1 / 18

The “Rise” of China – and its Coming “Fall”?

The “Rise” of China – and its Coming “Fall”?. On the Minds of China’s Leaders…. Significant leadership change in 2012. National security. Stability & control. Economic growth. Awareness of challenges/weaknesses. A “Jasmine Spring”?. On the minds of China’s leaders, cont’d.

aarontownsend
Download Presentation

The “Rise” of China – and its Coming “Fall”?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The “Rise” of China – and its Coming “Fall”?

  2. On the Minds of China’s Leaders… • Significant leadership change in 2012 • National security • Stability & control • Economic growth • Awareness of challenges/weaknesses

  3. A “Jasmine Spring”?

  4. On the minds of China’s leaders, cont’d. • Importance of a stable world • Conflicted world leadership • Pride & humiliation • No trend continues forever

  5. China’s achievements since 1976 • World’s 2nd largest economy

  6. China’s achievements since 1976, cont’d. • Trade has ballooned; now critical to economy • People’s livelihood has improved • Communist ideology is out • Enhanced involvement in worldwide organizations • Steady modernization of armed forces

  7. China’s achievements since 1976, cont’d. • Steady expansion • of space program • Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau

  8. “The Future Ain’t What It Used To Be!”

  9. China’s Many Challenges • Governance

  10. China’s Many Challenges • Civil Society • Economic • Corruption • Demography • Environmental degradation

  11. China’s many challenges, cont’d. • Social • Ethnic tensions • Government control • Legal • National security; • strategic policy

  12. “It’s tough making predictions, particularly about the future.”

  13. A proposition… China’s spectacular “rise” could become a “fall” for at least a period of time as challenges multiply and undermine governance, economic growth, social stability and political cohesion

  14. Possible developments • Political • Questions: • 1. Would the US and other foreign businesses begin to pull back on investment and operations in China? • 2. Would a weak Chinese government really be better for the US? • 3. Could we still say that what happens in China stays in China?

  15. Possible developments, cont’d. • Economic • Demographic • Environmental degradation and future threats • Ethnic tensions • Corruption • National security policy

  16. US Long-term Approach to China • Get our own house in order! • Recognize China long-term will be major player and seek broad and deep engagement on all levels • Maintain clear-sighted emphasis on US national interests – speak clearly, negotiate tenaciously • Maintain strong national security – seek broader engagement with Chinese military, discuss strategic goals, increase transparency and trust • Economic/trade – relentless pursuit of specific US goals • Don’t preach!

  17. What Do You Think?

More Related