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SemiWEEK: Dark Forecasts and Reality as EUV lights up 2020; Stocks rebound

Order activity slipped in the midst of a quiet week. Order activity for semiconductor equipment fell nearly two points as many took the week off to celebrate the Chinese New Year. IC Inventory Levels. Semi Market results from last week: Semiconductor Supply-Demand Shortages ended.

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SemiWEEK: Dark Forecasts and Reality as EUV lights up 2020; Stocks rebound

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  1. Semiconductor WEEK: February 7, 2020 An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI Chip Market Research Services Order activity slipped in the midst of a quiet week • Order activity for semiconductor equipment fell nearly two points as many took the week off to celebrate the Chinese New Year • IC Inventory Levels Semiconductor Analytics Semi Market results from last week: Semiconductor Supply-Demand Shortages ended Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: 1Q20/1Q19 Improved to +3% – Semiconductor Weather1Report: Cooled to Sunny – IC Supply-Demand2Metrics: Dropped back to Tight – Electronics Price Trend: In-Flux Overall Semi Sales Status Trend: Peaked: Mar 18 Cold with Dark Clouds: Sep 18 Freezing: Nov 18 Frozen: Jan 19 Freezing: Mar 19 Cold: May 19 Cool: July 19 Temperate: Oct 19 Sunny: Nov 19 Warm: Dec 19 Chip History Center The dawn of automated inspection: KLA ADD/100 Series. The tool that sparked the yield management revolution: The KLA 2020 The Chip Insider Strategy and Tactics: Dark Forecasts and Reality as EUV lights up 2020 Semiconductor Stocks • VLSI’s Semiconductor Stock Indices rebounded this week • Semiconductor Stock Index led up by SMIC • Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index was led up by Veeco Instruments • EDA Stock Index was led up by Synopsys • Electronics Materials Stock Index was led up by Cabot Microelectronics • Hottest Stocks: SMIC, Panasonic, Infineon, Veeco Instruments, UMC, and Cabot Microelectronics VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  2. The Chip Insider®'s Graphics File January 2020 Order activity slipped in the midst of a quiet week • Order activity for semiconductor equipment fell nearly two points as many took the week off to celebrate the Chinese New Year • The impact will likely be minimal in Q1, which is seasonally a slow quarter for the industry • The Chip Price Performance Index (CPPI) moved higher 2019 75.7 $ -9.5% 84.5% 352.2 $ -13.4% 299.4 -6.0% 2,122 $ -2.0% 2020 79.2 $ 4.7% 87.8% 384.5 $ 9.2% 322.9 7.8% 2,255 $ 6.3% Forecast as of January 2020: Semi Equipment ($B): Sequential Change Capacity Utilization: ICs ($B): Sequential Change IC Units (BU): Sequential Change Electronics ($B) : Sequential Change This issue contains the latest forecast. Call us to access more details VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  3. The Chip Insider®Graphics IC Inventories are rolling over IC Inventory Levels: chart gives rolling averages for semiconductor integrated circuit inventories held at OEMs, in Die Banks, and the total Inventory-to-Billing Ratio VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  4. Semiconductor Analytics Last Week in the Semiconductor Market: Semiconductor Supply-Demand Shortages ended as uncertainly about the Lunar NY & the Coronavirus quashed demand. Comparing the Coronavirus to