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Evaluation of Surveillance Systems . St Lukes -Roosevelt. Problems with our field. Programs often do more harm than good Programs don’t collect data, so no benefit shown The data we do collect is often not useful for improving program quality or guiding policy.
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Evaluation of Surveillance Systems St Lukes-Roosevelt
Problems with our field • Programs often do more harm than good • Programs don’t collect data, so no benefit shown • The data we do collect is often not useful for improving program quality or guiding policy
How do we show benefit, impact, change? • Surveillance • Ongoing • Surveys • One point in time
Definition • Public health surveillance is the ongoing, systematic collection, analysis, interpretation, and dissemination of data regarding a health-related event for use in public health action to reduce morbidity and mortality to improve health *CDC, Atlanta GA
Key concept Ongoing Action
Why evaluate a surveillance system? • Ensure that problems of public health importance are being monitored efficiently and effectively • Recommendations about the system should focus on improving quality, efficiency, and usefulness
What should be evaluated? • System attributes: determine priorities • Simplicity • Flexibility • Data quality • Acceptability • Sensitivity • Predictive value positive • Representativeness • Timeliness • Stability
What should be evaluated? • System attributes: determine priorities • Simplicity: combine a practical structure with ease of use • Flexibility • Data quality • Acceptability • Sensitivity • Predictive value positive • Representativeness • Timeliness • Stability
What should be evaluated? • System attributes: determine priorities • Simplicity • Flexibility: ability to adapt to changing information needs or operating conditions with minimal time, effort, cost • Data quality • Acceptability • Sensitivity • Predictive value positive • Representativeness • Timeliness • Stability
What should be evaluated? • System attributes: determine priorities • Simplicity • Flexibility • Data quality: completeness and validity • Acceptability • Sensitivity • Predictive value positive • Representativeness • Timeliness • Stability
What should be evaluated? • System attributes: determine priorities • Simplicity • Flexibility • Data quality • Acceptability: willingness of persons or organizations to participate • Sensitivity • Predictive value positive • Representativeness • Timeliness • Stability
What should be evaluated? • System attributes: determine priorities • Simplicity • Flexibility • Data quality • Acceptability • Sensitivity: ability to detect cases OR ability to detect outbreaks • Predictive value positive • Representativeness • Timeliness • Stability
Incidence* of Shigella Dysentery Central Bosnia, 1991-1993 Region Prewar May-July 1993 Sarajevo City 0.3 4.0 (+1250%) Zenica City 0.3 4.4 (+1690%) Tuzla Region 0.5 0.4 (-10%) *Cases per 100,000 per month
What should be evaluated? • System attributes: determine priorities • Simplicity • Flexibility • Data quality • Acceptability • Sensitivity • Predictive value positive: proportion of persons identified as cases who truly are cases • Representativeness • Timeliness • Stability
What should be evaluated? • System attributes: determine priorities • Simplicity • Flexibility • Data quality • Acceptability • Sensitivity • Predictive value positive • Representativeness: system accurately describes events over time and space (time, person, place) • Timeliness • Stability
What should be evaluated? • System attributes: determine priorities • Simplicity • Flexibility • Data quality • Acceptability • Sensitivity • Predictive value positive • Representativeness • Timeliness: speed between steps; appropriateness in delays • Stability
What should be evaluated? • System attributes: determine priorities • Simplicity • Flexibility • Data quality • Acceptability • Sensitivity • Predictive value positive • Representativeness • Timeliness • Stability: reliability and availability; resources
Steps in evaluating a surveillance system • Stakeholder engagement • Describe the system: importance, purpose, resources • Focus the evaluation design • **Gather evidence regarding performance • Justify and state conclusions, make recommendations
Malaria Surveillance • Purpose (CDC): (a) identify local transmission; (b) guide prevention recommendations for travelers • Additional benefits (JE) • Identify emerging species; treatment failures; local outbreaks • Historically • Tracking elimination • Case definition • Malaria cases confirmed by blood film, rapid diagnostic tests, PCR
Malaria Surveillance • The system • **National Malaria Surveillance System • National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (1878 cholera, smallpox, plague, yellow fever at overseas consules) • Direct CDC consultation