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America’s Strategic Choices

America’s Strategic Choices. Professor Sean O’Keefe. Episodes and Tendencies. “Sir, the old wars were decided by their episodes rather than by their tendencies. In this War the tendencies are far more important than the episodes.” -- Winston S. Churchill, 1915. Episodes.

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America’s Strategic Choices

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  1. America’s Strategic Choices Professor Sean O’Keefe

  2. Episodes and Tendencies “Sir, the old wars were decided by their episodes rather than by their tendencies. In this War the tendencies are far more important than the episodes.” -- Winston S. Churchill, 1915

  3. Episodes • Large scale warfare unlikely, but... • “Rogue” nation use of first nuclear or chemical/biological weapons • Super-terrorism at home • Korean debacle • renewed conflict in the Persian Gulf • .... other possibilities

  4. Trends (1): The Budget • Stagnant defense budget levels • A trend toward increasing operations & support costs • A national budget squeeze -- despite surplus projections -- defense increases likely to be insignificant • More operations and an R&D intensive strategy puts pressure on procurement

  5. Trends (2): Geopolitics • The rise of China • The return of Russia? • The vulnerable Middle East • The shrinkage of Europe • “Balkanization” and “ethnic cleansing” • The open world economy

  6. Varieties of Empire • “History has more imagination than any scenario writer in the Pentagon” • Donald Kagan • Rome, 2nd century AD • Athens, 5th century BC • England, 19th century AD

  7. Rome • The ambition: near universal empire • The force structure: a frontier military • The strategy: integrated client militaries; disproportionate punishment

  8. Athens • The ambition: democratic empire • The force structure: naval superiority and a power projection army • The strategy: tight alliances and democratic enlargement

  9. England • The ambition: benevolent hegemony, maintaining the international rules of the game • The force structure: naval supremacy, an imperial army with limited continental reach • The strategy: selective dominance; knowing when not to intervene

  10. Some Concrete Choices • Smaller, similar, and aging, or much smaller, different, and modern? • Aggressive alliance building, or multilateral affiliation? • A world of friends and enemies, or of interests? • “operations other than war” or “you’re on your own”? • Proportionality or “an eye for a tooth”? • World-beaters or bandit-bashers?

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