Why Mid Size Cities Grow and What It Means for Chattanooga

1. Why Mid Size Cities Grow and What It Means for Chattanooga David R. Eichenthal Community Research Council, Inc. Brookings Institution Center on Metropolitan Policy September 30, 2005

2. Community Research Council • Created in 1960s as an arm of the local United Way, with a focus on social service planning • Now, premiere source of independent policy and data research and analysis in Chattanooga region • Focus on community and economic development, crime, health, urban governance and youth and education

3. The Importance of Midsize Cities • More urban residents live in more cities like Chattanooga than in larger cities • In 2000, 22.9 million people lived in the 9 cities with a population of greater than one million • 24.3 million people lived in the 49 cities with a population of between 300,000 and 1,000,000 • 28.8 million people lived in the 185 cities with a population of between 100,000 and 300,000

4. Chattanooga, Tennessee • Tennessee’s fourth largest city with a population of 155,000 • Largest city in Hamilton County – population of 310,000 • Largest city in Chattanooga MSA – 465,000 • Some also think of Chattanooga as the largest city in North Georgia – Chattanooga would be Georgia’s fourth largest city as well

5. Chattanooga’s Changing Population • In 1940, Chattanooga was the nation’s 66th largest city with a population of 128,000 • Sixty years later, Chattanooga’s population is actually higher – approximately 155,000 – but is now ranked 132nd among all U.S. cities in population • Between 1990 and 2000, Chattanooga’s population grew by just 2%.

6. Population and Density in Chattanooga • In 1940, the City of Chattanooga contained just 27.4 square miles of land – “river to ridge” • Today, Chattanooga spreads across 143 square miles. • Geographically, Chattanooga is larger than Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit, Baltimore, Washington and Boston. • My hometown, Brooklyn, N.Y., has one-third fewer square miles than Chattanooga.

7. Population and Density in Chattanooga • While too much growth could lead to … Atlanta…population growth, especially repopulation of the Downtown, makes sense. • If Downtown Chattanooga’s population returned to its 1940 level – and density levels were maintained in the rest of the city – Chattanooga’s population would increase to 261,966 and place it among the nation’s 70 largest cities again.

8. What Makes Mid-Size Cities Grow? • If, in fact, it would be a good thing for more people to live in Chattanooga, it begs the question: what makes cities grow? • Focused on Edward Glaeser’s analysis of all U.S. cities of more than 100,000 • Resident income and education – the higher the education and income level, the more likely it is for cities to grow • Sector employment – cities with large manufacturing bases grew more slowly than those with strong service industries • Auto dependent cities grew, while pedestrian and mass transit dependent cities shrank • Foreign born residents contributed to strong growth rates

9. What Makes Mid Size Cities Grow? • Glaeser was looking at all U.S. cities greater than 100,000 • CRC has initiated research focused on mid-size cities, defined as those that were between 100,000 and 300,000 in population at the time of the 2000 Census • One immediate difference: Mid size cities actually grew faster – an average of 14.7% -- between 1990 and 2000, compared to 9.8% for all cities

10. What Makes Mid Size Cities Grow? • Population growth in 75 mid size cities exceeded 15% • CRC examined the role that 4 factors played in the growth of these cities – proximity, Latino migration, educational attainment and annexation • One or more of these factors was present in 71 out of 75 cities

11. Proximity to Large MSAs • In 47 out of 75 fast growing midsize cities, the city was within 50 miles of the center of one of the nation’s 25 largest MSAs • For example, 14 were within 50 miles of Los Angeles • These cities were largely “in the way” of sprawl from larger cities at the core • No city, however, grew solely because of proximity

12. Latino Population • 45 of the 75 fastest growing cities had a Latino population of greater than 12.5%, the national average. • In 28 cities, the Latino population was actually more than double the national average. • In 3 fast growing cities -- Laredo and Brownsville, Texas and Hialeah, Fla. -- Latinos now make up more than 90% of the population. • In the case of three cities, higher than average Latino population was the only one of the four factors present.

13. Annexation/Consolidation • For 15 out of 75 fast growing cities, the percentage of land area growth exceeded the percentage of population growth. • For example, Augusta Georgia’s 347.5% increase in population is explained by its consolidation with Richmond County in 1996. • In two cities, land area growth was the only one of four factors present

14. Educational Attainment • Just under half – 37 – of the fastest growing cities have a higher percentage of population over 25 with a B.A. or more than the national average of 24.4%. • In most – 21 out of the 37 – these cities were in the nation’s top 25 MSAs. These mid size cities were more like upper income suburbs than traditional cities. • But, in 10 cities, educational attainment was the only one of the factors present.

