Resource Planning or how do we ensure that we have enough capacity and energy to meet member needs ?

1. Resource Planning or how do we ensure that we have enough capacity and energy to meet member needs ? Stan Selander Senior Resource Strategist

2. Timeframes • Real time/day ahead (RT/DA) • Year (for MISO Capacity) • Long term (LT)

3. DA/RT timeframe • Energy only market • But capacity resources “must offer” • Automated forecasting tools, modified by judgment • Load bid into MISO energy market • Generation offered into MISO energy market • MISO dispatches ALL resources necessary to meet aggregate load requirements

4. GRE’s long-term resource planning • 10 to 30 years into future • System forecast by resource planning • Plan generation to a 50th percentile demand forecast, 50th percentile energy forecast • Resources planned/dispatched to serve GRE load

5. Long-Range Planning Process New & Existing Resource Characteristics (Capacities, Heat Rates, Emissions, Energy Patterns, Forced & Maintenance Outage Rates, Fixed and Variable Costs, Construction Costs) Externality Values Forecasts Forecast of Residential Consumers Historical Weather Data Financial Assumptions (Discount and Inflation Rates) Fuel Price Forecasts Historical Load Data Long-Range Load Forecast (Econometric Energy & Demand) Complete Spring Long-Range Financial Forecast (LRFF) (Wholesale Power Rates) Complete Fall Capacity Expansion Plan (IRP) Complete Summer Transmission Plans Financial Assumptions (Discount & Inflation, Rates, Margin & Dept Service Coverage, Interest Income) Overhead (Labor, Depreciation, Interest, Taxes & Insurance) MISO Interaction Each rectangle represents a process. Each color represents major inputs into the next process.

6. 1. Forecast Member Needs 4. Update / Maintain Integrated Resource Plan and Strategy 2. Analyze Market 3. Create Resource Options Resource planning process • Key questions: • Member requirements over time? • Power market developments & implications? • Options available? • Overall strategy?

7. Resource Planning Process 1. Forecast Member Needs 1. Forecast Member Needs 1. Forecast Member Needs 1. Forecast Member Needs 1. Forecast Member Needs 1. Forecast Member Needs 4. Update / Maintain 4. Update / Maintain 4. Update/Maintain 4. Update / Maintain 4. Update / Maintain 2. Analyze Market 2. Analyze Market 2. Analyze Market 2. Analyze Market GRE Resource GRE Resource the Integrated 2. Analyze Market 2. Analyze Market GRE Resource GRE Resource Strategy Strategy Resource Plan Strategy Strategy 3. Create Resource Options 3. Create Resource Options 3. Create Resource Options 3. Create Resource Options 3. Create Resource Options 3. Create Resource Options External influences Market Impacts Fuel Costs Environmental Policies Renewable Energy Requirements Generation Costs Efficiency Requirements

8. Capacity surplus/deficit

9. 2010 resource expansion plan

10. 2010 resource expansion plan

11. Resource addition timelineSizes represent possible partnerships or purchase contracts 200 MW wind 230 MW intermediate 175 MW peaking CN Reg. Filing CN Reg. Filing 2012 Resource Plan Filing 2 yr lead time 200 MW wind 3 yr lead time IRP Self-Serve Model Module E CN Reg. Filing 100 MW wind 200 MW baseload 7 – 8 yr lead time CN = Certificate of Need

12. Energy

13. MISO Source: MISO July 2009 Monthly Report July 2009 MISO – 50,911 GWh GRE – 1,094 GWh (≈ 2% of MISO)

14. Conclusions • GRE’s resource planning is based on member forecasts of demand and energy • The MISO market is a short term energy market and a one-year capacity market • GRE’s resource plan is based on long-term requirements to serve members’ needs