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Managerial Economics in a Global Economy

Managerial Economics in a Global Economy. Chapter 5 Demand Forecasting. Qualitative Forecasts. Survey Techniques Planned Plant and Equipment Spending Expected Sales and Inventory Changes Consumers’ Expenditure Plans Opinion Polls Business Executives Sales Force Consumer Intentions.

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Managerial Economics in a Global Economy

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  1. Managerial Economics in a Global Economy Chapter 5 Demand Forecasting

  2. Qualitative Forecasts • Survey Techniques • Planned Plant and Equipment Spending • Expected Sales and Inventory Changes • Consumers’ Expenditure Plans • Opinion Polls • Business Executives • Sales Force • Consumer Intentions

  3. Time-Series Analysis • Secular Trend • Long-Run Increase or Decrease in Data • Cyclical Fluctuations • Long-Run Cycles of Expansion and Contraction • Seasonal Variation • Regularly Occurring Fluctuations • Irregular or Random Influences

  4. Trend Projection • Linear Trend:St = S0 + b tb = Growth per time period • Constant Growth RateSt = S0 (1 + g)tg = Growth rate • Estimation of Growth Rate lnSt = lnS0 + t ln(1 + g)

  5. Actual Trend Forecast Ratio = SeasonalAdjustment Average of Ratios forEach Seasonal Period = Seasonal Variation Ratio to Trend Method AdjustedForecast TrendForecast SeasonalAdjustment =

  6. Seasonal Variation Ratio to Trend Method:Example Calculation for Quarter 1 Trend Forecast for 1996.1 = 11.90 + (0.394)(17) = 18.60 Seasonally Adjusted Forecast for 1996.1 = (18.60)(0.8869) = 16.50

  7. Moving Average Forecasts Forecast is the average of data from w periods prior to the forecast data point.

  8. Exponential SmoothingForecasts Forecast is the weighted average of of the forecast and the actual value from the prior period.

  9. Root Mean Square Error Measures the Accuracy of a Forecasting Method

  10. Barometric Methods • National Bureau of Economic Research • Department of Commerce • Leading Indicators • Lagging Indicators • Coincident Indicators • Composite Index • Diffusion Index

  11. Econometric Models Single Equation Model of the Demand For Cereal (Good X) QX = a0 + a1PX + a2Y + a3N + a4PS + a5PC + a6A + e QX = Quantity of X PX = Price of Good X Y = Consumer Income N = Size of Population PS = Price of Muffins PC = Price of Milk A = Advertising e = Random Error

  12. Econometric Models Multiple Equation Model of GNP Reduced Form Equation

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