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Introduction

Introduction. Space Weather : Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, interplanetary medium, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health.

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Introduction

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  1. Introduction Space Weather: Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, interplanetary medium, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health 19 September 2005

  2. Solar/Heliospheric SW ScientificGoals for FY06-08 • Determine the magnetic and density structure of the corona and identify conditions responsible for the formation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (Gibson, Tomczyk, Fan, Low, Holzer, deToma, Burkepile) • Determine 3-D structure and propagation of CMEs and their relationship to other forms of solar activity (Gibson, Burkepile, Fan, Low, deToma, Holzer) • Identify geoeffective structures in the solar wind and determine their solar and solar wind sources (Burkepile, Hundhausen, Holzer) • Determine the role of MHD wave generation and dissipation over network and supergranular spatial scales in heating the corona and accelerating the solar wind (Holzer, Bogdan, Rast, Lites) 19 September 2005

  3. Magnetic and density structure of the corona • What’s new/unique: • CoMP coronal magnetic field observations, MK4, STEREO (2006) provides 2 new lines-of-sight • Collaborations with SAIC (Linker-Mikic), Smithsonian (van Ballegooijen) • Leveraged through NCAR initiative COMP observations of the azimuthal magnetic field on April 21, 2005 • How to make this work: • Combine CoMP with data from Mauna Loa, EIT, TRACE, and STEREO to determine relationship between magnetic field structure and plasma distribution and motion. • Use CoMP to test and validate coronal models [HAO: Fan, Gibson, Low,SCD: Flyer, St.Cyr, CU: Fornberg, SAIC, Smithsonian CfA] and integrate CoMP observations into model boundary conditions

  4. 3-D structure of CMEs • What’s new/unique: • CoMP, MK4 and STEREO observations • Models: NCAR funded HAO/SCD model (Flyer/Low); CME flux rope model (Fan) in spherical coordinates, Air Force funded collaboration with Michigan (Manchester) CME May 25, 2001, MK4 • How to make this work: • Combine 3 unique lines-of-sight from Mauna Loa and STEREO with forward models to determine 3-3-D density structure and location of CMEs • Determine magnetic structure before/after CMEs (CoMP) and CME 3-D density structure (STEREO, MK4) to test and validate CME models. Leverage ongoing collaborations. CME Flux Rope Model, Fan and Gibson, 2005

  5. Geoeffective structures in the solar wind and their solar sources • What’s new/unique: • STEREO, CoMP, and MLSO • Leverage existing collaborations with CISM (CU-Odstrcil), and Air Force (Michigan-Manchester) to model CME propagation in solar wind. At left: LASCO C2 image of Earth-directed CME of May 2, 1998. Below: Solar wind observations from ACE showing strong southward magnetic fields within the ICME at Earth on May 3, 1998. • How to make this work: • Utilize STEREO/Mauna Loa/LASCO observations to determine location and 3-D structure of CMEs and coronal holes for input to CME/solar wind models. • Identify geoeffective structures from in-situ data. Interpret solar wind signatures in terms of underlying physical processes. (New hire)

  6. Coronal Heating by MHD wave generation and dissipation • What’s new/unique: • DLSP, SPINOR, 2006: Solar-B • HAO is recognized leader in spectro-polarimetry • How to make this work: • Combine high resolution time-series observations of magnetic field in photosphere and chromosphere with Diffraction-Limited Spectro-Polarimeter (DLSP) STOKES vector images (V, U, I, Q) of photosphere MHD models to determine the role of small-scale, organized motions of the field in generating and dissipating MHD waves into the corona that ultimately heat the coronal plasma and accelerate the solar wind.

  7. AIM SW Scientific Goals for FY06-08 • Improve our understanding of the thermospheric and ionospheric response to various solar and geomagnetic forcings. (Burns, Emery, Lu, Maute, Richmond, Wang, Wu) • Determine the influence of solar wind and IMF on the magnetospheric energetics and electrodynamics. (Wiltberger, Rigler) • Determine the effects of solar radiative output on the upper atmosphere.

