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Session 18: Taken for a Ride: Ridership and Transit Forecasting

Session 18: Taken for a Ride: Ridership and Transit Forecasting. Calibration of the Regional Mode Choice Models for Los Angeles and Miami for New Starts Forecasting. 11th National Transportation Planning Applications Conference May 6-10, 2007, Daytona Beach, Florida. Introduction.

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Session 18: Taken for a Ride: Ridership and Transit Forecasting

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  1. Session 18: Taken for a Ride: Ridership and Transit Forecasting Calibration of the Regional Mode Choice Models for Los Angeles and Miami for New Starts Forecasting 11th National Transportation Planning Applications ConferenceMay 6-10, 2007, Daytona Beach, Florida

  2. Introduction • Experience in Los Angeles and Miami • Calibration Process • Lessons Learned from New Starts

  3. Calibration Process • Shift in how Mode Choice Models are Calibrated • Detailed Review of Inputs • Use of On-Board Transit Survey – A NECESSITY

  4. Los Angeles Model • Mode Choice Model

  5. Los Angeles Model • Study Area

  6. Los Angeles Model • Challenges Encountered/Resolved • Unrealistic Trip Patterns and Trip Lengths • Uncongested Highway Speeds • Metrolink Fares • Drive Egress

  7. Los Angeles Model • Validation Results

  8. Los Angeles Model • Challenges Encountered/Resolved • Unrealistic Trip Patterns and Trip Lengths • Uncongested Highway Speeds • Metrolink Fares • Drive Egress

  9. Los Angeles Model • Daily Boardings Summary

  10. Miami Model • Challenges Encountered/Resolved • Cross County Trips Not Represented • Nest Structure • Model Coefficients • College Trip Patterns Same as Other School Trips

  11. Miami Model • Study Area

  12. Miami Model • Updated Nest Structure

  13. Miami Model • Review of Model Coefficients

  14. Miami Model • Miami-Dade College Trip Patterns

  15. Miami Model • Validation Results

  16. Lessons Learned • Review Key Model Inputs • Person Trip Patterns • Los Angeles – Too few trips to downtown • Miami – College trips • Highway and Transit Travel Time • Los Angeles – Highway Speeds • Up to Date Surveys • Calibration Target Values • Observed Trip Patterns • Path Building Process Verification • Observed Trip Matrices

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