The Increasing Costs of Development - Threats to China’s Biodiversity -

1. The Increasing Costs of Development-Threats to China’s Biodiversity- Benjamin Anderson Kaitlin Dodds Amanda Ribeiro Environ 111 GSI: Menan Jangu

2. Systems Thinking: Increasing Costs of Development Let’s Investigate… Biodiversity Deforestation Population Growth Urbanization Energy Consumption

3. Population Transformation China's Total Population by Sex and Age, Census 1990 • 1949: The end of a revolution… • Increased health standards… • Population Hiccups… Source: “Data Population Growth.” IIASA. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/ChinaFood/data/pop/p_23c_m.htm

4. The Great Leap Forward... • Pre-1958: China’s economy is based on agricultural production • Great Leap Forward • Goal: Surpass Britain’s industrial output by 1972 • Method: Focus on steel production and coal and energy output

5. ...'Great Leap Backward' Effects of the Great Leap Forward (Crude Birth and Death Rate, 1949-1996) • Industrial yields increased… • China’s agricultural production decreased… • Massive demographic shock… Source: “Data Population Growth.” IIASA. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/ChinaFood/data/pop/pop_10.htm

6. Biodiversity Deforestation Population Growth Energy Consumption Urbanization

7. Urbanization • Why the Change? • The Great Leap Forward? • Cultural Revolution? • Deng Xiaoping? • Rapid Urbanization: 1990-2000 Source: ArcGIS data

8. Costs of Urbanization Expansion of the Urban Sector in China • Urbanization: It’s Contagious • Robert Blair: “Birds and Butterflies Along an Urban Gradient Source: Pannell, Clifton and Jeffrey S. Torguson. “Interpreting Spatial Patterns from the 1990 China Census”. Geographical Review. Vol. 81, No. 3. (July 1991), p. 309

9. Biodiversity Deforestation Population Growth Energy Consumption Urbanization

10. Energy Consumption • “The increase in per capita energy use prior to the last two decades of the 20th century is related to the evolving nature of societies as they move from primitive, to agricultural, to industrial, and then to technological.” James Galloway (1998: 18) Pictures: Microsoft PowerPoint Clip Art

11. Energy Consumption • China: Before Mao to Now • Powering the nation… with COAL!!!

12. The Costs of Energy • China contributes the second largest amount of carbon emissions. • Emissions are still growing!!!

13. Biodiversity Deforestation Population Growth Energy Consumption Urbanization

14. Effects of Deforestation …on China’s Biodiversity • China is one of the world’s major centers of biodiversity * • Forests have a rich array of species • China possesses ~2,800 tree species * • China’s forests and biodiversity have long been under threat due to logging and hunting, as well as the “conversion of habitats to form fields and human settlements.” * • At least eight large mammal species are thought to have been exterminated since imperial times* * Harkness, James. Recent Trends in Forestry and Conservation of Biodiversity in China. The China Quarterly, No. 156, Special Issue: China’s Environment. (Dec., 1998), pp. 911-934.

15. Deforestation vs. Biodiversity • High rate of deforestation (~1.2% per year)** • Problems with Protected Areas: • Remoteness and poverty of regions • Poorly paid and trained staff • Gaps in protected area system • Poor regeneration • “estimated that due to inappropriate logging practices, one-third of all forests cut before 1979 were replaced by degraded mountain slopes” * • Replanting “green deserts” • Lack of biological diversity * *Harkness, James. Recent Trends in Forestry and Conservation of Biodiversity in China.The China Quarterly, No. 156, Special Issue: China’s Environment. (Dec., 1998), pp. 911-934. <http://www.jstor.org/view/03057410/ap020147/02a00100/0>. **Li, Jing-Neng. “Comment: Population Effects on Deforestation and Soil Erosion in China.” Population and Development Review, Vol. 16, Supplement: Resources, Environment, and Population: Present Knowledge, Future Opinions. (1990), pp. 254-258. <http://www.jstor.org/view/00987921/dm993995/99p0118j/0>.

16. Biodiversity Deforestation Population Growth Energy Consumption Urbanization

17. Recap... • In China, we have seen that… • Population keeps growing • Urbanization keeps growing • Carbon emissions keep increasing • China is committed to addressing failures, such as its commitment to replanting forests.

18. The Next Step... • Threats to Biodiversity • Population Growth… • Affluence… • China has experienced rapid growth in its economic sector in conjunction with rapid growth in energy consumption • During the economic slowdown in the late 1990s… China saw energy and CO2 emissions decline. • Counteract Affluence… • Garbaccio et al. • Possible to control carbon emissions through taxation.

19. References • “An Energy Summary of China.” Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum. 7 April 2007. <http://www.cslforum.org/china.htm>. • Blair, Robert B.  “Birds and Butterflies along an Urban Gradient:  Surrogate Taxa for Assessing Biodiversity.”  Ecological Applications.  Vol. 9.  Iss. 1.  (Feb, 1999), pp. 164-170. • “China: Environmental Issues.” Energy Information Administration. 7 April 2007. <http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/chinaenv.html>. • “Data Population Growth.” IIASA. 7 April 2007 <http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/ChinaFood/iiasa_1.htm>. • Galloway, James N. “The Global Nitrogen Cycle: Changes and Consequences.” Environmental Pollution. 102, S1(1998), pp. 15-24. • Garbaccio et al. “Controlling Carbon Emissions in China.” Environment and Development Economics 4 (1999): 493–518 • Harkness, James. Recent Trends in Forestry and Conservation of Biodiversity in China. • The China Quarterly, No. 156, Special Issue: China’s Environment. (Dec., 1998), • pp. 911-934. • Joseph, William A.  “A Tragedy of Good Intentions: Post-Mao Views of the Great Leap Forward.”  Modern China.  Vol. 12.  Iss. 4.  (Oct., 1986), pp. 419-457. • Li, Jing-Neng. “Comment: Population Effects on Deforestation and Soil Erosion in • China.” Population and Development Review, Vol. 16, Supplement: Resources, • Environment, and Population: Present Knowledge, Future Opinions. (1990), • pp. 254-258. • Ma, Laurence J. C. “Urban Transformation in China, 1949-2000: A Review and Research Agenda.” Environment and Planning. Vol. 34. (9 Jan 2002), pp. 1545-1569. • McKinney, Michael L. “Urbanization, Biodiversity, and Conservation.” Bio Science. Vol. 52, Iss. 10.