Resilience* *Living with the possibility of Black Swans

1. Resilience**Living with the possibility of Black Swans

2. Attributes of resilient people:Inner calm (Buddhist?) High self-knowledge (“comfortable in own skin”)Breadth of experience—drove a cab, worked construction, ran Alaska tours … as well as more traditional stuffSense of, “Ah, my moment” (Giuliani)Lover of modestly controlled chaos (bored amidst calm—FDR)Reach out effortlesslyReach out effortlessly to a wide variety of peopleBizarrely energeticKnown for integrity, in the sense of “straight shooter”Hires resilient people per se in key positions! (All senior leadership roles?)Maintains sense of humorEmpathy (“I feel your pain”)“Cruelty” (Must make tough decisions instantaneously, without looking back; not “confident,” but overwhelming sense of urgency to press ahead)Decisive, but not rigidStrong individual, equally strong team playerKnows herself, himselfUnderstands the chain of command—and evades it as necessaryComfortable being challenged by thinkers, but a strong “doer” bias overallA person of Hope (religious or “religious-like”?)Not necessarily: ex-college QB, comeback rep (Why: All within the rules, within the context of that which has been practiced)Better: Ocean sailboat racer; ER doc; public health doc; astronaut; combat experience as NCO; hostage negotiator; survived in hopeless circumstances through guile and grit; seeks “independent duty”Tests: lights go out during interview, followed by fire alarm, etc; focus on resilience per se in reference checks

3. Attributes of resilient organizations:Hire resilient folks at all levels and in all functions—explicit about so doingPromote resilience—explicit about so doingDecentralization!!!!!!!!! (organization structure, physical configuration, systems)Shadow “emergency organization”Redundancy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Culture of (1) self-starting, (2) caring and respect, (3) Execution is Priority #1, (4) Accountability-responsibility—100% of folksCulture of Resilience (as explicit “plank” of values set)Talk it up!! MBWA—e.g., great communication all the time about everythingTransparency (all in the know, none in the dark)Financial paddingExcellent equipmentTraining >>>>> EquipmentAbility to get by for quite a while without IS-IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Test in uncomfortable situationsPromote an unusually high share of mavericksDiversity per se!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

4. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Nassim Nicholas Taleb

5. 1982 (-) = 200 Years (+)

6. 1982/Default Latin America = 200 years[Total historical earnings] The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb

7. TP:This book will(should!)change your life.

8. Siegfried and Roy = 1,000X [gambling variability] The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb

9. 10/50/50* *10 days in 50 years = 50% returns The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb

10. Forget:Normal Distributions, Means + Medians + Modes + Standard Deviation

11. Banking: 3 = R.O.H.: 1982/Default Latin America = Total historical earnings; 1992/S & L; 2002/dot.comLas Vegas: Siegfried and Roy, plus a handful of others = 1,000Xgambling variabilityWall Street: “In the last 50 years, the 10 most extreme days in the financial markets represent half of the returns. Ten days in 50 years. Meanwhile, we are mired in chitchat.” The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb