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Gabriel Lojero, Mike Thomas, and Nick Gliozzi,

Lessons Learned. Gabriel Lojero, Mike Thomas, and Nick Gliozzi, . HPC Surface Analysis, Monday 12Z. Forecast Concern- Precip Type 850 mb Analysis, Monday 12z. Forecast Concern- Precip Type 850 mb Analysis, Tuesday 00z. National Radar 11:30Z. National Radar 18:30Z. National Radar 00:30Z.

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Gabriel Lojero, Mike Thomas, and Nick Gliozzi,

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  1. Lessons Learned Gabriel Lojero, Mike Thomas, and Nick Gliozzi,

  2. HPC Surface Analysis, Monday 12Z

  3. Forecast Concern- Precip Type850 mb Analysis, Monday 12z

  4. Forecast Concern- Precip Type850 mb Analysis, Tuesday 00z

  5. National Radar 11:30Z

  6. National Radar 18:30Z

  7. National Radar 00:30Z

  8. Eliminated all Zero Categories • - Easy: Dust (14), smoke (16), Wind Chill(18,19), Flood Categories (21-24), Big Snows (5,6,7,8), and Severe Weather(27), and IceStorm (11) • - Lightning (25) was ruled out based on PSU lightining data on ewall • - Visibilities from ASOS reports were > 0.5 mile (17) Verification Procedure

  9. Verification Procedure The Search for High and Severe Winds - used Mesonet and ASOS reports and none reported winds greater than 15 kts so Snow Squall (3), High Winds (12), and Severe Winds (13) were neglected. - Even though there were 50-60kt winds at 850 mb, the layer between the surface and 850 mb was stable, not conducive for mixing to the surface.

  10. Verifying Snow Totals • Flurries: 18z 13th – 12z 14th using NOHRSC interactive snow information and metars • Snow Shower and Light Snow 12z 13th – 12z 14th with same method • Were there moderate snow totals? • Eliminated Snow Squall, Heavy Snow, Very Heavy Snow, and Blizzard based on snow totals and other criteria

  11. Verifying Snow Totals • 12z 13th – 12z 14th • NOHRSC interactive snow information

  12. Flurries • All zones that received measurable snowfall and zones that traced snow after 18z using NOHRSC and metars

  13. Snow Shower • Verified using NOHRSC 12z-12z

  14. Light Snow • Verified using NOHRSC 12z-12z

  15. Was there Moderate Snow?

  16. Was there Moderate Snow? (Cont.)

  17. SLEET

  18. Where was there sleet? Trained spotter reports sleet. KPOF, just across border, reported ice pellets. KLRF reported ice pellets.

  19. Confirming Sleet: Theory KSRC KARG KHKA

  20. Confirming Sleet: Theory

  21. Where was there sleet? Theory Confirmed

  22. Sleet Verification

  23. FREEZING RAIN

  24. Where was there Freezing Rain? Trained spotter reports FR. KPOF, just across border, reported FR. KRUE in zone 22 reported FR. KMEM reported FR KLIT reported FR.

  25. Where was there Freezing Rain? Theory Confirmed

  26. Freezing Rain Verification

  27. Freeze/Frost • Verified using METARS

  28. Verification Procedure • Searching for Precipitation >= 0.5 inches

  29. Verification Procedure Precip >= 0.50 Inches Verification • Zones 23-24, 32-33, 44, 63-64, 68-69, and 73-75

  30. T>40 F 39 40 39 41 39 41 41 39 43 40

  31. T>40 F Verification

  32. Lessons Learned • Always look at a sounding to analyze stability parameter to determine if strong winds from aloft can mix down to the surface. • Always look at observations first to determine the most likely precipitation type during a future time period. • Verifying Precipitation amount: Mesonet and Cocorahs • ASOS stations do not have a brain (UP = Unknown Precipitation) . Our job to go through the data to determine what actually happened. • You can use soundings and visibilities to get a good idea of the type of precipitation. • GARP = Confusing interface...but great data.

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