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2007 Hurricane Predictions

2007 Hurricane Predictions. Phil Klotzbach Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference 5/18/2007. Arago’s Admonition: “Never, no matter what may be the progress of science, will honest scientific men who have regard for their reputations venture to predict the weather.”.

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2007 Hurricane Predictions

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  1. 2007 Hurricane Predictions Phil Klotzbach Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference 5/18/2007

  2. Arago’s Admonition: “Never, no matter what may be the progress of science, will honest scientific men who have regard for their reputations venture to predict the weather.”

  3. So easy a caveman could do it.

  4. 2007 FORECAST AS OF 3 APRIL 2007

  5. BEST ANALOG YEARS FOR 2007 (END OF MARCH)

  6. The number of years that our tropical cyclone forecasts issued at various lead times have correctly predicted above- or below-average activity for each predictand over the past eight years (1999-2006)

  7. 2007 Updates & Forecasts

  8. PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS FOR 2007 • Entire U.S. coastline – 74% (average for last century is 52%) • 2) U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida - 50% (average for last century is 31%) • 3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 49% (average for last century is 30%) • 4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

  9. New Landfalling Hurricane Web Application Currently Available at the following URL: http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane In partnership with the GeoGraphics Laboratory – Bridgewater State College, Bridgewater MA

  10. Recent Updates • Historical Database Updated Through 2004 Season • Historical Database Extended Back to 1851 with Revision of the HURDAT Database

  11. REGION 2 - TEXAS & LOUISIANA H A J L C O J C V C (b) (c) (a)

  12. Future Work • Gust Probabilities • Monthly Probabilities • User-Selected Probabilities (Daily, Weekly Periods) • Potential Damage

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