other external events shows it differs significantly in W/W market direction… W/W: Week-over-Week sequential growth W/Q: Week-over-Quarter W/Y: Week-over-Year Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: 1Q20/1Q19 Improved to +3% Semiconductor Weather1Report: Cooled to Sunny IC Supply-Demand2Metrics: Dropped back to Tight Electronics Pricing Trend: In-Flux Thank you for supporting us through this last issue of 2018. Semiconductor Analytics will return January . Overall Semi Sales Status Trend: Peaked: Mar 18 Cold with Dark Clouds: Sep 18 Freezing: Nov 18 Frozen: Jan 19 Freezing: Mar 19 Cold: May 19 Cool: July 19 Temperate: Oct 19 Sunny: Nov 19 Warm: Dec 19 1: Measures Order Activity 2: Measures Pricing Power VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  5. Semiconductor Market: Aggregate Comps • Integrated Circuit sales growing off of an upward 2019 channel • Certainties: – China – 5G: Smartphone, Auto, Industrial – Win 7 EoL refresh – 7/10nm and 5/7nm demand ramps – Memory Price Elasticity • Uncertainties: – Coronavirus Pandemic – China Slowdown – Federal Reserve pulling punchbowl from party in January – 2020 Elections in U.S. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  6. The Chip Insider® Strategy & Tactics Strategy and Tactics: Dark Forecasts and Reality as EUV lights up 2020. Summaries: SEMI ISS opened with an optimistic semiconductor equipment and materials crowd and bright visions of a new “Roaring 20s" decade. Ajit Manocha reiterated his belief that the semiconductor industry will pass $1T by 2030. Still it was Half Moon Bay, where there is plenty of cold water to be had should anyone want to throw cold water on the crowd. The first day opened with 3 dark visions of what 2020 will bring. However, none of the equipment or semiconductor executives … agreed. It is impossible to say whose views will turn out right here. But in my experience, whenever there’s been a surprise turn — with a short- term out-of-sample outcome — it’s been the industry execs who have always been closest to right. We discuss why this is the case. ChipChirps™ Expanded: TSMC's strategy focus to use the success of its N7 and N7+ processes to grow its TAM and comments by Mark Jagiela of Teradyne on the semiconductor test equipment market and the role 5G is playing. — ChipChirps are short notifications on VLSI’s app to alert you about breaking news and events. Maxims Reloaded: To be truly innovative, it must be stupid — Here are some of my favorite stupid innovations that went on to takeover entire markets: ASML’s Twinscan: Two stages for a scanner? Insane! It will be too big, too costly, and too wasteful. But Martin van den Brink was trying to figure out how to get to the next generation of wafer size (300mm) without … For one thing, the move of EUV from R&D to volume manufacturing is an out-of-sample event that is going to change everything… It’s already given new life to … EUV is a technology supply-side driver. It is a technological tour-de-force that, combined with the developments in etch and deposition in 2017 and 2018, is having ripple effects that go all the way out of the wafer fab and extend into design, test, assembly and beyond up and down the stack. The Chip History Center: - Lithography Panel 2007: Bill Arnold, ASML Immersion versus EUV and the 10thAnniversary of the ASML’s Twinscan conception. “Intelligence is quickness in seeing things as they are” — George Santayana Contact us to get the full report and more VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  7. semiStockWEEK: VLSI's Semiconductor Stock Indices rebounded this week along with the market. Semiconductors 4%, Equipment 3%, EDA 3%, Electronic Materials 5%. