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Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. Chair and Professor, Department of Management and Communications

World Future Society Washington, DC Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Lessons From Singapore and the Project on National Security Reform. Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. Chair and Professor, Department of Management and Communications Walsh College

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Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. Chair and Professor, Department of Management and Communications

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  1. World Future SocietyWashington, DCExecutive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesLessons From Singapore and the Project on National Security Reform Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. Chair and Professor, Department of Management and Communications Walsh College Troy, MI 17 January 2013

  2. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities National Security Strategy Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  3. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities Lessons From the Project on National Security Reform Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  4. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities More than twenty years ago… Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  5. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities The United States does not develop whole of government “Grand Strategies.” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  6. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities Private Sector Management Tools Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  7. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities “What mechanisms should the U.S. government develop?” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  8. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities “We are now concerned with the peace of the entire world and the peace can only be maintained by the strong.” - General George C. Marshall Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  9. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities A Systems Approach… Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  10. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities U.S. security is rooted in the successful integration of all elements of national power. Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  11. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities “What is the basis for re-thinking the national security system?” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  12. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities “What is and what is not national security?” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  13. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities “Threats” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  14. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities “Opportunities” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  15. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities Any situation, condition, or entity that has the potential to enhance or degrade the viability and vitality of the nation. Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  16. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities The National Security System would be responsible for and measured by: • The viability and vitality of the nation, Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  17. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities The National Security System would be responsible for and measured by: • The viability and vitality of the nation, • Peaceful and positive development throughout the countries of every region Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  18. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities The National Security System would be responsible for and measured by: • The viability and vitality of the nation, • Peaceful and positive development throughout the countries of every region • Cooperation and collaboration around the globe Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  19. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities A Learning Organization Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  20. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities Complex Adaptive System Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  21. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities Complex Adaptive System • Share information and collaborate horizontally Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  22. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities Complex Adaptive System • Share information and collaborate horizontally • Accommodate unanticipated needs and partnerships Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  23. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities Complex Adaptive System • Share information and collaborate horizontally • Accommodate unanticipated needs and partnerships • Ensure agility in the face of uncertainty Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  24. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities Complex Adaptive System • Share information and collaborate horizontally • Accommodate unanticipated needs and partnerships • Ensure agility in the face of uncertainty • Incorporate ad-hoc structures and processes, and Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  25. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities Complex Adaptive System • Share information and collaborate horizontally • Accommodate unanticipated needs and partnerships • Ensure agility in the face of uncertainty • Incorporate ad-hoc structures and processes, and • Maintain a long-term view Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  26. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities Complex System of Complex Systems Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  27. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities Environment of the 21st Century Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  28. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities • The world is a system Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  29. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities • The world is a system • The nation’s homelands are no longer protected by distance or time Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  30. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities • The world is a system • The nation’s homelands are no longer protected by distance or time • Globalization demands a holistic world view Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  31. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities “If you know the enemy and you know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained, you will suffer a defeat. But if you know neither yourself nor the enemy, you will succumb in every battle.” - Suz Tzu, The Art of War, ~400 B.C. Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  32. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities “Plans are worthless, but planning is everything” - President Dwight D. Eisenhower Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  33. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities National Security Characteristics Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  34. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities Center for Strategic Analysis and Assessment Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  35. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities Synthesize all of government solutions to complex system issues and problems, and sometimes “all of society.” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  36. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities Nine scenarios in three time frames: • 2020 • 2040 • 2060 Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  37. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities The 2020 scenarios include: • Red Death Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  38. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities The 2020 scenarios include: • Red Death • The People’s War Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  39. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities The 2020 scenarios include: • Red Death • The People’s War • A Grand Strategy Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  40. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities The 2040 scenarios include: • A New Economy Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  41. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities The 2040 scenarios include: • A New Economy • Army of One Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  42. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities The 2040 scenarios include: • A New Economy • Army of One • Who Holds the High Ground Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  43. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities The 2040 scenarios include: • A New Economy • Army of One • Who Holds the High Ground • A Brave New World Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  44. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities The 2060 scenarios include: • A Warm Reception Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  45. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities The 2060 scenarios include: • A Warm Reception • It’s a Small World Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  46. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities Possibility of a Singularity Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  47. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities Findings significantly improved system performance. Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  48. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities Studying Singapore Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  49. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities According to Peter Ho in Ethos, • “Challenge conformist thinking,” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

  50. Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New Capabilities According to Peter Ho in Ethos, • “Challenge conformist thinking,” • “Identify emergent risks,” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.

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