Vehicle Technology: 2 and 3 Wheelers in Asia: Current and Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Slide 1:Vehicle Technology: 2 and 3 Wheelers in Asia: Current and Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Narayan Iyer, Adviser (Technical), Bajaj Auto Ltd, Pune, India Workshop on Climate Change Mitigation in the Transport Sector 24 and 25 May, 2006 Asian Development Bank, Manila

Slide 2:Presentation Contents

Structure of 2 & 3 wheeler fleet in terms of types of vehicles, engines, technologies and fuels Known, potential and emerging technologies and their evolution Estimations of co2 emissions and fuel consumption of new technologies Available estimates of transport GHG emissions in India

Slide 3:Motor Vehicle Growth in India, 1971-2001

Source: Ministry of Shipping, Road Transport & Highways, Government of India, 2004. -- Rapid MV growth in India, as in other Asian countries -- Average annual growth rate 21% over last three decades; doubling period under four years -- Predominance of M2W vehicles, which provide affordable mobility; most rapidly growing MV; 2/3rds of MV fleet; India has one of largest M2W vehicle populations -- M2W grew 32% pa versus 21% for MVs over last three decades; doubling every three years-- Rapid MV growth in India, as in other Asian countries -- Average annual growth rate 21% over last three decades; doubling period under four years -- Predominance of M2W vehicles, which provide affordable mobility; most rapidly growing MV; 2/3rds of MV fleet; India has one of largest M2W vehicle populations -- M2W grew 32% pa versus 21% for MVs over last three decades; doubling every three years

Slide 4:Growth of 2 & 3-Wheeler Population in India

Sources: 1. Ministry of Shipping, Road Transport & Highways, Government of India, 2004. 2. Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers

Slide 6:Penetration of Vehicles in Asian Countries

Source: Alok Rawat, �Fuel Efficiency Improvement and Automotive CO2 Reduction Policies � an Indian Perspective� UNEP Workshop, Shanghai, October 2004

Slide 7:Matrix of Fuel, Technology, and, Vehicle Type

SI*: Spark Ignition Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) EV^ Electric Motor Hybrid EV** Combination of Electric Motor & ICE CI# Compression Ignition ICE Petrol includes blends with ethanol Diesel includes blends with biodiesel

Slide 8:Main Features of Engines Used on Indian Two-Wheelers

Slide 9:Main Features, Fuels and Uses of Indian Three-Wheelers

Slide 10:Progression of Indian Emission Standards for 2 & 3-Wheelers

All limit values for mass emissions in g/km under Indian Driving Cycle

Slide 11:Known, Potential and Emerging Technologies for 2&3�Wheelers

Slide 12:Expected Time-Line for Evolution of Engine Technologies for 2-Wheelers

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Slide 13: Changes in Technology Choice Resulting from Consumer Preferences & Emission Standards