  8. Thermospheric and Ionospheric Storm Responses • How to make this work: • Characterize the thermospheric and ionospheric structures under both quiescent and disturbed conditions • Systematic validation and refinement of GCMs through comprehensive model/data comparison (new hire needed: a software engi/assoc. sci) • Quantify small-scale variability in electric field and conductivity and paramterizing it for incorporation in GCMs • Improve data assimilation capability, including further refinement of AMIE and development of new data assimilation algorithms for TEC/COSMIC (new hire: postdoc) • What’s new/unique: • A hierarchy of in-house models (AMIE, TIE-GCM, TIME-GCM, TING, CMIT) and extensive expertise in ionospheric/themospheric physics • Close collaboration with CISM • Leveraged effort through NASA LWS and Sun-Earth connection programs

  9. Solar wind-magnetosphere-plasmasphere interaction • How to make this work: • Further improvement of the LFM model to facilitate a better coupling with the inner magnetospheric models • Development of a coupled plasmasphere and ionosphere model to provide a self-consistent description of dynamic and electrodynamic processes in the inner magnetosphere and the magnetically connected ionosphere • What’s new/unique: • Significant experience with the LMF-MHD model and its coupling with radiation belt simulations • Close collaboration with CISM, and collaboration through visiting scientists

  10. Effects of solar EUV irradiance on the upper atmosphere • How to make this work: • Continue to work with external and internal solar irradiance observational programs, including TIMED/SEE, SORCE, SDO/EVE, and PSPT, to specify the energy inputs to the upper atmosphere and their variation, and to understand the sources of • Develop algorithms for radiative transfer calculations of UV and X-ray fluxes and parameterizations suitable for incorporation into GCMs • What’s new/unique: • Unique expertise in modeling and analysis of both the origins of solar irradiance and its dynamical and chemical effects on the upper atmosphere • High relevance to the NCAR’s WACCM and Paleoclimatology programs

  11. Joint Solar-AIM SW Research:End-to-end Sun-Earth System Space Weather Studies • Fully coupled-systems approach to space-weather event studies: Selecting a few space weather campaigns to determine the origin of the solar disturbances, their propagation through the interplanetary media, and the consequent terrestrial impact – critical requirement: new hire of heliospheric scientist to HAO staff • Sensitivity studies: To determine the temporal and spatial scales of the solar and interplanetary structures that can affect the magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere system

  12. Community Involvement and Participation • CISM (Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling) • - Multi-wavelength determination of coronal holes (deToma, Gibson, Holzer) • - Coronal and magnetospheric-ionospheric model validation (Burkepile, deToma, Gibson, Burns, Solomon, Wang, Wiltberger) • SHINE (Solar, Heliospheric and Interplanetary Environme • - Serving on the science steering committee (Burkepile, Holzer) • CEDAR(Coupling, Energetics, and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions) and GEM(Geospace Environment Modeling) • - Hosting the annual CEDAR workshop (Emery), and serving as members of science steering committee (Hagan, Lu, Richmond) • - Providing model (AMIE, TIE-GCM, TIME-GCM, TING, FLM) and data analysis support to numerous CEADR and GEM campaign studies (Burns, Emery, Lu, Maute, Richmond, Wang, Wiltberger)

  13. Community Involvement and Participation • IHY (International Heliophysical Year) and CAWSES (Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System) • - Participated in the planning of IHY which will coordinate observational and modeling campaigns to study space weather phenomena (Burkepile, Gibson, Holzer, Fox, Hagan) • - Serving as active members of the CAWSES program (Richmond – Steering committee; Lu – WG co-leader; Hagan – WG member) • MLSO • - Providing ~2 Terabites of solar data for space-weather related studies by 200-250 scientists from ~87 institutions (Burkepile, Darnell, Gibert, Holzer, Rast) • VSO and VSTO • - Providing community access of model results and observations through the development of state-of-the-art cyber infrastructure (Fox, Darnell, Garcia, West)

  14. Community Involvement and Participation • CEDAR Database • - Providing long-term data archive and distribution for 52 ground instruments, 1 satellite (TIMED), 3 model outputs (AMIE, TIEGCM, GSWM), 10 geophysical indices, and serving ~350 active users (and ~500 Registered user) from over 100 institutions (Emery)

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