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The Technology S-curve

The Technology S-curve The S-Curve Four Propositions At industry level, S-curves help explain why alternative technologies succeed or fail To achieve high performance, component technology must be improved as well as the architectural system design

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The Technology S-curve

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  1. The Technology S-curve Professor Aron Spencer

  2. The S-Curve Professor Aron Spencer

  3. Four Propositions • At industry level, S-curves help explain why alternative technologies succeed or fail • To achieve high performance, component technology must be improved as well as the architectural system design • S-curves are useful for descriptive analysis, but less useful for prescriptive analysis • Established firms may have an advantage with component related S-curve changes, but attackers have advantage with architectural changes Professor Aron Spencer

  4. Why does technology plateau? • Fundamental Natural Laws • Scale phenomena (too large or too small) • System complexity • Insufficient investment Professor Aron Spencer

  5. Types of Technological Change • Architectural Change • Rearrangement of the way components relate to each other within a product’s system design • Modular innovation • A fundamental change in the technological approach employed in a component, but architecture is unchanged. • Incremental Change • Improvements in component performance that build on established technology concept • Improvements if system design with no significant changes in component relationships. • Radical Innovations • Involve both new architecture and new fundamental component technologies Professor Aron Spencer

  6. Prescriptive S-Curve Strategy Follow the Grey line… Professor Aron Spencer

  7. Where is the S-Curve? Professor Aron Spencer

  8. Why Different Limits? • Nobody knows what the natural, physical performance limit is in complex engineered products • Perceptions of technological maturity may be highly firm specific • Limits may be influenced by resources invested. Professor Aron Spencer

  9. Relationship between technology adoption and performance Professor Aron Spencer

  10. Summary • S-curve analysis is more useful to see where you are/have been than where you should go • Managers need to balance where they place their investments • Don’t mistake an architectural technology change for a component technology shift • First movers have an advantage with these • Incumbents often lose (more to come…) Professor Aron Spencer

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