Amundsen Sea Embayment: IPY Modeling Proposal

1. Amundsen Sea Embayment: IPY Modeling Proposal IPY, The Next Generation: A Community Ice Sheet Model for scientists and educators, with demonstration experiments in the Amundsen Sea Embayment region PI: Jesse V. Johnson, Co-Is Christina Hulbe, Joel Henry, Martin L. Barett, Slawek Tulaczyk, William H. Robertson, Dacian Deascu, Cheryl Seals 2006 WAIS Meeting

2. Proposal Objectives • Conduct high quality and novel modeling investigations on ASE • Develop an open, accessible, well validated, and flexible ice sheet modeling platform • Embrace the wider IPY goals of: • Education and outreach • International collaboration • Creating a lasting infrastructure 2006 WAIS Meeting

3. Science Justification • Case for studying ASE is strong • Given elsewhere in these talks? • Modeling provides • Means of understanding mechanisms responsible for observational data • Platform for exploring “what if” scenarios • Ultimate tool for extension of the spatial and temporal domains of the observational record • Specifics of the modeling experiments will be demonstrated to be cutting edge 2006 WAIS Meeting

4. Model Development Justification • Duplicated efforts • For instance, 11 models participated in EISMINT, thermomechanical coupling • Transparency • Will important findings withstand scrutiny of a community of professional skeptics? • Coupling with other Earth System models • Dissemination of results • Numerous modeling advances live and die in a single ice sheet model • Training of the next generation • Clearly written simulation platform key 2006 WAIS Meeting

5. Outreach Justification • IPY is not business as usual • Community needs better interaction with K-12 • The popularity of science is declining (only 15% of college majors) • Vital policy decisions of the future will require scientific insight • This is the next generation • Models can provide a unique setting for inquiry based learning • These things don’t ‘just happen’, proposals must address 2006 WAIS Meeting

6. Science Strategy:3 Themes • Multi-physics coupling • Regions of flow transition • Changing order of approximation • Multiple relevant Earth systems models (Ice, Sea, Atmosphere, others) • Model Nesting • Grid scales • Conservation Laws • Advanced treatment of basal processes • Basal water • Heat budget 2006 WAIS Meeting

7. Science Strategy:Numerical Experiments • Reproduction of surface velocity field in ASE • Via adjustments in sliding laws • Starting point for other experiments • Sensitivity of Ice Flux to Subglacial Water Floods • Specify the flooding events in a manner consistent with recent data • Century Scale Ice Stream Discharge Cycles • Time Series analysis of model output • Quantification of Basal Water Flux • Impact of Transitions Between Sheet and Stream Flow 2006 WAIS Meeting

8. Strategy:Model Development • Begin with well validated thermo-mechanically coupled, finite difference GLIMMER • Software engineers establish excellence in: • Maintainable • Extensibility • Documentation • Computational efficiency • User interface 2006 WAIS Meeting

9. Strategy: Outreach • Models are somewhat unique in terms of scientific output • Results have compelling spatial and dynamical components • Well developed software can allow non-experts to pose questions • Well prepared output tells a story in response to a question • Utilize expert on human computer interaction • Educational experts develop curriculum based on model 2006 WAIS Meeting

10. Strategy:Management • Quality metrics for software • Establish feedback between science, software and outreach goals • Net-centric development tools • International panel of external advisors • Review, and comment upon software • Facilitate end to end development strategy • Collaboration with other IPY modeling efforts • Belgium and UK • External advisory board hold door open for others 2006 WAIS Meeting

11. People:Science • PI: Jesse Johnson (U. Montana) • Overall management • Advanced basal processes • Co-I Christina Hulbe (Portland State) • Numerical experiments • Thematic Development • Co-I Slawek Tulaczyk (UC Santa Cruz, Bristol) • Numerical Experiments • European contact (on Sabbatical in Bristol) 2006 WAIS Meeting

12. People:Software • Co-I: Joel Henry (U. Montana) • Software engineering • Co-I Martin Barrett (Eastern Tennessee) • Software engineering • Co-I Dacian Deascu (Portland State) • Numerical methods • Co-I Cheryl Seals (Auburn) • Human Computer Interaction 2006 WAIS Meeting

13. People:Education and Outreach • Co-I William Robertson (UT El Paso) • Develop K12 inquiry based curriculum • Co-I Cheryl Seals (Auburn) • Develop multilayered user interface • Emphasis on K12 appropriate interface • Co-I Johnson (Montana) • Outreach through science fairs 2006 WAIS Meeting

14. People:External Advisory • Ralph Greve (Hokaido U., Japan, Ice Sheet Modeling) • Frank Pattyn (Vrije U., Belgium, Ice Sheet Modeling) • Tony Payne (CPOM, Bristol, Ice Sheet Modeling) • Roland Warren (ACE CRC, Australia, Ice sheet modeling) • Peter Huybers (MIT, Orbital Forcing) • Douglas MacAyeal (U. Chicago, ISM) • James Fastook (U. Maine, ISM) • David Holland (NYU, Ice Ocean interface) • William Lipscomb (Los Alamos NL, Model Coupling) • Robert Jacobs (Argone NL, Numerical Methods) 2006 WAIS Meeting

15. A Good Proposal? • A good idea, yes! • A good way to do it? • Interesting, interdisciplinary group • Strong outreach (from a certain point of view) • Many objectives needed (need good science, good outreach, good infrastructure) • Many people = many dollars • That’s not good! • Sorry, I did my best 2006 WAIS Meeting