1 / 16

Deep Thoughts About Groupthink

Deep Thoughts About Groupthink. October 5, 2006. Brief History of Bad Decisions. Pearl Harbor: Advance warning of an attack: Military commanders received information about Japanese plans to attack Pearl Harbor.

Patman
Download Presentation

Deep Thoughts About Groupthink

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Deep Thoughts About Groupthink October 5, 2006

  2. Brief History of Bad Decisions • Pearl Harbor: • Advance warning of an attack: Military commanders received information about Japanese plans to attack Pearl Harbor. • Intelligence lost contact with aircraft carriers moving toward Hawaii. Failed to send air reconnaissance which could have given warning. • Result: No alert was sounded until attack. Loss of 18 ships, 170 planes, 3700 lives.

  3. Another Bad Decision • The Bay of Pigs Invasion • 1961 Kennedy and advisors tried to overthrow Castro by supporting an invasion of Cuba with 1400 CIA trained Cuban exiles. • Believed that troops could retreat to mountains that were actually on the other side of the island. Troops actually deployed in a swamp and were immediately surrounded. • Created alliance between Cuba and USSR which gave rise to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

  4. Groupthink Defined • “The mode of thinking that persons engage in when concurrence-seeking becomes so dominant in a cohesive in-group that it tends to over-ride realistic appraisals of alternative courses of action.” Janis, 1971

  5. Symptoms of Groupthink • Illusion of invulnerability • Many believed that the Japanese would never risk attacking the US. Admiral joked about the idea right before it happened. • Collective rationalization • President Johnson’s Tuesday lunch group spent more time justifying the Vietnam war than reflecting upon and rethinking past decisions.

  6. Symptoms of Groupthink • Belief in inherent morality • Kennedy group knew that some cabinet members had moral reservations about invading a smaller neighboring country but these reservations were never explored. • Stereotyped views of out-groups • Kennedy group convinced themselves that Castro’s army was so weak and popular support so shallow that a single brigade could overturn the government.

  7. Symptoms of Groupthink • Direct pressure on dissenters • People who disagree are ridiculed. Once, when President Johnson’s assistant entered the room, the president said, “Well here comes Mr. Stop the Bombing.” • Self-censorship • Following the Bay of Pigs invasion Arthur Schlesinger said, “my feelings of guilt were tempered by the knowledge that any objection would have accomplished nothing but gain me a name as a nuisance.”

  8. Symptoms of Groupthink • Illusion of unanimity • Absence of dissent creates an illusion of unanimity. Everyone might disagree but everyone thinks that everyone else agrees. • Self-appointed ‘mindguards’ • People who protect the leader from hearing disagreeable facts. Top NASA executive who made the decision to launch never heard the engineers’ objections.

  9. Signs of a Bad Decision Making Process • Incomplete survey of alternatives • Failure to examine risks of preferred choices. • Poor information search. • Selective bias in processing information at hand. • Failure to work out contingency plans.

  10. Evaluating the Theory • Groupthink is a hugely influential concept • Some have argued that it has more “heuristic” than theoretical value. • Is Groupthink still a useful concept?

  11. Illusion of invulnerability Collective rationalization Belief in inherent morality Stereotyped views of out-groups Direct pressure on dissenters Self-censorship Illusion of unanimity Self-appointed ‘mindguards’ How many symptoms does a group need to receive a groupthink “diagnosis”? Are some symptoms more important than others? Does a group experience some symptoms before others? Is each symptom unique? Or, redundant? Scrutinizing the Laundry List

  12. Hindsight bias? Question: Once we know the outcome (e.g. It Blew Up!) can we then “spin” the reinterpret events to fit the theory? If a stupid decision turned out well, was it still groupthink?

  13. Generalizability • What types of tasks or situations might groupthink apply to? (Beyond just decision-making?). Can groupthink be applied to everyday decisions? • Does a group need to be under threat? Janis theorized that they do.

  14. Cohesiveness • Cohesiveness (mutual attraction for the group and its members) is central to Janis’ theory. • Can cohesiveness ever reduce groupthink? • EXAMPLE: In a cohesive group, people may be less likely to censor their opinions and more likely to dissent

  15. Groupthink and strong cultures

  16. Verdict on groupthink • Is groupthink a useful construct? If so, why? • Why has groupthink survived for so long when other theories have been forgotten?

More Related