The Chinese Economy in the Past Three Decades: Achievements and Problems

1. The Chinese Economy in the Past Three Decades:Achievements and Problems Andong Zhu Tsinghua University Beijing IDEAs Conference 2007.6

2. Outline • Introduction • The Chinese Economy in the First Three Decades after the Revolution • The Achievements of the Chinese Economy in the Past Three decades • The Problems of the Chinese Economy in the Past Three decades • Conclusion

3. The Chinese Economy in the First Three Decades after the Revolution • The Initial Condition • The Achievement during This Period

4. A Family in the “Old China”

5. 1948: Hyper-inflation in China

6. The Achievements • Preliminarily Industrialized the Economy • Established a Independent and Comprehensive Industrial system • GDP Growth Rate Averaged at 6.68% per year during 1953-1978 • Life Expectancy increased from around 35 to about 67 years.

9. Outline • Introduction • The Chinese Economy in the First Three Decades after the Revolution • The Achievements of the Chinese Economy in the Past Three decades • The Problems of the Chinese Economy in the Past Three decades • Conclusion

10. The GDP Growth Rate of China and the World

11. The Rapid Increase of GDP

14. Outline • Introduction • The Chinese Economy in the First Three Decades after the Revolution • The Achievements of the Chinese Economy in the Past Three decades • The Problems of the Chinese Economy in the Past Three decades • Conclusion

15. Is the China’s Economic Growth Sustainable?

16. Pollution in the World:1999

17. The Over-dependency on Foreign Trade

18. The Over-dependency on Investment

19. China’s Changing Economic Structure, 1981-2003 (%)

20. The Changing Structure of the U.S economy, 1981-2004 (%)

22. Decreasing Consumption Rate

23. Income Inequality in China:1979~2004

24. Gini Coefficient for China’s Income Distribution Sweden 25, India 32.5, United States 40.8, China 44.7, Brazil 59.1

25. The Increasing Inequality • According to a recent study, • In urban area, the top 10% family’s income is 31 times of the bottom 10% family’s income, rather than 9 times, as some statistics show. • If we consider both the urban and rural area, the ratio is 55, rather than 21 times.

26. Inequality and Social Development In China

27. The Change of Life Expectancy in the World

28. International Comparison of the Expenditure Structure on Health，２０００

29. public spending in education / GDP, compare China and selected countries

30. International Comparison of Secondary School enrollment (%)

31. International Comparison of the Expenditure Structure on Education：１９９９ Average duration of early childhood education in yearsDurée moyenne de la préscolarité en années Average duration of early childhood education in yearsDurée moyenne de la préscolarité en années ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz M + WH + F ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz University ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire Primary educationEnseignement primaire ns qz Lower secondarySecondaire 1er cycle WomenFemmes MenHommes University ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Primary educationEnseignement primaire ns qz Lower secondarySecondaire 1er cycle ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz

32. The Excessive Savings in China: 1981-2004

33. The over deposit Gap between deposit and loan increased from 1995 (billion)

34. What are the Major Reasons of Inequality in China？ • Monopoly? • Corruption? • Privatization? • Foreign Capital?

35. The Laid-off/privatization Movement

36. The Laid-off/privatization Movement

37. Informalizing Labor Market

40. Share in Industry Output by Ownership (%)

41. Foreign Capital’s Share in Different Industries in China:2005

42. Share of Different Ownership in Different Industries in China:2005

43. Take away Profits, Leave GDPand… Pollution

44. Pollution in the World:1999

45. Searching a Job？Or a War？

46. Conclusion • The growth pattern of China has to be changed, or • it will not sustain • face the dangers of re-colonizing • Foreign Capital Controls the Economy; • Locked at the low-Ladder of the World Economy • How? • Strengthen the State and Empower the Working Class

47. EndThank You!

48. China’s Basic Economic Statistics, 1981-2001 (percent)

49. China’s Basic Economic Statistics, 1981-2001 (percent)