The proportions of 2-stroke and 4-stroke have been calculated based on a study of the sales figures of various companies obtained from Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) and from the knowledge of the models produced by manufacturers -- Up to late 1990s, scooters preferred � advantages over motorcycles and mopeds; �family vehicle� -- Since mid-1990s, major shifts in urban incomes, buyer profile, market � individual mobility, appearance more important than family vehicle; motorcycles more popular -- Sensing emerging trend, major motorcycle manufacturer introduced Japanese made 100 cc, catering for emerging needs but also fuel economy (four stroke) � Japanese strength in 100-200 cc four-stroke MCs -- Since late 1990s, others followed, including scooter manufacturers; since late 1990s, motorcycle sales, bulk 100-150 cc, four-stroke have grown dramatically -- Motorcycle shares of M2W vehicle sales 21% in 1994; 43% in 2000; now 77%; since 2000, motorcycles have accounted for nearly all growth in M2W vehicles -- Introduction of 4s motorcycles in early-1990s fortuitous, coincided with stringent emission standards in 1996; 1996 and even 2000 standards easy to achieve with 4s -- 4s easy to accommodate on motorcycles, not on scooters, because of lower space, smaller wheels, lower road speed; so while 4s motorcycles will likely comply easily with standards till 2005, scooter manufacturers undertook major R&D and re-tooling to accommodate 4s; meanwhile, because catalytic converters not possible till 2000, when ULP available country-wide, they significantly improved 2s performance to achieve 1996 standards without catalytic control, and achieved 2000 standards with oxidation catalyst -- Because of 4s difficulties on scooters, and 2s delivers fuel economy similar to 4s, 4s penetration low on scooters, although increasingly being developed for scooters -- Because of growing use on scooters, but mainly because of dramatic growth of motorcycles, most of which are 4s, 4s sales and shares have increased dramatically; 97% of motorcycle and 71% of scooter sales are 4s; 4s accounted for only 5% of M2W vehicles on road in mid-a990s, now about 30% --Mopeds, low power, speed, cost vehicles for low-income users, typically 50-75 cc 2s engines, very popular in regional centres; 4s not possible on mopeds because of space and cost, so 4s penetration in mopeds close to zero; mopeds, whose share was 30% even in 2000, now dropped to 10%, because good quality second-hand motorcycles easily available, wide range of other M2W vehicles including scooterettes with various attractive features -- how consumer preferences and emission standards have influenced technology choice and sales is complex; while shift to 4s driven mainly by emission standards for scooters, driven by the market, and made achieving emission standards easier, on motorcycles; mopeds continue to rely on 2s-- Up to late 1990s, scooters preferred � advantages over motorcycles and mopeds; �family vehicle� -- Since mid-1990s, major shifts in urban incomes, buyer profile, market � individual mobility, appearance more important than family vehicle; motorcycles more popular -- Sensing emerging trend, major motorcycle manufacturer introduced Japanese made 100 cc, catering for emerging needs but also fuel economy (four stroke) � Japanese strength in 100-200 cc four-stroke MCs -- Since late 1990s, others followed, including scooter manufacturers; since late 1990s, motorcycle sales, bulk 100-150 cc, four-stroke have grown dramatically -- Motorcycle shares of M2W vehicle sales 21% in 1994; 43% in 2000; now 77%; since 2000, motorcycles have accounted for nearly all growth in M2W vehicles -- Introduction of 4s motorcycles in early-1990s fortuitous, coincided with stringent emission standards in 1996; 1996 and even 2000 standards easy to achieve with 4s -- 4s easy to accommodate on motorcycles, not on scooters, because of lower space, smaller wheels, lower road speed; so while 4s motorcycles will likely comply easily with standards till 2005, scooter manufacturers undertook major R&D and re-tooling to accommodate 4s; meanwhile, because catalytic converters not possible till 2000, when ULP available country-wide, they significantly improved 2s performance to achieve 1996 standards without catalytic control, and achieved 2000 standards with oxidation catalyst -- Because of 4s difficulties on scooters, and 2s delivers fuel economy similar to 4s, 4s penetration low on scooters, although increasingly being developed for scooters -- Because of growing use on scooters, but mainly because of dramatic growth of motorcycles, most of which are 4s, 4s sales and shares have increased dramatically; 97% of motorcycle and 71% of scooter sales are 4s; 4s accounted for only 5% of M2W vehicles on road in mid-a990s, now about 30% --Mopeds, low power, speed, cost vehicles for low-income users, typically 50-75 cc 2s engines, very popular in regional centres; 4s not possible on mopeds because of space and cost, so 4s penetration in mopeds close to zero; mopeds, whose share was 30% even in 2000, now dropped to 10%, because good quality second-hand motorcycles easily available, wide range of other M2W vehicles including scooterettes with various attractive features -- how consumer preferences and emission standards have influenced technology choice and sales is complex; while shift to 4s driven mainly by emission standards for scooters, driven by the market, and made achieving emission standards easier, on motorcycles; mopeds continue to rely on 2s

Slide 14:Methodology for the Estimation of Fuel Consumption and CO2 Emissions � 1/2

(a) Baseline fuel consumption of current technologies is average of �Type Approval Test� results of several models published by the Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI)*. ARAI calculates fuel consumption in km/litre using the �carbon balance method� from measured exhaust emission levels under �Indian Driving Cycle� run on a chassis dynamometer (b) The baseline data for average CO2 emissions (tail pipe only) of each category of vehicle has also been determined from the same source of data * Source: Bhanot B, Kulkarni U.,�Indian Auto Emission Profile�, Symposium on International Vehicle Technology, Automotive Research Association of India, 2001

Slide 15:Methodology for the Estimation of Fuel Consumption and CO2 Emissions � 2/2

