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Managing Flash Floods

Managing Flash Floods. Risk Perception from a Cultural Perspective. Ashley Coles April 30, 2007. Introductions. Who is here Why we are here We all share a common interest in reducing losses to life and property from flash floods What to expect from this meeting

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Managing Flash Floods

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  1. Managing Flash Floods Risk Perception from a Cultural Perspective Ashley Coles April 30, 2007

  2. Introductions • Who is here • Why we are here • We all share a common interest in reducing losses to life and property from flash floods • What to expect from this meeting • Overview of proposed risk perception research project • Discussion: How to make this information useful and practical for implementation

  3. CLIMAS AFMA, NWS, ADEM, FCDs, etc. Forging the partnership Fieldwork: surveys and analysis Present findings, feedback, brainstorming Develop new products Ashley Coles’s master’s thesis Final report Implement new products

  4. Effective warnings must be… • Heard • Understood • What is happening, time, how to prepare • Believed • Warning is true, danger is imminent • Personalized • Risk to self or property is perceived • Responded to Mileti, 1995

  5. Risk perception researchTypical approaches • There is an appropriate response, anything else is irrational • Behavior as a result of individual psychological (dys?)function • Behavior as a result of human nature • People need more education and information • More recently and frequently, studies are beginning to account for the effects of cultural and social contexts

  6. The social context • Social units share collectively produced attitudes, beliefs, values, and habits (Douglas, 1992) • Not just national, also “gender, ethnicity, religion, cohort or generation, historical period, profession, social class, and country of origin” (Kitayama & Markus, 1995, p. 368)

  7. How does social context influence risk perception and behavior? • Beliefs, values, and practices influence how individuals process information and make decisions • Actions become embedded in the social context, acting to either reinforce or transform it Values/Practices Cognitive processes Actions/Inactions e.g. Kitayama and Markus, 1995

  8. Main factors • Trust • In science, government, and responsible agency • Self-efficacy • How confident people feel in their ability to handle ordinary life as well as extreme events • Social incorporation • Extent of social networks • Social amplification of risk • Social autonomy • Degree of freedom to fill any social role • Time orientation • Focus on past, present, or future

  9. Linking values to actions Hazard information Group IdentitiesSocial Factors Gender Trust Age Self-efficacy Ethnicity Incorporation Socioeconomic Autonomy Etc. Time orientation Values Risk Perception Actions/behavior

  10. Implications for mitigation • Can education and information change attitudes, values, and beliefs? • Should risk managers speak to these attitudes, values, and beliefs? • How can managers “know” the people they are responsible for protecting?

  11. Why use a survey? • Can perform both quantitative and qualitative analyses on the data • Quantitative: regression analysis • Qualitative: open-ended questions for deeper insight • Able to reach a broad spectrum of various social groups

  12. Who is the target sample? • People who have crossed flooded washes • Problematic because of death, stigma, and number of successful crossings • 1000 Tucson residents in flood prone areas • Specific neighborhoods with proximity to commonly flooded intersections or crossings

  13. Plan to increase response rate • Week 1: First survey packet mailed out • Survey in English and Spanish • Consent forms • Reply-paid envelope • Week 2: Reminder Postcard • Week 3: Second survey packet mailed out • Offer drawing for $20 Visa Gift Card • Reduce effects of stigma

  14. What does the survey ask? • Using direct and indirect methods • Social factors • Historical, typical, and hypothetical behavior • Relevant demographic information I am a good judge of whether flood waters are dangerous. Completely Somewhat Neutral Somewhat Completely Disagree Disagree Agree Agree

  15. What do you think? • Is this potentially useful for your flood mitigation decision-making? • Are new mitigation strategies based on these findings feasible to implement? • What information would you like to gather with the survey tool?

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