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  8. Semiconductor Stocks: Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company Weekly Gains 2/7/2020 Price Change Price Change VLSI’s Semiconductor Stock Index was led up 4.2% by SMIC followed by Panasonic, Infineon, and UMC. IDM 2.9% Foundry & OSAT 5.6% Fabless & Fablite 3.8% Forward P/E Forward P/E Semiconductor Stocks Semiconductor Stocks IDM Intel Micron ON Semiconductor Samsung Electronics SK hynix STMicroelectronics Western Digital Fab-lite to Fabless AMD Analog Devices Broadcom IBM Infineon MagnaChip Semiconductor Maxim 3.3% 7.1% -11.7% 7.1% 6.2% 6.3% 2.3% 13 10 11 32 20 12 11 21 20 23 5.8% 2.3% 3.3% 6.8% 11.3% 5.1% 4.0% – AMD AMDAnalog Devices ADIAmkorAMKR ASE ASXBroadcom AVGOIBMIBM Infineon IFNNY.PK Intel INTCJCET600584.SS Kingpak Technology6238.TWO Micron Technology MU On Semiconductor ONPanasonic PC MagnaChip Semiconductor MXMaxim MXIM MaxLinear MXLMediaTek 2454.TW NVIDIA NVDAQualcomm QCOM Samsung Electronics 005930.KS Silicon Laboratories SLABSkyworks SWKS SMIC SMI STMicroelectronics STM Texas Instruments TXNTSMC TSMUMC UMCWestern Digital WDCXilinx XLNX 17 9 Foundry & OSAT MaxLinear -7.2% 19 Amkor -1.5% 16 MediaTek -1.8% – ASE 13 NVIDIA 35 4.4% 6.4% JCET Kingpak Technology 1.0% -1.2% 83 Panasonic Qualcomm 14 14 12.5% 2.5% – SMIC TSMC UMC 1736 17 13 Silicon Laboratories Skyworks Texas Instruments Xilinx 1.7% 0.7% 6.7% 1.3% 25 15 22 25 21.4% 4.2% 10.7% VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  9. Chip Equipment & Related Stocks: Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company VLSI’s Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index was led up 2.9% by Veeco Instruments. WFE 3.6% Test 0.7% Assembly 2.4% Weekly Gains 0 2/7/2020 Price Change Price Change Forward P/E Forward P/E Equipment Stocks Equipment Stocks Wafer Process: Applied Materials ASM International ASML KLA Lam Research Test: Advantest Teradyne FormFactor 14 20 27 15 16 -3.7% 5.2% 0.7% 6.4% -0.4% 8.7% -0.4% 5.8% – 19 20 Applied Materials AMAT Advantest ATEYY ASM International ASMI ASM Lithography ASML ASM Pacific 0522.HK BE Semiconductor BESIY.PK FormFactorFORMKLA KLAC Kulicke & Soffa KLIC Lam Research LRCX Onto Innovation ONTONikon 7731 Teradyne TER Tokyo Electron Limited 8035 Veeco VECO Assembly: Onto Innovation 1.5% BESI 2.1% – – Nikon TEL -0.1% -0.6% Kulicke & Soffa ASM Pacific Technology 0.7% 4.4% 12 – – Veeco Instruments 20 11.2% VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  10. Electronic Materials Stocks: Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company VLSI’s EDA Stock Index was led up 3.3% by Synopsys. Weekly Gains EDA & Electronic Materials Stocks EDA Cadence Synopsys Electronic Materials BASF Cabot Microelectronics 2/7/2020 Price Change Price Change 1.0% 2.6% 8.9% 7.3% 4.0% 2.2% EDA & Electronic Materials Stocks DNP DuPont JSR Shin-Etsu SOITEC Tokyo Ohka Forward P/E Forward P/E VLSI’s Electronics Materials Stock Index was led up 4.6% by Cabot Microelectronics. – 4 2.0% 4.6% 31 26 – BASF BASFY Cadence CNDS DNP 7912 JSR 4185 SOI.PA Synopsys SNPS Cabot Microelectronics CCMP DuPont DD Shin-Etsu 4063 SOITEC Tokyo Ohka 4186 – 0.5% 10.6% 3 20 – – VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  