Synthetic Environment for Analysis

Slide 1:Synthetic Environment for Analysis and Simulation (SEAS)

Mark Prevette SEAS Contractor Operational Lead J9, Experiment Support Department, Analyst Division SYColeman Daniel Snyder SEAS Contractor Technical Lead J9, Experiment Engineering Department, M&S Division Booz I Allen I Hamilton

Slide 2:Outline

The SEAS Model Traits Goals Sensors Actions Behaviors Synthetic Environment Relationship to J9 Concepts SEAS Functionality Using SEAS Inputs Outputs

Slide 3:About SEAS

Slide 4:SEAS Agent Constructs

Traits Goals Sensors Actions Behaviors Provide the formalism to develop reusable modular computational models

Slide 5:Traits

Traits capture the characteristics of an agent. E.g.: Demographics (ethnicity, gender) Behavioral (aggressiveness) Physiological (height, immunity to certain virus) Traits realize diversity in agent populations

Slide 6:Goals

Goals describe the behavioral motivation of an agent An agent can have multiple hierarchical goals An agent might have different courses of action to accomplish a goal

Slide 7:Sensors

Sensors represent the probes through which an agent retrieves information from the rest of the synthetic world Sensors are categorized into: Messages Actions Environment

Slide 8:Actions

Actions represent the interactions of one agent with a synthetic world Actions can be directed against: Self Another agent A group of agents Non-human entities (eg. Infrastructure) Conceptual targets (eg. Economy)

Slide 9:Behaviors

Logic defines the behavior of the agent Behavior determines the decision that an agent make Different traits might produce different behavior, ensuring a wide spectrum of decisions in a diverse community of agents

Slide 11:Emergent Behavior

Emergent behavior is the behavior exhibited by a system that is not explicitly coded in its parts, e.g.: Birds flying in a formation Sands forming a dune

Slide 12:Agent within a Synthetic Environment

AGENT ENVIRONMENT Intelligence Emotions Social Group/Organization Behavior Mobility Sensors Goals Demographics Traits Susceptibility Intelligence Savings Group I D X S E U C T Financial Life Food Water Person Environ. Shelter Print Electronic Do Nothing Security Basic Communication Exposure Rumor True Infected Immune Well Being Communicate Carrier I S E D X C U nitiate earch valuate ecide E ecute ommunicate erminate Behavior Primitives T pdate Health Liberty Safety Environment Applicable Models Agents can be: Individuals Organizations Institutions

Slide 13:We needed a method to experiment with the EBO concept. How to measure DImE action effects on the PMESII. Current systems depended heavily on SMEs. In many cases we were unable to get DIE SME to participant. We needed an alternative. In proposing constructive simulation as a key to experimentation, the major concern is whether legacy-attrition-based simulations can support our new concepts. � With a little help, JWARS should be able to address complex effects based operations, for example. We needed a method to experiment with the EBO concept. How to measure DImE action effects on the PMESII. Current systems depended heavily on SMEs. In many cases we were unable to get DIE SME to participant. We needed an alternative. In proposing constructive simulation as a key to experimentation, the major concern is whether legacy-attrition-based simulations can support our new concepts. � With a little help, JWARS should be able to address complex effects based operations, for example.

Slide 14:Operational Net Assessment Systems Perspective

Political Military Economic Social Infrastructure Information Let me start out by talking about the basis of the Operational Net Assessment. The ONA Promotes knowledge base of adversary and ourselves by establishing a system of system analysis of the enemy Integrates national efforts towards objectives Enables precise application of force, at the right time, place, and reason PMESII defined Visual depiction of PMESII Node: a means to exercise adversary�s will Key Node: Node is a component of multiple systems Disproportional results for expended effort Node is vulnerable to attack Linkage of objective, effect, node, action Nodal analysis in the micro sense criticismsLet me start out by talking about the basis of the Operational Net Assessment. The ONA Promotes knowledge base of adversary and ourselves by establishing a system of system analysis of the enemy Integrates national efforts towards objectives Enables precise application of force, at the right time, place, and reason PMESII defined Visual depiction of PMESII Node: a means to exercise adversary�s will Key Node: Node is a component of multiple systems Disproportional results for expended effort Node is vulnerable to attack Linkage of objective, effect, node, action Nodal analysis in the micro sense criticisms

Slide 15:An Effects-BasedOperations Approach

Objective Destroy Global Terrorist Network(s) Economic (cut off funding) Diplomatic (build & sustain coalition) Military (remove Taliban regime) (destroy terrorist cells) Effects What has to happen to Red to achieve Blue objectives (no longer able to operate as an adaptive network with global reach) Integrated DIME Actions Key Nodes & Vulnerabilities Resources Information (�not a war on Islam� message) Changing the Way We Think � Actions The ONA is crucial to the EBO approach. EBO operations are characterized by: A more complete understanding of Red key nodes, their linkages and vulnerabilities (systems-of systems understanding and analysis) Early identification and integration of key IA & CoE �players� prior to, during crisis development & throughout execution � coordinated, synchronized & integrated Pre targeted, full spectrum assessment Real/near real-time situational understanding Dynamic collaboration with �fighters�, supporters and higher headquarters The ONA is crucial to the EBO approach. EBO operations are characterized by: A more complete understanding of Red key nodes, their linkages and vulnerabilities (systems-of systems understanding and analysis) Early identification and integration of key IA & CoE �players� prior to, during crisis development & throughout execution � coordinated, synchronized & integrated Pre targeted, full spectrum assessment Real/near real-time situational understanding Dynamic collaboration with �fighters�, supporters and higher headquarters

Slide 17:SEAS Features

Slide 18:SEAS Models

Slide 19:Synthetic International System

Slide 21:User Interface: Action Plan

Planner supports complex course of action construction

Slide 22:Visualization of Effects

The level of achievementof each effect is displayedfor the past 10 days