Duke Blackjack Team

1. Duke Blackjack Team “Blackjack. Is. Beatable.”

2. Develop skills and techniques to turn your knowledge into a significant edge over casinos Analyze the statistical variance and deviation based on certain types of play to create a long-term strategy Put the skills and study to the test in mock casino runs and, eventually, utilize the skills in actual casinos to make money through team play Organize and host a casino night charity event next spring (hopefully to continue annually) Goals of the DBT

3. A Little History / Terminology, I • In 1962 Dr. Edward O. Thorp was the first to develop a system to keep track of how many high cards were left in the shoe and published the system in his book Beat the Dealer. This system is commonly known as card counting, and gives a player an advantage over the house based on the fact that a player earns 3:2 on her bet when she gets blackjack • In the late 70’s card counting was revolutionized by Ken Uston who was the first to develop a system of team play revolving around the “big player” who was called into hot shoes by teammates posted at various tables

4. A Little History / Terminology, II • As casinos became progressively better at recognizing card counters based on the numerous changes in betting units throughout a shoe, they began issuing life bans on counters from their casinos once they were caught. Private investigation groups arose, the most famous of which being the Griffin Agency, which made money using extreme mind tactics in order to investigate supposed counters, passing lists of known or suspected counters to the casinos.

5. A Little History / Terminology, III • Ken Uston decided to take action against the bans and, after failing in Las Vegas, sued casinos in Atlantic city by declaring that barring players unconstitutional. Though it initially seemed like a win for all counters, the case in retrospect made aggressive counting almost impossible in Atlantic City as the casinos backfired, dealing only a few hands from shoes, shuffling at random times, changing table maxes to less than 5$, and taking other wild actions when a suspected counter was playing at a table

6. A Little History / Terminology, IV • In the 1990’s two teams known as the Reptiles and Amphibians from MIT revolutionized counting, perfecting team play and developing advanced techniques revolving around the cut card and memorizing sequences in order to gain upwards of 50% advantages over the house on certain hands, making millions of dollars throughout their existence • Semyon Dukach was the first to describe their three main money-making techniques in the novel Busting Vegas as well as DVD recordings of his seminars where he taught these methods extensively

7. A Little History / Terminology, V • On September 13, 2005 Griffin Investigations filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after being sued by Michael Russo and James Grosjean, two professional blackjack players, after they reportedly were improperly detained and arrested based on Griffin’s suggestion that the two were counters

8. A Little History / Terminology, VI Key Blackjack Terms: • Running Count: the amount of little cards (2-6’s) which have been played minus the big cards (kings and aces) • True Count: the running count divided by the number of decks remaining in the shoe; generally a good indicator of the density of good cards in the rest of the shoe. For every +1 true count a player gains 0.5% over the house • Penetration: the amount of a shoe actually dealt to the players, usually 67% of multi-deck shoes • Hot / Cold Shoe: shoe which progresses to a highly favorable / unfavorable count • Heat: the amount of attention a counter receives by pit bosses and others based on winnings or betting patterns • “The Eyes in the Sky”: security officials working the cameras in the casino

9. A Little History / Terminology, VII • Spotter: team members scattered around different blackjack tables who signal in gorillas or the big player when shoes get hot • Gorilla: team members who are signaled in to hot decks by spotters and bet large until the spotter signals that the deck has turned cold; note gorillas do not actually have to have any counting ability whatsoever • The Big Player: basically a specialized gorilla – the big player is signaled in by the spotter, receives the running count through code words, and then takes over the table, keeping track of the count himself. The big player usually is the most skilled member of the team as he has to not only count and vary his bets accordingly, but usually has to keep up an act in order to not get heat from the pit bosses based on his betting patterns • Basic Strategy: a chart of what action to take based on the cards being held by the player and the dealer’s up card. Basic strategy was developed by running billions of simulated computer hands and cuts the casino advantage to the smallest possible edge that one could achieve without counting or using other strategies

10. Methodology, I • Blackjack has long been known to be the single casino table game which, through the mastering of some relatively simple techniques, is actually beatable in the long run, allowing a practiced player to actually have a statistical edge over the house • A typical, average blackjack casino player comes into the casino typically at around a 4% disadvantage • Mastering basic strategy cuts this house advantage down to a fraction of a percent

