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Enhancing Transit Forecasting: Lessons from Mode Choice Calibration in Los Angeles and Miami

This session delves into the calibration process of regional mode choice models for Los Angeles and Miami, focusing on new starts forecasting. Discover the challenges encountered, such as unrealistic trip patterns and lengths, and how they were resolved. Gain insight into the calibration shift, detailed review of inputs, and the necessity of on-board transit surveys. Validation results and lessons learned from both models are discussed, highlighting key inputs like person trip patterns and highway speeds.

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Enhancing Transit Forecasting: Lessons from Mode Choice Calibration in Los Angeles and Miami

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  1. Session 18: Taken for a Ride: Ridership and Transit Forecasting Calibration of the Regional Mode Choice Models for Los Angeles and Miami for New Starts Forecasting 11th National Transportation Planning Applications ConferenceMay 6-10, 2007, Daytona Beach, Florida

  2. Introduction • Experience in Los Angeles and Miami • Calibration Process • Lessons Learned from New Starts

  3. Calibration Process • Shift in how Mode Choice Models are Calibrated • Detailed Review of Inputs • Use of On-Board Transit Survey – A NECESSITY

  4. Los Angeles Model • Mode Choice Model

  5. Los Angeles Model • Study Area

  6. Los Angeles Model • Challenges Encountered/Resolved • Unrealistic Trip Patterns and Trip Lengths • Uncongested Highway Speeds • Metrolink Fares • Drive Egress

  7. Los Angeles Model • Validation Results

  8. Los Angeles Model • Challenges Encountered/Resolved • Unrealistic Trip Patterns and Trip Lengths • Uncongested Highway Speeds • Metrolink Fares • Drive Egress

  9. Los Angeles Model • Daily Boardings Summary

  10. Miami Model • Challenges Encountered/Resolved • Cross County Trips Not Represented • Nest Structure • Model Coefficients • College Trip Patterns Same as Other School Trips

  11. Miami Model • Study Area

  12. Miami Model • Updated Nest Structure

  13. Miami Model • Review of Model Coefficients

  14. Miami Model • Miami-Dade College Trip Patterns

  15. Miami Model • Validation Results

  16. Lessons Learned • Review Key Model Inputs • Person Trip Patterns • Los Angeles – Too few trips to downtown • Miami – College trips • Highway and Transit Travel Time • Los Angeles – Highway Speeds • Up to Date Surveys • Calibration Target Values • Observed Trip Patterns • Path Building Process Verification • Observed Trip Matrices

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