • Adds 400 - 500,000 bales • PRODUCTION NEUTRAL • Payments are decoupled from planting

  44. U.S. Upland Planted Area

  45. Grower Receipts

  46. Ginners Crushers Merchants Warehouses Manufacturers Producers Cooperatives

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