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Warren E Buffet, 1995

Warren E Buffet, 1995. Acquisition of GEICO Corporation. Agustus 2005, Warren Buffet, CEO dari Berkshire Hathaway mengumumkan akan mengakuisisi 49,6% dari GEICO. Saham yang beredar akan dibeli dengan harga premium sebesar $70 dari harga pasar $55,75.

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Warren E Buffet, 1995

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  1. Warren E Buffet, 1995

  2. Acquisition of GEICO Corporation • Agustus 2005, Warren Buffet, CEO dari Berkshire Hathaway mengumumkanakanmengakuisisi 49,6% dari GEICO. • Saham yang beredarakandibelidenganharga premium sebesar $70 darihargapasar $55,75. • Pengakuisisian yang dilakukan Buffet sangatmengherankan. Diamembayarsebesar 26% premium atas GEICO, tanpamengubahapa pun mengenai GEICO. Padahal GEICO danBershiretidakmemilikisinergisamasekali. • Padaharipengumumantersebut, hargapenutupandari Berkshire 2,4% dan S&P 500 sebesar 0,5%.

  3. Berkshire Hathaway • Perusahaan inididirikanpada 1889 sebagai Perusahaan Manufaktur Berkshire Cotton • AkhirnyaberkembangmenjadisalahsatuprodusentextilterbesardiInggris yang menguasai 25 persendariproduksitekstildinegaraitu. • Padatahun 1955, Berkshire merger dengan Hathaway Manufakturdanmulaimengalamipenurunansekulerkarenainflasi, perubahanteknologi, danpersainganintensifdenganPesaingAsing

  4. Di tahun 1965, Buffet yakinpenurunaniniakanmengalamipemulihan. Selama 20 tahunkedepan, investasi modal yang besardiperlukansupayatetapkompetitif. • Di tahun 1985, Berkshire Hathaway keluardariindustritextildanmembeli 2 perusahaanAsuransidi Omaha. • Pengakuisisiandibisnis lain diikuti pad tahun 1970-an dan 1980-an. • Kinerjasahamdari Berkshire Hathaway sangatmenakjubkan. Padatahun 1977, hargapenutupansahamsebesar $89. Dan pada 25 Agustus 1995 hargapenutupansahamsebesar $25.400

  5. Sebagaiperbandingan, rata-rata returntahunansahambesardaritahun 1977 sampaiakhir 1994 sebesar 14,3%. • Padaperiode yang sama, index S&P 500 tumbuhdari 107 sampai 560.

  6. Beberapapengamatmeminta Buffet untukmelakukansplit stock,akantetapi Buffet menolak. • Padatahun 1994, Berkshire menggambarkanperusahaanmerekasebagaiperusahaaninduk yang memilikianakperusahaandengansejumlahkegiatanbisnis yang beragam.

  7. Bisnisdari Berkshire Hathaway • Insurance Group • FechheimerA manufacturer and distributor of uniforms. • Kirby. A manufacturer and marketer of home cleaning systems and accessories. • Nebraska Furniture. A retailer of home furnishings. • See's Candies. A manufacturer and distributor of boxed chocolates and other confec­tionery products. . • Childcraft and World Book A publisher and distributor of encyclopedias and related ed­ucational and instructional material. • Campbell Hausfeld. A manufacturer and distributor of air compressors, air tools, and painting systems. • H.H Brown Shoe Company : Lowell Shoe, Inc.; and Dexter Shoe Company. A manufaturer importer, and distributor of footwear.

  8. BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY’S ACQUISITION POLICY Kriteriabisnisnya: Large purchase Demonstrated consistent earning power Businesses earning good return on equity while employing little or no debt Management in place Simple business An offering price

  9. BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY’S ACQUISITION POLICY • The larger the company the greater will be our interest • We won’t engage unfriendly hostile takeover

  10. BUFFET’S INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY • Economic reality, not accounting reality. • The cost of lost opportunity. • Value creation: time is money. Market value PV @ 15% of 124 = $61,65 Market/book = 61,65/50 = 1,23

  11. BUFFET’S INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY Value Destruction Market value = PV@15% 0f $81 = 40,30 Market/book = 40,30/50 = 0,80

  12. Buffet’s Philosophy (cont’d) • Measure performance by gain in intrinsic value, not accounting profit • Risk and discount rates • Diversification • Investing behavior should be driven by information, analysis, and self-discipline, not by emotion or “hunch”

  13. Measure performance by gain in intrinsic value, not accounting profit • Gain in intrinsic value was analogous to “economic profit” and “market value added” • Gain in intrinsic value focused on ability to earn returns in excess of the cost of capital

  14. Risk and discount rates • Buffet doesn’t using CAPM in measuring discount rate and risk • Buffet using “risk-free” discount rate • He said, “I put a heavy weight on certainty. If you do that, the whole idea of a risk factor doesn’t make sense to me. Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing”

  15. Diversification • Buffet said, “Figure businesses out that you understand, and concentrate. Diversification is protection against ignorance, but if you don’t feel ignorant, the need for it goes down drastically”

  16. Investing behavior should be driven by information, analysis, and self-discipline, not by emotion or “hunch” • Awareness and information is the foundation for investing • There are irritionality of stock price as compared to true intrinsic value • Over the long-term, tock prices should have strong relationship with the economic progress of the business • But, daily market quotations were heavily influenced by momentary greed or fear

  17. Investing behavior should be driven by information, analysis, and self-discipline, not by emotion or “hunch” • He said, “Stock market doesn’t exist. It’s there only as a reference to see if anybody is offering to do anything foolish. When we invest in stocks, we invest in businesses. You simply have to behave according to what is rational rather than according to what is fashionable”

  18. Investing behavior should be driven by information, analysis, and self-discipline, not by emotion or “hunch” • Don’t try to trade stocks based on expectations of changes in the market cycle • His strategy was patient and long-term investing • Buffet also scorned the academic theory of capital market efficiency • Efficient Market Hypothesis: Stock prices were “fair” in reflecting what was known about a company

  19. Efficient Market Hypothesis • Teori yang menyatakan bahwa harga saham mewakili semua informasi publik dan harga saham itu secara “fair” mewakili apa yang sedang terjadi pada perusahaan tersebut. • Warren buffet menolak teori ini.

  20. 8. Allignment of agents and owners “ I am a better businessman because I am an investor. and I am a better investor because I am a businessman.” Contoh : empat dari enam direktur Berkshire, lebih dari 50% keluarganya memiliki saham di Berkshire Hathaway.

  21. Geico Corporation

  22. Informasi mengenai GEICO • Merupakan perusahaan asuransi kendaraan ketujuh terbesar di Amerika Serikat, memberikan polis asuransi untuk 3.7 juta mobil. • Senior managernya merupakan ahli di bidangnya masing-masing dan memiliki karakter investasi yang hampir sama dengan Warren Buffet. • Perusahaan asuransi dengan biaya terendah di industrinya.

  23. Value Line Forecast Information

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