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The Climatic Impacts on Indian Agriculture

This study aims to analyze the climatic signals in Indian agricultural indices and its implications for climate change impact assessment. It focuses on identifying crops and regions with strong climate signals for the development of climate applications and initiatives.

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The Climatic Impacts on Indian Agriculture

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  1. K. Krishna Kumar K. Rupa Kumar, R.G. Ashrit, N.R. Deshpande and James Hansen (IRI, New York) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India (krishna@tropmet.res.in) The Climatic Impacts on Indian Agriculture PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

  2. Objectives • To generate data on all-India and state-level Agricultural Indices • To Identify Crops and Regions in India having strong Climatic Signal which can be used for Developing various Climate Applications initiatives/programs involving National and Multi-national Institutions and Individual Scientists • Establishing Climate Signal in various Agricultural Indices has implications for Climate Change Impact Assessment Studies as well PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

  3. Agriculture Facts • India lives mainly in its villages, 600,000 of them • Roughly 65% of the population is rural • India’s growth in per capita food production during 1979-92 was about 1.6% per annum – the highest in the world during this period • Agriculture provides livelihood to about 65% of the labor force • Agriculture contributes nearly 29% to the GDP • In terms of fertilizer consumption, India ranks 4th in the world • About 43% of India’s geographical area is used for agriculture PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

  4. IRRIGATION PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

  5. Production/Area/ Yield Total foodgrains Kharif/Rabi Rice Winter Wheat Groundnut Sorghum Cereals Oilseeds Pulses Sugarcane Source Agricultural Situation in India India Data Base Organizations Center for Monitoring Indian Economy Dept. of Agriculture and Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture, Govt. of India DATA PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

  6. Crop Areas PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

  7. Monsoon Variability Features Factors PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

  8. All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001)(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set) PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

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  10. JJA-1 SON-1 MAM DJF-1 PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

  11. Regional Climate Signal in Indian Agriculture Indices PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

  12. Area under Major Food Crops in India and % Irrigated during 1950-1998 PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

  13. Total Foodgrain Production in India and its Relation to Indian Rainfall PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

  14. Kharif Rice Production in India and its Relation to Indian Rainfall PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

  15. Total Wheat Production in India and its Relation to Indian Rainfall PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

  16. Kharif Groundnut Production and its relation to Indian Rainfall PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

  17. Total Sorghum Production and its relation to Indian Rainfall PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

  18. Global Climate Signal in Indian Agriculture PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

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  27. Summary • Most rainfed crops show statistically significant relation with Regional and Global Climatic Factors, the exception being Sorghum. • Wheat and Sugarcane, the two most irrigated crops, do not show any climatic signal. • Groundnut and Kharif (Summer) Rice in India show very strong regional and global climatic signals and should be targeted for climate application as well as climate change impact assessment studies. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

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