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“Futures & Options Give You a Powerful Trading Advantage in the Booming Commodity Markets” Victor Adair Senior Vice President / Derivatives Portfolio Manager MF Global Canada Co . Calgary Resource Investment Conference April 12 & 13, 2008. Program Outline.
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“Futures & Options Give You a Powerful Trading Advantage in the Booming Commodity Markets”Victor AdairSenior Vice President / Derivatives Portfolio ManagerMF Global Canada Co. Calgary Resource Investment Conference April 12 & 13, 2008.
Program Outline • About MF Global – World’s leading broker in exchange traded futures and options • My Macro Market Opinions • Why I like to trade Futures and Options • How I trade / manage risk • Markets I am watching now • Questions
Disclaimer • This presentation is for information purposes only • Trading derivatives (futures, options, forex) involves risk of loss • Investments can go up as well as down and involve the risk of loss • Past performance will not necessarily be repeated in the future • MF Global Canada Co. is a member of the: • Investment Dealers Association • Canadian Investor Protection Fund • Toronto Stock Exchange • Montreal Exchange • Winnipeg Commodity Exchange
MF Global Ltd. – formerly Man Financial • World’s leading broker in exchange listed futures & options • 130,000 active accounts: financial institutions, industrial groups, hedge funds, asset managers, professional traders, private clients • Operates in 12 countries on more that 70 exchanges: 3,200+ employees • Daily average volume of 8 million lots, more than most of the world’s largest derivatives exchanges • NYSE listed: MF
MF Global Canada Co. • Leading Canadian futures & options broker • Full service futures & options, stocks & bonds, foreign exchange • Online futures & FX trading platforms • www.mfglobal.ca • www.VictorAdair.com • Vancouver, Calgary, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Toronto, Markham, Montreal
Macro Market Opinions Then: Credit Boom = Asset Boom + High Risk Tolerance • Many years of low interest rates / easy money • Moral hazard • Reaching for yield / don’t want to be left behind • Borrowers and Lenders - pushing the envelope on risk • NOW • Lenders: less willing or able to lend • Borrowers: less willing or able to borrow
Macro Market Opinions – (cont.) Commodities: A Demand Driven Bull Market • Common cause: rapid demand growth / supply shortages • China changed everything • Dr. Michael Berry – Quality of Life Cycle Commodities as an Asset Class • “Funds” are in the commodity markets like never before • Record open Interest and Volume in exchange traded futures Will Commodity Bull Market Continue? Yes, but with Wild Volatility!
Macro Market Opinions – (cont.) • Inflation / Deflation? • US credit crisis induced slowdown = deflationary • Monetary action = inflationary • Credit tightness = deflationary • Fiscal action = bigger budget deficits = inflationary • Rising food/fuel prices = consumers squeezed =deflationary • Demographic trends in West = deflationary • US, UK, CAD easing = inflationary • ECB, China steady/tighter = deflationary • De-coupling? Will the “Rest of the World” continue to grow if USA goes into a real recession? No = deflationary.
Macro Market Opinions (Cont.) • We are all currency speculators now: • 6 years of US$ weakness = 6 years of commodity market gains • Currency trends overshoot + then make “V” shaped turns • Current dramatic differences between ECB + Fed policies may precipitate the end of the Euro rally • Short term Bullish/Bearish Mood (Risk Appetite) in financial markets is determined by the question: Is the credit crisis over?
