Chesapeake Bay TMDL

1. Chesapeake Bay TMDL May 13, 2009 2009 NPS/TMDL/WQM States Meeting Martinsburg, West Virginia Jennifer Sincock U.S. EPA Region 3 Water Protection Division

2. Portrait of an Ecosystem

3. Where are the Bay WQ Impacts?

4. Pollutant Sources to the Bay

5. How are we doing? Note: Some jurisdictions may be underreporting existing stormwater management practices. Data and Methods: www.chesapeakebay.net/status_reducingpollution.aspx

6. The science behind the TMDLs Land Use Change Model Bay Model Watershed Model Airshed Model Criteria Assessment Procedures 6

7. What’s the Scope of the Bay TMDL? • TMDL will establish loads for all Bay states • Nutrients, sediments • Oxygen, clarity/Bay grasses, algae • All impaired tidal water segments • All sources • Point source control thru NPDES • NPS implementation thru 319 funding

8. Not one bay TMDL but (as many as) 92 segment TMDLs

9. Impaired Segment TMDLs • EPA Regulations require TMDLs for each impaired Water Quality Limited Segment TMDLSD = ∑ WLASD + ∑ LASD + MOS TMDLSD = Segment Drainage TMDL WLASD = WLA from Segment Drainage LASD = LA from Segment Drainage MOS = Margin of Safety (implicit)

10. Segment Drainages for Impaired Segment TMDLs Potomac Tidal Fresh (POTTF) Potomac Oligohaline (POTOH)

11. Wasteload Allocation For Tidal Fresh Segments: WLASD = ∑ individual WLAs (tidal state) + Gross WLA (nontidal state) Other Segments: WLASD = ∑ individual WLAs (tidal state) • Determined by each state’s Implementation Plan development process and could include: POTW Industrial Stormwater MS4s Non-significant permits Others?

12. Load Allocation For Tidal Fresh Segments: LASD = Source Sector LAs (tidal state) + Gross LA (nontidal state) Other Segments: LASD = Source Sector LAs (tidal state) • Source Sector LAs would be based on each state’s Implementation Plan development process and could include: Agriculture Forest Other NPS Urban/Res/Road Atmospheric Others?

13. Bay Cap • The Bay Cap will be set for each pollutant (N, P, and sediment) to meet water quality standards at critical conditions (i.e. worst case scenarios) for the entire Bay as well as localized impairments. Bay Cap = ∑ Bay Impaired Segment TMDLs + ∑ Bay Unimpaired Segment Loads • (i.e., The Bay Cap based on 2003 Allocations would be 175 MPY for N and 12.8 MPY for P)

14. New York Pennsylvania Maryland District of Columbia West Virginia Delaware Virginia Basin-jurisdiction Caps

15. Preliminary Draft Allocations July/August 2009

16. Iterative Draft Allocations

17. TMDL Allocations December 2010

18. Building the Chesapeake Bay Nutrient TMDLs Determine the Bay cap load Establish the TMDL for each impaired segment Allocate the Bay cap load to basin-jurisdictions Determine which source loads go into each impaired segment Sub-allocate the basin-jurisdiction loads to sources in state implementation plans

19. Employ Consequences by EPA if appropriate progress is not being made Revise Implementation plans Identifying the nutrient and sediment controls needed to meet the Basin caps Monitor Effectiveness to assess implementation actions • Establish • Chesapeake • Bay TMDL: • Set total nutrient and sediment caps • Wasteload and load allocations Set Biennial Milestones for closing identified program gaps Contingencies by States if milestones fall short Evaluate Program capacity (programmatic, funding, technical) to fully implement tributary strategies Identify Program Gaps between needed controls and existing program capacity A TMDL is not enough!

20. Consequences/ Contingencies

21. How does it all fit?

22. Bay Cap Load VA Eastern Shore Susquehanna Rappa- hannock James Patuxent York MD-DE Eastern Shore West Shore Ches. Potomac PA WV VA DC MD Basin-jurisdiction allocations/ State Implementation Plans 2009-2011 2009-2011 2009-2011 2009-2011 2009-2011 2011-2013 2011-2013 2011-2013 2011-2013 2011-2013 2013-2015 2013-2015 2 year commitments 2013-2015 2013-2015 2013-2015 2015-2017 2015-2017 2015-2017 2015-2017 2015-2017 2019-2011 2019-2011 2019-2011 2019-2011 2019-2011

23. What we know? • We need a bigger, better toolbox to reduce nutrients and sediments • The tributary strategies level of effort is not enough to restore the bay • The existing tributary strategies result in higher loadings than previously thought. -new hydrology -new BMP efficiencies

24. Sediment allocation process How much will it cost? What are the best enhancements to the existing nutrient and sediment control toolbox? Who pays? What we need to know…but don’t know yet

25. Building a bigger toolbox Sources: • Agriculture • Air • Developed and developing lands • Wastewater • Tools: • Public funding • Cap and trade • Tax incentives • Marketing program • Corporate Stewardship • Regulation • Other?

