The Global Economic Crisis - Including Children in the Policy Response UNICEF-ODI 9-10 November 2009'

1. The Global Economic Crisis - Including Children in the Policy Response UNICEF-ODI 9-10 November 2009' Social Protection Responses to Crises and their Impacts on Children: Learning from Past Lessons in Indonesia and EthiopiaMaricar Garde and Jenn Yablonski

2. Outline of presentation Introduction Brief review of literature Case studies Description of programmes Problems Successes Lessons and insights from Indonesia and Ethiopia

3. Introduction Policy essay looking at Indonesia and Ethiopia’s experience with social protection programmes (SP) SP programmes implemented under different contexts but a number of similar challenges/successes arise Indonesia’s crisis stemmed from the financial sector while Ethiopia suffered from chronic food shortage—features present in the current crisis The paper is not an impact analysis nor does it try to make generalisations Highlights insights that are relevant to the present crisis

4. How do aggregate shocks affect households and children? Aggregate shocks tend to increase poverty and lead to a deterioration of social indicators in developing countries Impacts differ across households depending on wealth, geographic location, demographics and education Households resort to networks or Severe coping mechanisms (Ravallion, 2008): Borrowing or selling-off productive assets Switching to a less expensive but lower quality diet Withdrawing children from school and at times putting them to work

5. How do aggregate shocks affect households and children? Previous crises have led to: Increased food insecurity (Studdert et. al., 2001)‏ Maternal wasting in Indonesia (Block et. al., 2004) Reduced probability of school attendance in Argentina (Rucci, 2003)‏ Increased incidence of child labour in Tanzania (Beegle et. al., 2006)‏ Children may disproportionately suffer from irreversible consequence—malnutrition and missed years in school may alter children’s productivity and earnings during adulthood (Ravallion, 2008; Strauss and Thomas, 2008; Victora et al., 2008)‏

6. Analysis of Social Protection Programmes: Indonesia

7. Indonesia: National Safety Net Programme (JPS)‏ JPS introduced in 1998—without any institutional antecedent—as a response to the Asian Financial Crisis, five components are: Sale of subsidised rice (OPK)‏ Employment creation programmes (Padat Karya)‏ Scholarships and block grants Healthcare including nutrition supplement programme Community fund programme Funded by the national government, the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank Implemented by national agencies together with local and village authorities

8. JPS: Challenges and successes Inadequate coverage of most programmes except for the rice subsidy scheme (OPK)‏ Targeting mostly based on household income classification from previous surveys—missed those made vulnerable by the crisis Local-level intervention with the distribution of benefits improved targeting in some areas Households that participated in the OPK scheme reduced their probability of falling into poverty by 4% (Sumarto et. al., 2005)‏

9. JPS: Impacts on Children Households which benefited from the OPK scheme and scholarships saw a 4 % and 10% rise (respectively) in consumption (Sumarto et. al., 2005)‏ Scholarship programme reduced drop-out by 3 percentage points at the lower secondary school level which historically was the level most susceptible to drop-outs (Cameron, 2009)‏ Beneficiaries of the nutrition programme (supplementary food programme) achieved better nutritional status than those who did not participate from the scheme (Satriawan, 2006)‏

10. Analysis of Social Protection Programmes: Ethiopia

11. Ethiopia: Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP)‏ PSNP marked shift to systematic response to chronic food insecurity Two components: public works & direct support Aims to protect households from shocks: reduce food insecurity & asset depletion Households receive different combinations of food and/or cash over six-month period

12. PSNP: Challenges and successes Initial problems related to targeting, timeliness of transfers, and amount of employment per household Challenges prevented participating households from improving their food security in 2006 Modest improvements over time with repeated surveys in 2006 and 2008 showing that PSNP is protecting beneficiaries to some extent High rates of inflation affected the cash transfers—e.g. households in Amhara lost 56% of their purchasing power over 7 months Combination of inflation & different packages mean real value varies substantially between households/areas

13. PSNP: Impacts on Children Households receiving cash were spending part of it on education (15% of hhs) and health (29%)‏ Increased use of healthcare facilities, enrolment of children, and attendance attributed to the PSNP (Devereux et al., 2006; Slater et al. 2006)‏ But labour requirements affect selection and participation in the programme—unintended impacts for some women and children Work requirement leads to increased children’s work at home in order to replace adult labour being used for PSNP (Slater et al. 2006, Woldehanna 2009)‏

14. Learning from Indonesia’s JPS and Ethiopia’s PSNP

15. Lessons and Insights The nature of the shock affects both the social protection response of the government, and possibly the longer-term prospects for the programmes Ethiopia’s experience of periodic shocks led to the development of a more predicted and multi-year safety nets programme But certain factors such as donor dependence make the future if the PSNP unclear

16. Lessons and Insights The JPS did not continue after Indonesia recovered Fuel subsidies were continued but later phased-out, and Indonesia tried a cash-transfer programme in 2006 Poor coverage and targeting are often a problem but can be improved as the programme progresses Indonesia’s experience with using previous income classification highlights the need for real-time coverage during shocks > importance of investing in capacity (before crisis)‏

17. Lessons and Insights SP design needs to be gender- and child-sensitive to minimise differential impacts among households members Programmes in Ethiopia and Indonesia did produce some positive results despite implementation challenges—the most obvious impact is protecting consumption during times of insecurity Social protection can prevent aggregate shocks from causing long-term consequences, e.g. children by protecting nutrition and preventing drop-outs

18. Questions and comments are welcome Thank you for listening