Why I Like To Trade Futures and Option Contracts • Mike Campbell interviewed Jim Rogers on Moneytalks Radio in October 2003 • Jim said, “The best way to trade commodities is with futures contracts. But most retail traders use way too much leverage.” • Following that interview I wrote “Five Reasons Why Futures Contracts Give You a Powerful Advantage” posted on: www.VictorAdair.com
Why I Like to Trade Futures and Options Contracts – (cont.) • Efficient • Transparent • Pure Play • Variety • Leverage • Easy to go short, open 24 hours, regulated market
What is a Futures Contract? • Specified unit of trade with an expiry date • Example: June 2008 Gold Futures Contract • 100 troy ounces / specified quality and delivery location • First Notice day: May 30, 2008 • Value of the contract at $900 oz = $90,000 • Minimum initial performance bond, approx. $4,000 • Leverage = 22:1
How I trade • I develop Global macro opinions • I may be100% in cash or up to 4x leverage • I read a lot of different research – www.VictorAdair.com – to form my opinions • I’m not a day trader but I watch the markets all day • Opinions – necessary (you have to have the courage of your convictions) and dangerous (you have to give up quickly when proven wrong) • I try to anticipate a trade before it is time to make the trade – then I’m ready when its time to pull the trigger • I need a technical confirmation that my opinion may be right before I execute
How I trade – (cont.) • I trade like a mercenary – (Dennis Gartman) when markets change I change • I challenge consensus – “what if” the popular idea is wrong, has run its course? • I try to judge the mass psychology – who has a weak / strong position in the market? • Changing psychology – not math – moves markets • All markets are spreads – try to think like a spread trader – what is X worth relative to Y? • Markets are inter-related – but relationships change • Options: Current I.V. relative to history - Use alone or in combination with futures
Managing Risk • I know practically nothing and cannot predict the future • Most likely risk: my opinion is wrong • Anything can happen • Patience – sitting in cash is OK • Add to winners, never add to losers • I know where I will get out (if I’m wrong) before I get in • Write down my reasons
Managing Risk – (cont.) • Max loss 1% – 2% per trade / use low leverage • Accept that most of my trades may lose money • No big losses, occasional big wins • Relationships between markets change, but markets always influence one another • Be aware of my prejudices – foundation of all opinions • See 22 Trading Rules – www.VictorAdair.com
Yield on US 30 year Treasury (falling IR boost asset prices)
Commodity Index: 6 years of a bear market in US$ = 6 years of a bull market in commodities
US Dollar Index: Psychology is extremely negative. Time for a turn?
Euro Vs. British Pound: Could be the “Canary in the Coalmine” for a turn higher in the US$
Euro Vs. Japanese Yen: Risk thermometer, week to week ups and downs very similar to ups and downs of G7 stock markets
New Zealand Dollar Vs. Japanese Yen: another risk therometer, look at the break in the summer of 2007 – another canary?
Canadian Dollar Vs. US Dollar: match this with a commodity index chart – overdone at 110.00
Shorter term Gold: a rally up through $950 resumes the major up-trend. If $950 is resistance look for new correction lows
Gold Reciprocal – are we pre-programmed to see bull markets? If this becomes a bull market then gold is falling in price
Gold / Crude Oil: all markets are spreads. What is X worth in terms of Y?
Copper: Does copper have a Phd in economics? A rally through $4 would be pretty impressive
Platinum – Power shortages at S. African mines drive prices higher in a market with low inventories
Crude Oil – Are “Investors” piling into the energy markets? Has rising global demand been cause for more than doubling prices in 15 months?
Minn (Hard Red Spring) Wheat – supply shortages, volatility, dis-connect with cash markets
Corn: global demand for better food, ethanol, funds, new all time high prices
Rice: food riots, hoarding, front page news, can a top be far away?
US bonds Vs. S+P 500: Bonds catch a bid as stocks fall – the classic flight to safety
Philly Bank Share Index: started to fall from all time highs before the “credit crisis” became front page news
Philly Housing Sector Index: Could this be showing signs of bottoming in the face of relentless bearish news from the housing sector?
Chicago Mercantile Exchange: it has been a “tripple play” on rising stocks, commodities and exchanges
Summary • MF Global is the world’s leading broker of exchange traded futures and options • The Credit Boom produced an Asset Boom + a great Appetite for Risk. • Futures markets give you a Powerful Trading Advantage • Opinions are necessary – and dangerous • How I trade / manage risks • There are great trading opportunities in a number of markets