11. Companies Companies Max Growth Weekly Growth VLSI’s Indices of Chip Industry Stocks Min Growth Range of S&P 500 S&P 500 The Prior Week's Close Growth Growth Down Up Semi Stocks Equipment Stocks Materials Stocks EDA Stocks Semi Stocks Equipment Stocks Materials Stocks EDA Stocks 05-Jul-19 12-Jul-19 19-Jul-19 26-Jul-19 02-Aug-19 09-Aug-19 16-Aug-19 23-Aug-19 30-Aug-19 06-Sep-19 13-Sep-19 20-Sep-19 27-Sep-19 04-Oct-19 11-Oct-19 18-Oct-19 25-Oct-19 01-Nov-19 08-Nov-19 15-Nov-19 22-Nov-19 29-Nov-19 06-Dec-19 13-Dec-19 20-Dec-19 27-Dec-19 03-Jan-20 10-Jan-20 17-Jan-20 24-Jan-20 31-Jan-20 07-Feb-20 80.8 83.1 83.5 86.1 81.3 79.6 79.7 78.6 81.2 84.7 87.6 85.4 83.6 84.6 86.0 86.2 88.2 90.3 91.7 92.0 90.0 90.9 92.6 96.7 99.2 100.0 100.3 101.5 104.7 106.1 98.4 102.5 72.5 72.4 74.6 81.5 77.7 74.9 75.2 74.7 75.8 79.3 83.4 84.5 83.6 84.4 86.4 86.7 92.4 92.6 94.9 97.0 92.0 93.7 94.7 98.0 99.9 100.0 100.2 100.9 104.8 105.1 98.4 101.3 86.7 85.8 85.9 88.9 86.5 86.0 85.0 85.7 87.7 91.2 95.8 94.5 93.8 93.1 95.0 97.5 100.0 101.2 103.2 101.5 98.7 96.7 95.5 100.0 100.1 100.0 98.9 99.2 101.0 100.5 96.0 100.4 100.6 101.7 99.4 102.2 96.3 96.2 94.9 95.4 99.0 101.4 94.3 95.0 94.7 96.0 96.0 94.5 94.9 94.8 96.1 97.6 95.9 100.1 95.5 96.9 99.6 100.0 100.5 104.7 106.4 107.8 103.8 107.2 0.9% 2.8% 0.5% 3.1% -5.5% -2.1% 0.1% -1.3% 3.2% 4.3% 3.5% -2.6% -2.1% 1.1% 1.7% 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 1.5% 0.4% -2.2% 1.0% 1.8% 4.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3% 1.2% 3.2% 1.3% -7.3% 4.2% 1.6% -0.2% 3.2% 9.1% -4.6% -3.6% 0.5% -0.8% 1.5% 4.6% 5.2% 1.3% -1.1% 1.1% 2.3% 0.3% 6.6% 0.2% 2.5% 2.1% -5.1% 1.8% 1.1% 3.5% 1.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 3.9% 0.3% -6.3% 2.9% -0.4% -1.1% 0.2% 3.4% -2.7% -0.5% -1.2% 0.8% 2.4% 4.0% 5.0% -1.3% -0.7% -0.8% 2.0% 2.7% 2.5% 1.3% 1.9% -1.6% -2.8% -2.0% -1.2% 4.7% 0.1% -0.1% -1.1% 0.2% 1.8% -0.5% -4.5% 4.6% 34 30 35 47 6 13 25 19 45 53 45 19 16 34 35 28 46 36 37 31 7 37 33 48 39 29 23 32 45 29 3 45 11.0% 14.0% 10.5% 28.2% 8.3% 16.1% 8.7% 6.6% 7.3% 10.2% 17.1% 5.7% 3.7% 10.1% 9.0% 11.2% 15.6% 9.9% 12.5% 10.8% 5.7% 5.0% 8.2% 10.7% 12.5% 5.9% 9.5% 7.2% 19.1% 14.9% 2.2% 21.4% -15 -21 -18 -7 -47 -39 -28 -35 -9 -1 -8 -35 -37 -20 -15 -23 -7 -15 -14 -20 -44 -14 -19 -3 -13 -23 -24 -22 -10 -25 -51 -10 -4.1% -3.9% -6.9% -6.4% -13.5% -14.5% -8.8% -9.5% -6.6% -2.8% -7.5% -8.3% -12.1% -3.5% -4.4% -6.0% -16.3% -12.1% -4.2% -5.0% -17.7% -15.0% -4.8% -1.4% -8.4% 2.7% -3.4% -4.8% -3.8% -10.8% -17.7% -11.7% 15.1% 17.9% 17.4% 34.6% 21.8% 30.6% 17.5% 16.1% 13.9% 13.0% 24.6% 14.0% 15.8% 13.6% 13.4% 17.2% 31.9% 22.0% 16.7% 15.8% 23.4% 20.0% 13.0% 12.1% 20.9% 8.6% 12.9% 12.0% 22.9% 25.7% 19.9% 33.1% 92.3 93.0 91.9 93.4 90.5 90.1 89.2 87.9 90.3 91.9 92.8 92.3 91.4 91.1 91.7 92.2 93.3 94.7 95.5 96.3 96.0 96.9 97.1 97.8 99.4 100.0 99.8 100.8 102.8 101.7 99.5 102.7 1.7% 0.8% -1.2% 1.7% -3.1% -0.5% -1.0% -1.4% 2.8% 1.8% 1.0% -0.5% -1.0% -0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 1.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% -0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% -0.2% 0.9% 2.0% -1.0% -2.1% 3.2% 5.1% 1.2% -2.3% 2.9% -5.9% -0.1% -1.4% 0.6% 3.8% 2.5% -7.0% 0.8% -0.4% 1.4% 0.0% -1.5% 0.4% -0.1% 1.3% 1.6% -1.8% 4.4% -4.6% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 0.5% 4.2% 1.7% 1.3% -3.8% 3.3% VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

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