15. In these ten cities, high levels of educational attainment may be the principal explanation for population growth. Provo Boise Chesapeake Eugene Raleigh Durham Columbia Lexington Overland Park Lafayette Educational Attainment

16. Educational Attainment

17. What Does It Mean for Chattanooga and Other Midsize Cities? • Each of these four factors can play a role in Chattanooga’s future growth and some already are. • Major MSA Proximity • Latino Population Growth • Geographic Expansion • Educational Attainment

18. Major MSA Proximity • While Chattanooga can’t move closer to Atlanta, the importance of MSA proximity has already spurred interest in a high speed rail connection between the two cities.

19. Latinos • One of the most underreported phenomena taking place in our community is an exponential growth in the Latino population. • Between 1990 and 2000, Chattanooga’s Latino population tripled. The growth in Latino population accounted for 75% of the growth in overall population.

20. Latinos • Between 2001 and 2004, the number of Latino children in Hamilton County public schools doubled. • Based on EEO data, the number of Latinos employed in the Chattanooga region increased by 75% between 1999 and 2003 • Finally, the number of births to Latino mothers in Hamilton County increased by 8.7% between 2001 and 2003. Notably, this occurred as the number of births to African American mothers was declining. • There is every reason to believe that by 2010, Latinos will comprise at least 10% of the City’s population.

21. Geographic Expansion • This is precisely how Chattanooga has grown in population over the last 40 years. In March 2006, there is a new opportunity for Chattanooga to expand in this way. • Chattanooga can annex a significant part of unincorporated Hamilton County that could add as many as 20-30,000 new residents. • Of course, further expansion of the city limits would further reduce population density. • In addition to annexation, geographic expansion could also be achieved through consolidation with Hamilton County and creation of a Metro Chattanooga.

22. Educational Attainment: How Does It Happen? • The percentage of Chattanoogans with a college degree increased from 18.2% in 1990 to 21.5% in 2000. • Educational attainment rates increase in two ways: • Imports • Home grown

23. Educational Attainment: Imports • According to Current Population Survey data, about 5.6% of all Americans with a B.A. degree or better move either from county to county or state to state annually. • Interstate movers are more likely to be younger than older. Among adults 25 and older, 44.5% of movers were between 25 and 24 years old.

24. Educational Attainment: Imports • Some recent survey data suggests that newer residents of Chattanooga are more likely to have higher educational attainment. • A recent CRC survey found that individuals who had lived in Chattanooga ten years or less were almost 50% more likely to have a college degree than those who had lived in the city for 20 years or more.

25. Educational Attainment: Imports • One magnet for residents with a college degree or greater is the presence of a major college or university • In 8 out of 10 high educational attainment cities, there was a major college or university (more than 10,000 students)

26. Educational Attainment: Imports • Provo – Brigham Young (33,008 students) • Boise – Boise State (18,332 students) • Eugene – Oregon (19,992 students) • Raleigh – N.C. State (29,854 students) • Durham – Duke (12,223 students) • Columbia – South Carolina (25,288 students) • Lexington – Kentucky (25,397 students) • Lafayette – Louisiana (16,208 students)

27. Educational Attainment: Imports • Chattanooga’s largest university – University of Tennessee at Chattanooga – has just 7,300 students. Enrollment has remained largely flat for the last 5 years. • Creative Class Approach – attract college educated young people through waterfront development, downtown development and outdoor initiative

28. Educational Attainment: Home Growns • The other way to increase educational attainment is for more young people growing up in Chattanooga to go on to college and stay in Chattanooga. • The importance of educational attainment in mid size city growth also begs the question about the importance of public schools.

29. Educational Attainment:Public Schools • What role does a high quality public school system play in attracting college educated movers? • Can a quality public school system increase the number of home grown college educated residents?

30. Educational Attainment: Public Schools • It is difficult to measure school quality across jurisdictions across states. • Nationally, 89.3% of all students K-12 were in public school. • In 4 of 10 cities, number of students in public school exceeded national average. All but one of the cities had a higher percentage in public school than Chattanooga.

31. Educational Attainment:Public Schools • In 6 of 10 cities, 2001 four year high school graduation rates were greater than 70%. • In all but one city, public high school graduation rate exceeded Chattanooga’s rate.

32. Improving Chattanooga Schools • The good news is that Chattanooga and Hamilton County’s schools have undergone significant improvement in the last four years. • Test scores are rising – even in the lowest performing schools – and more students are graduating and going on to college.

33. Is Chattanooga Growing? • Given the increase in Latino migration, efforts to attract college educated newcomers and improvements to the public schools, is there any sign that Chattanooga is growing?