(c ) The fuel consumption of new Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) technologies based on the indications in literature. (d) All the fuel consumption values converted to MJ/km by using appropriate values of density and Lower Heating Values of the respective fuels. (e) CO2 emissions of new ICE technologies derived from the fuel consumption by establishing a relationship between fuel consumption and CO2 emissions

Slide 16:Fuel Consumption Trends of Different Categories of 2 & 3-Wheelers Resulting from Various ICE Technologies

Slide 17:Progressive Reduction in Fuel Consumption of 2-Wheelers Resulting from Improved ICE Technologies

Slide 18:Progressive Reduction in CO2 Emission of 2-Wheelers Resulting from Improved ICE Technologies

Slide 19:Progressive Reduction in Fuel Consumption of 3-Wheelers Resulting from Improved ICE Technologies and CNG

Slide 20:Progressive Reduction in CO2 Emission of 3-Wheelers Resulting from Improved ICE Technologies and CNG

Slide 21:Methodology for the Estimation of Fuel Consumption and CO2 Emissions of EV and Hybrid EV

(a) The energy consumption (in MJ/km) of battery operated electric vehicle was considered to be 30% of the energy consumption of the basic ICE. This is based on the reported energy consumption of 0.06 kWh/km of the Bajaj three wheeler(1). (b) The energy consumption of hybrid electric vehicles has been considered as 85% of that of the EV based on literature for both the hybrid and electric four wheelers (2). (c) CO2 emission of EV and Hybrid EV based on ratio of the fuel consumption of the hybrid and corresponding basic ICE used in the category of vehicle Sources (1) Berry R.K., Schweitzer Samuel, Basu Tapan, Bedewi Nabih, Vincent Daniel, Dhungana Atulya, �Indian Zero Emission Transportation Program � a driving force for change�, International Symposium on Automotive Electronics and Alternative Energy Vehicles, Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, November 2001. (2) Ybema J.R., Lako P., Gielen D.J., Oosterheert R.J., Kram T., �Prospects For Energy Technologies in the Netherlands, Volume 2, Technology characterizations and technology results�, ECN, August 1995

Slide 22:Progressive Reduction in Fuel Consumption of 2 & 3 -Wheelers Resulting from Improved ICE, Battery and Hybrid Electric Technologies

Slide 23:Sectoral Emission of Carbon Dioxide from Energy Consumption, India

Source: �Sectoral Analysis of Greenhouse Gases in India: Choice of Key Mitigation/Abatement Options� ALGAS Project, TERI, December 1996

Slide 24:Estimates of CO2 Emissions from Vehicles in India - 1997

Source: Moti L. Mittal and C.Sharma, �Emissions from Vehicular Transport in India�, USAID, March 2003

Slide 25:CO2 Emissions from Transport in India � Various Agencies

Souces: 1. � CO2 Mitigation & the Indian Transport Sector�, TERI, 1996 2. A.P. Mitra �Green house Gas Emissions in India � 1996 update� National Physical Laboratory, 1996 3. Moti L. Mittal �Emissions from Vehicular Transport in India� USAID, 2003

Slide 26:Fuel Consumption Factors for Vehicles � Various Authors

Sources: 1. R.K.Bose & K.S.Nesamani �Pacific & Asian Journal of Energy 11(1): 31 � 49 2. Moti L. Mittal �Emissions from Vehicular Transport in India� USAID, 2003 3. N.V.Iyer �Unpublished data�

Slide 27:CO2 Emission Factors for Vehicles � Various Authors

Sources: 1. R.K.Bose & K.S.Nesamani �Pacific & Asian Journal of Energy 11(1): 31 � 49 2. Moti L. Mittal �Emissions from Vehicular Transport in India� USAID, 2003 3. N.V.Iyer �Unpublished data�

Slide 28:Conclusions 1/2

There is a rapid increase in the number of motor vehicles in India, the population being dominated by two wheelers, yet, vehicle penetration is among the lowest in the world Progressively stringent emission standards and customer demand for fuel economy resulted in manufacturers adopting new technologies to reduce emissions and fuel consumption that have also resulted in reduction in CO2 emissions

Slide 29:Conclusions 2/2

Adoption of more stringent standards for 2&3 wheelers in the coming years is expected to lead to the adoption of newer technologies which are also expected to bring about further reductions in fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. CO2 contribution of the Indian transport sector is estimated to be 15% of the total (1994-95). While the rapidly increasing population of vehicles may lead to an increase in this, the progressively reducing levels of CO2 emissions may have a compensating effect.