11. Methodology, II • Though card counting seems like a daunting task, the level of complexity of different systems varies immensely • Every system gives a practiced player an edge over the house • Through the implementation of a simple “Hi-lo” count, a single player receives, on average, a 0.5% advantage over the house • In team play where each member is typically assigned a role as either a spotter, gorilla, or big player this edge can approach 1.5%

12. Methodology, III • The single-handed most underrated skill in blackjack is acting. In order to successfully pull off any type of counting whatsoever, the casino must think that you’re not only not a threat to their system, but rather just another compulsive gambler about to lose their money • Almost every team system requires acting on a large scale: big players on counting teams have to be showy and really act the part of a high roller, teams successfully employing advanced techniques always have a back story which explains their odd betting patterns

13. Methodology, IV • The most successful small teams were groups of 3-5 males and females who used wild stereotypes and ridiculous personas to turn the attention of the higher-ups away from their play style and focus on the pretentious team • Teams which were solely counters are often much larger in order to spread spotters throughout most of the blackjack floor, but still required the gorillas (usually pretending to be drunk) and the big player to put on wild shows

14. Methodology, V • Ken Uston’s most famous act was on one of his last interviews. While playing at Circus Circus in Las Vegas, Uston told his interviewer to meet him on the blackjack floor, but to call him by a completely different name and to not be surprised by his wild demeanor. When the interviewer arrived, Uston was dressed as a hobo playing single-deck blackjack in a crowded table. By yelling and being completely obnoxious, he was able to vary his bets from table minimum to table maximum in less than half a deck without any signs of heat from the pit boss.

15. Long-run Tables • Assume team play with a 1% advantage playing an average bet of $50 and a standard deviation of 1.1 times your bet (due to the occasional split or double down) # of Hands Expected Value Standard Deviation 1 $0.50 $55 100 $50 $550 10,000 $5,000 $5,500 1 Million $500,000 $55,000

16. Turning the Table, I Over time, many advanced techniques have been developed and shared which gives the player a significant advantage over the house: • “Numbers Variation” gives the player around a 14% advantage over the house by altering her tactics based on the true count on certain hands • “Key Card Sequencing”: When playing six hands on the first round of the shoe, there’s approximately a 15% chance that an ace will appear face-up. When an ace appears, the player memorizes a sequence of cards leading up to the ace and by using the fact that the dealers pick-up sequence as well as shuffle techniques are not random, can tell exactly when that ace will appear in the next shoe, giving the player a 51% advantage over the house on that hand

17. Turning the Table, II • “Non-random Shuffle Tracking”: Though not all shuffling methods allow for key card sequencing, NRS tracking can almost always be employed under certain conditions. When a player notices a pocket of hot or cold cards, he can watch the pocket through the next shuffle and cut in front or behind it, allowing the player to start the shoe with an absurd true count which gives an advantage unnoticeable by the casino • Cutting to an Ace: A player’s largest advantage comes through the player’s ability to cut an exact number of cards. Every member of the team at the table looks to see if the bottom card of the shoe is exposed at any point during a shuffle. If the player sees an ace, the cutter cuts an exact number of cards (usually 52) and proceeds to count down the number of cards played, betting table max when she expects the ace to come out. If her estimate was correct, she gains a 52% advantage over the house on that hand.

18. Turning the Table, III • Cutting to a Ten: When the team instead sees a ten, there are two ways to play it: I. The team can send the ten to one of the hands, giving a 14% advantage for that hand II. The team can use the ten as a bust card for the dealer, anticipating it to be the first card the dealer draws. By doing this, every hand on the table receives a 30% advantage. That gives the opportunity to have 180% over the house on an entire round! • Cutting 6’s: Though not often put into practice, low cards can also be used in one’s favor. By sending a five or six to the dealer’s hole card, every teammate in on the round knows exactly what the dealer has and can thus play accordingly, once again giving an insane advantage over the house, especially when the count is in the team’s favor.

19. Suggested Readings • Mezrich, Ben. Busting Vegas. • Mezrich, Ben. Bringing Down the House. • Uston, Ken. The Big Player. • Uston, Ken. Million Dollar Blackjack.

20. Still Interested? • Sign up at the front with your name and email to get on the mailing list for future meetings • Start practicing yourself! Many of these techniques can be employed and practiced even with single decks • If you have any further questions about the club or blackjack in general, feel free to email us at either mpb10@duke.edu or jls24@duke.edu