Food Security and the Food Value Chain : Issues for consideration

1. Food Security and the Food Value Chain:Issues for consideration John Purchase Agricultural Business Chamber (ABC)

2. Acknowledgement • Global warming - empirical evidence • Resultant Climate Change – higher incidence of more extreme weather phenomena, e.g. droughts, floods, heat waves, cyclones, etc. • Impacts of climate change on agriculture and agricultural water management uncertain • Effect on Food Security and the Global Food System: Biggest future shock?

4. Acknowledgement • Global warming - empirical evidence • Resultant Climate Change – higher incidence of more extreme weather phenomena, e.g. droughts, floods, heat waves, cyclones, etc. • Impacts of climate change on agriculture and agricultural water management uncertain • Effect on Food Security and the Global Food System: Biggest future shock?

5. Three Key Publications

7. Ray A. Goldberg DjordjijaPetkoski Matthew Preble lauraWinig Climate Management: The Biggest Future Shock to the Global Food System

8. How vulnerable are we? • SA generally deemed nationally food secure, but with a significant level of food insecurity at household level. • Many definitions to food security, but the one we will use is the FAO definition: “A situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”.

9. Components of Food Security • FOOD UTILISATION • Nutritional Value • Social value • Food safety • FOOD ACCESS • Affordability • Allocation • Preference • FOOD AVAILABILITY • Production • Distribution • Exchange Complex concept: Difficult to measure and evaluate. Purchasing power key to access

10. Anticipated Impact of CC • Biggest concern is impact on Production (Food Availability), this in turn impacts Food Access & Food Utilisation: - Water availability: rainfall, dams, aquifers, etc. - Disease interactions - High temperature stress - Cold requirement of temperate crops not met • Need to ascertain: 1. How high is our exposure to CC? 2. How sensitive is our agro-food system to CC? 3. How good is our coping/adaptive capacity?

11. Main agricultural water systems that CC is expected to impact (CGIAR, 2011)

12. Anticipated Impact of CC • Biggest concern is impact on Production (Food Availability), in turn impacts Food Access & Food Utilisation: - Water availability: rainfall, dams, aquifers, etc. - Disease interactions - High temperature stress - Cold requirement of temperate crops not met • Need to ascertain: 1. How high is our exposure to CC? 2. How sensitive is our agro-food system to CC? 3. How good is our coping/adaptive capacity?

13. Diagram of Food System Vulnerability (GECAFS, 2005)

14. Areas with >16% cropping

15. Rainfall CV

16. Our Challenge How do we produce more with less, and produce fewer greenhouse gasses? Need to still ensure food security, and value chains need to be competitive in the global food system. Need holistic and integrated models across all production systems. Focus also on developing /subsistence agriculture. Innovation and technology critical.

17. Innovation to address Climate Change • Innovative Water Management (drip irrig.) • Crop protection & Animal health/nutrition • Fertilizers (e.g. crop rotation with legumes) • Carbon Sequestration • Soil Conservation • Adjustments in Farm Practices • Adopting Good Agricultural Practices and New Technologies (Conservation Agric.) • Insurance Mechanisms

18. Measures • Clearly COP17 will not provide Global Deal on Climate Change, but some progress possible. • Emission reduction for SA agriculture not clear, but SA’s Copenhagen Pledge comprises 34% deviation from business as usual by 2020, and 43% deviation from business as usual by 2025. • Private sector concern: Being placed in a non-competitive situation due to the absence of a global accord/uniform standard. • IPAP and New Growth Path – lower C growth path. • Agriculture will require both mitigation and • adaptation policies and strategies

19. Adaptation: Approach of value chains • Issue of adaptation is critical to food value chains as impacts will not only affect business operations, but also the markets in which they operate. • Need to enhance information regarding the opportunities and cost-effectiveness of adaptation measures, so that action can be taken based on a solid knowledge base.

20. Adaptation: Approach of value chains • Implications of climate change will vary, creating both business opportunities and challenges. • Investment in adaptation can be both “soft” (e.g. stakeholder participation, etc.) and “hard” (e.g. physical installations, etc.). • How much adaptation might cost, and how large its benefits might be, are issues that are increasingly relevant both for governments and business.

21. Adaptation: Issues for Consideration • Education on the “state of knowledge” is needed. • Adaptation efforts need to rest on a sound economic basis. • Analysis on the costs and benefits of adaptation in key sectors remains important. • Business has the potential to deliver concrete solutions, but government will need to engage constructively with business.

22. Adaptation: Issues for Consideration • Incentives for adaptation. • Consider the role of public-private partnerships (PPP’s). • Consider the role of the insurance industry. • Financing aspects will be of key importance. • In view of the cross-border implications, international/regional cooperation will be essential.

23. Mitigation: Sector emission trends and % changes since 1990 Source: DEAT NIR, May 2009 • Globally, agriculture contributes ~14% of annual GGE, • plus 4-8% in land use changes • N2O & CH4 : By far biggest problem (N fertilisation & • Enteric fermentation) • Major sink for CO2, esp. forestation and soil carbon.

24. Way forward • Agro-food Industry committed to addressing adaptation and mitigation of CC in a holistic approach, BUT uniqueness of industry needs to be recognized. • Require balance between incentive and punitive approach to emission reduction. • Agribusiness recommends : - Support long-term innovation in clean technologies. - Utilise major potential of energy efficiency - Open trade remains important - Need to consider mitigation and adaptation of individual value chains – proper analysis NB. - Adopt environmentally sustainable land and resource practices - Important role of market-based approaches. -

25. For deliberation…… Given the potential cost burden of mitigation and adaptation policies, it is essential to keep an economic focus in mind when seeking for environmental improvements. If we do, it will go a long way to ensuring food security. If not,…………….

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