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“R = AC + EId + (E + C).PaC + ExS” - a formula for retention?

“R = AC + EId + (E + C).PaC + ExS” - a formula for retention?. Ormond Simpson Visiting professor OPNZ. ‘ Retention in the UKOU’. OU student retention – the current picture The ‘Retention Formula’. UKOU in brief. 220,000 students 500 courses lasting between 6 to 12 months

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“R = AC + EId + (E + C).PaC + ExS” - a formula for retention?

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  1. “R = AC + EId + (E + C).PaC + ExS”- a formula for retention? Ormond Simpson Visiting professor OPNZ

  2. ‘Retention in the UKOU’ OU student retention – the current picture The ‘Retention Formula’

  3. UKOU in brief 220,000 students 500 courses lasting between 6 to 12 months Students take 6 - 12 courses for a degree Courses assessed by: continuous assessment + final exam - both have to be passed

  4. Student Retention in the Open University New student retention on their first course = 55% Overall retention to the degree = 35%

  5. ASSIGNMENT RIVERGRAM 100 students start the course. At each assignment some drop out and enter the ‘exit’ channel. A very few re-enter the ‘progress’ channel having skipped the previous assignment Assignment1 Assignment2 Assignment3 62 57 52 Progress 100 2 7 38 5 43 48 Exit Student flow – assignments

  6. Around 14 different exit routes in all Students re-entering by various routes Progress Students leaving by various routes Exit Exit Student flow – entire course

  7. Variations in course retention T302 T331 100 MU120 Sifters Fair K224 % passing exam 95 90 85 80 75 W300 70 65 Heavy goings Knock Backers 60 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % getting toexam

  8. Retention – long term trendsT100, T101. T102 and T172 historic exam and ‘get to exam’ pass rates 100 90 Pass rate 80 'Get' rate 70 60 Warren , Horan and Simpson (2005) 50 ECA ref T100 40 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

  9. Re-registration rates (%) of new students completing the previous year

  10. Cumulative graduation rates (%) by year of entry

  11. Retention - what doesn't work? Pushing all the buttons at once and hoping something works Assuming good practice spreads organically Restricting research into support issues Assuming work can be entirely faculty led Veronique Johnston (2002) The ‘retention goulash’ approach

  12. The ‘Retention Formula’ Retention = AC + EId + (E + C).PaC + ExS AC = Appropriate Course Choice, EId = Early Identification of vulnerable students (E + C) = (Early and Continuous) PaC = Proactive Contact ExS = External Support (the Simpson-Seidmann formula…?!)

  13. AC = Appropriate Course Taster Packs - samples of course materials and assignments Students’ and Tutors’ Comments - Comments on courses they’ve taken or taught Diagnostic quizzes

  14. The Taster Pack

  15. Taster Pack contents Course selection Sample assignment Student’s answer Tutor’s comments Specimen exam question

  16. Student course reviews 16 16

  17. Self-assessed diagnostic quizzes • Course specific quizzes - maths, languages etc • General quizzes- humanities social science business studies etc

  18. HOW GOOD ARE YOUR CHANCES OF PASSING?

  19. How did you score? • 100 or above:(70%+ chance of success) The outlook is very bright for you. You’ll undoubtedly have your share of challenges but you should be able to get things off to a good start. • 75 to 99:(50-60% chance of success) This will be a challenge you’ve taken on and it will be useful to see if you can increase your point score in some way. For example do think about changing to a lower level course just for the first year – you can step up the pace later on. If you are taking more than one course then again do think of switching to just one. • Under 75:(50% or lower chance of success) You’ll still be able succeed but if you can increase your score that would really improve your chances. You may not want to change sex (!) but you could change your course, increase your current educational qualifications by taking a short course of some kind – the ‘Openings’ courses are ideal – and so on.

  20. EId = Early Identification of vulnerable students ‘Binary regression analysis’ - calculates a ‘predicted probability of success’ for every student.

  21. EId = Early Identification - accuracy

  22. E(PaC) = Early Proactive Contact - taking initiative to contact individual students interactively as early as possible. ‘Student self-referral does not work as a mode of promoting persistence. Students who need services the most refer themselves the least. ‘Effective retention services take the initiative in outreach and timely interventions.’ (Anderson, US)

  23. Proactive Motivational Support in OU – results of pre-course contact 25

  24. (i) Institutional retention activity - costs An activity costing £P per student increases student retention by n% - then the ‘cost per student retained’ = £100P/n Eg UKOU an initial ‘proactive motivational contact’ to new students: - costs £10 (NZ$30) per student - increases retention by up to 4% - So cost per student retained is £100x10/4 = £250 (NZ$750) 26

  25. (ii) Institutional retention activity- benefits (OU example) Student fee income – neutral against costs HEFCE grant income in OU – about £1100 per student completing each year Savings on recruitment – recruitment cost per new student ~£500. ~£300 maybe to replace dropout = total benefit of about £1400 per student retained 27

  26. Return on investment in UKOU of a ‘proactive motivational contact’: Cost of activity = £250 per student retained Benefit of activity = £1400 per student retained So RoI ~ 1400/250 = 560% Net benefit ~ £1150 per student retained 35,000 new OU students each year 4% increase in retention = 1400 students retained So net benefit to institution ~ £1.6m pa 28

  27. C(PaC) =Continuous Proactive contact But how much? Too little = ineffective? Too much = too expensive?

  28. Number of Proactive contacts per course (Burt 2007) Proactive Contact - how much? – (1) Satisfaction scale % 30 30

  29. Proactive Contact - how much? – (2) - also Case and Elliot (US 1997): 2-5 proactive calls gave 15% increase in retention

  30. Retention = AC + EId + (E + C).PaC + ExSExS= External Support-OU survey of sources of support to students (Asbee and Simpson 2001) 32

  31. ExS = External Support ‘Black Box’ research (before dropout) importance of close, support networks (Temperton, 1998)

  32. ExS= External Support Student-student support 1 ‘Student mentoring’ (students who’ve completed a course mentoring students who are on that course) • increases retention by 35% over non-mentored group (Boyle 1998)

  33. ExS= External Support Student-student support 2 Computer conferencing - But not always popular?

  34. ExS= External Support Student-student support 3 ‘Study Dating’ (students on the same course helping each other) - ‘Find a Study Friend’

  35. 38 38

  36. Where do we go from here? What kind of proactive contactis most effective? What is biggest barrier to increasing retention? What might be a long term goal?

  37. ‘Future directions…. ‘International Centre for Distance Student Retention Studies’

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