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Transport Forecasts

Transport Forecasts. the process of estimating the number of vehicles or travellers that will use a specific transportation facility in the future. Why Forecast?. To ensure sufficient future funding To highlight potential black spots To formulate transport policy

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Transport Forecasts

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  1. Transport Forecasts the process of estimating the number of vehicles or travellers that will use a specific transportation facility in the future.

  2. Why Forecast? • To ensure sufficient future funding • To highlight potential black spots • To formulate transport policy • Estimate financial viability of transportation projects • Calculate environmental impact of transportation

  3. The Department for Transport plays a key role in forecasting UK transport demand: The Department: · Estimates current vehicle ownership, rail usage etc; · Identifies likely economic growth and its impact on disposable incomes; · Factors in income elasticity of demand (YED) estimates for each mode and then · Predicts future demand. http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/economics/ntm/roadtransportforcasts08/rtf08.pdf

  4. Forecasting transport is difficult Transport predictions are uncertain because: · Forecasts and based on assumptions about future growth, elasticity and consumer behaviour. · The sample used in market research may be unrepresentative and questionnaire answers prone to statistical error · Traffic forecast notoriously underestimate additional traffic generated by new roads. eg M25 did not anticipate local car journeys by local commuters

  5. http://www.bbc.co.uk/threecounties/travel/m25/m25_facts.shtmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/threecounties/travel/m25/m25_facts.shtml

  6. Methods for estimating transport elasticities · Use primary data: commission market research. E.g. Firms ask a representative sample of the population how they might respond to a change in price of this product or a substitute. · Use secondary data: analyse sales records. E.g. use past data when prices changed or a boom occurred to predict future behaviour

  7. · Delphi method: consult an expert to use their specialist knowledge to predict the impact of changes in price on sales, or assess the impact of a likely recession on demand.

  8. Problems With forecasts • They are only estimates • Relationships based on past trends and patterns of consumer behaviour may not always be accurate for predicting behaviour in the future • Consumer tastes change and markets go through life cycle phases. • Changes in transport policy

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