26. Reasonable Assurance and Implementation Guidance Staged Implementation Consequences if Milestones are not met Bay TMDL 101 public meetings Preliminary Draft Bay Cap and Basin-Jurisdiction Allocations Upcoming Deliverables from EPA

27. Bay TMDL Outreach • Bay TMDL 101 public meetings (Summer 2009) • Meetings with Stakeholders and Local Governments (ongoing) • “A River Runs To It” (Summer 2009) • Visits throughout watershed to highlight best practices and present funds for projects • EPA Bay TMDL Website (coming soon)

28. What’s on the road ahead? • State Implementation Plan Development (May 2009 – May 2010) • TMDL 101 public meetings (June – Sept. 2009) • Preliminary Draft Bay Cap & Basin-Jurisdiction Allocations (July/Aug. 2009) • Draft TMDL Public Notice/Public Meetings (June – Sept. 2010) • Final TMDL Established (December 2010) • Consent Decree deadline (May 1, 2011)

29. Coming Attractions • Preliminary Draft Chesapeake Bay Cap • Preliminary Draft Basin-Jurisdiction Allocations • Two-year Milestones • Commitment Challenge Dates • Independent Evaluate • Public Messages • Communication Challenges Chesapeake Bay TMDL Coming Soon to a Watershed Near You 'Crazy Eyes' Koroncai & 'Rocco the Regulator' Batiuk

30. Executive Council MeetingMay 12, 2009 • Announce 2-year milestones • Set Restoration End Date • Executive Order

31. Milestones Guidelines • Will focus strictly on Bay water quality restoration goal • Jurisdiction-specific milestone outcomes can be rolled up into a single, basin-wide summary • Milestone outcomes include: pounds reduced, acres implemented, adoption of new regulations, legislation, policies • Account for implementation actions of all partners

32. Milestone Attributes • First 2-year milestones will be from mid-2009 through end of 2011 • Confirming we intend to develop milestones which are ‘stretch goals but still attainable’ • Accelerates past rates of implementation • Milestones could include commitments to seek new regulations, enactment of new legislation/policies • Translate or relate actions and resources to Bay water quality endpoints • Measurable, trackable, reportable and related to the end goal (cap load allocations) • Consistency across the 7 jurisdictions

35. Watershed-wide 2011 Milestones • Nitrogen • Additional 6.9 million pounds nitrogen reduced • 77% increase over previous rate of reduction • Phosphorus • Additional 463,948 pounds phosphorus reduced • 79% increase over previous rate of reduction

36. A New Restoration End Date “The date by which all the actions required to achieve the jurisdiction-specific and basinwide cap load allocations have been fully implemented on the ground” “No Later Than” 2025

37. Executive Order Signed May 12, 2009 • Chesapeake Bay declared a national treasure • Directed Federal Agencies to make restoration a greater priority with the following key provisions: • Establishing a Bay Federal Leadership Committee • Directing EPA to use its CWA authorities to the maximum extent possible • Improving agricultural conservation practices and focusing financial support • Reducing water pollution from federal lands and facilities • Developing an interagency Chesapeake Bay Climate Change Strategy • Expanding public access to the Bay via Fed. property • Strengthening scientific support for decision-making

38. Funding • American Recovery and Reinvestment Act • Provides hundreds of millions of dollars for projects that advance the cleanup of the Chesapeake Bay • Projects range from WWTP upgrades to green infrastructure projects • Farm Bill • Additional $188 million over next four years for agricultural conservation projects to reduce pollution flowing into the Bay • Support nutrient management, cover crops, crop residue management, vegetative buffers, and other agricultural conservation practices

39. Accountability • Two-year Milestones and Contingencies • Chesapeake TMDL and Consequences • Independent Evaluator • Bay Barometer • Adaptive Management • Monitor progress and adjust course if necessary

40. Further Information • Chesapeake Bay Program Water Quality Steering Committee website http://www.chesapeakebay.net/committee_wqsc_info.aspx?menuitem=16618 • EPA Region 3 Contacts • Water Protection Division • Bob Koroncai (koroncai.robert@epa.gov) • Jennifer Sincock (sincock.jennifer@epa.gov) • Chesapeake Bay Program • Rich Batiuk (batiuk.richard@epa.gov)

42. EPA’s Draft Bay TMDL Framework • States’ existing Chesapeake Bay WQS should not be relaxed based on feasibility • Bay TMDLs must contain the LAs and WLAs necessary to achieve the states’ existing Chesapeake Bay WQS • State Implementation Plans will be written to achieve the loadings assigned in the Bay TMDLs • Staged implementation is a possible option • Wastewater discharge load requirements will continue to be set at the discretion of states • An affordability assessment will be completed