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COMPARISON OF LINK-BASED AND SMOKE PROCESSED MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS OVER THE GREATER TORONTO AREA

COMPARISON OF LINK-BASED AND SMOKE PROCESSED MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS OVER THE GREATER TORONTO AREA Junhua Zhang 1 , Craig Stroud 1 , Michael D. Moran 1 , Brett Taylor 2 , and David Lavoué 3 Air Quality Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

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COMPARISON OF LINK-BASED AND SMOKE PROCESSED MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS OVER THE GREATER TORONTO AREA

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  1. COMPARISON OF LINK-BASED AND SMOKE PROCESSED MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS OVER THE GREATER TORONTO AREA Junhua Zhang1, Craig Stroud1, Michael D. Moran1, Brett Taylor2, and David Lavoué3 Air Quality Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada Pollutant Inventories and Reporting Division, Environment Canada, Gatineau, Quebec, Canada Golder Associates Ltd., 2390 Argentia Road, Mississauga, Ontario, Canada 11th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, Oct. 15-17, 2012

  2. OVERVIEW: • Introduction • On-road mobile emissions processing by SMOKE • Link-based on-road mobile emissions processing • Temporal and spatial comparisons between SMOKE-processed and link-based on-road emissions • Potential improvements to representation of on-road emissions for air quality modelling, especially for high-resolution modeling

  3. Objective of this study: • Prepare on-road mobile emissions for high resolution (~1km) air quality modeling for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) • Largest urban area in • Canada, witha population • of 5.5 millionin 2011 • Major highways that link • cities in the U.S. and • Canada • Busy local arterial network

  4. Emissions Processing by SMOKE (1): Zhang et al., 2012, 20th International Emission Inventory Conference AQ Model Inputs Temporal (Weekly & Diurnal Profiles): Hourly Spatial (Spatial Surrogates): Each Grid Cell, e.g., 42 km, 15 km, 2.5 km Chemical Species (Chemical Speciation Profiles): PM Species: Sulphate, Nitrate, Ammonium, Elemental Carbon, Organic Matter, Crustal Material VOC Species: Propane, Alkenes, Alkanes, Toluene, Isoprene, etc. NOx Species: NO2, NO Canadian On-Road Emissions Inventory Temporal: Monthly Totals Spatial: Mostly Provincial Totals Source Category: By Vehicle Type and by Road Type Pollutants: PM, VOC, NOx, etc. SMOKE Right Time Right Location Right Species Right Amount

  5. Emissions Processing by SMOKE (2): Weekly Profiles for On-Road Mobile Emissions: Four Weekly Profiles from EPA:

  6. Emissions Processing by SMOKE (3): Diurnal Profiles for On-Road Mobile Emissions 12 profiles for Light Duty Vehicles from EPA for 12 Road Classes 1 derived profile from FEVER Study for Heavy Duty Vehicles for All Roads Urban Interstate Urban Freeway Urban Principal Arterial Urban Minor Arterial Urban Collector Urban Local Rural Interstate Rural Principal Arterial Rural Minor Arterial Rural Major Collector Rural Minor Collector Rural Local Urban Roads: 6 Road Classes Rural Roads: 6 Road Classes Heavy Duty Vehicles: All Roads

  7. Emissions Processing by SMOKE (4): Spatial Surrogates for On-Road Mobile Emissions: BAQS-Met 2.5km AURAMS Domain Based on National Road Network & Population Urban Local Road Urban Secondary Road Urban Primary Road Rural Local Road Rural Secondary Road Rural Primary Road

  8. Link-Based Emissions Processing (1): • Traffic Flow: • Street Network • Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) • Vehicle Specific Hourly Origin- • Destination Matrices • Vehicle Specific Hourly Traffic Flow on each segment of the road • On-Road Mobile Emissions: • HC, NOX, CO, PM, Toxics, • etc. • Hourly on Each Road • Segment (link) • By Vehicle Type or Total • Emission Factors: • Vehicle Fleet Information: Vehicle • Type, Age Distribution, Speed • Fuel Types • Type of Emissions: Exhaust, • Evaporative, Tire Dust, Brake Dust • Meteorology

  9. Link-Based Emissions Processing (2): Kanaroglou et al., 2009, Final Report to Environment Canada Traffic Flow Software: TRAFFIC, Centre for Spatial Analysis (CSpA), McMaster University, Canada Emission Factors: MOBILE6.2C, Canadian Version of US EPA MOBILE6.2 Traffic Analysis Zones (1,316) GTA Road Network Source: Kanaroglou et al., 2009, Final Report to Environment Canada

  10. Link-Based Emissions Processing (3): Link-based emissions were mapped to the same AURAMS 2.5km domain to compare with SMOKE processed emissions

  11. Temporal Comparisons: Time series of domain total NO and CO emissions during a week in July • Link-based emissions have significant rush hour peaks • Rush hour peaks are not clear for SMOKE-processed emissions, especially NO • SMOKE-processed emissions are larger than link-based emissions: mid-day, night, and weekends • Vehicles from outside the GTA were not considered in the link-based emissions

  12. Spatial Comparisons (1): Link-based Highways vs. SMOKE-Processed Primary Roads Link-based Highways SMOKE-Processed Primary Roads Domain Average Diurnal Variation • Link-based highways correspond reasonably well with SMOKE primary road • Much higher emissions from SMOKE

  13. Spatial Comparisons (2): Link-based Arterial Roads vs. SMOKE-Processed Secondary Roads Link-based Arterial Roads SMOKE-Processed Secondary Roads Domain Average Diurnal Variation • Much lower emissions from SMOKE • Link-based emissions are concentrated in the downtown area, which is reasonable • SMOKE surrogate based on road length and # of lanes

  14. Spatial Comparisons (3): Link-based Pseudo Links vs. SMOKE-Processed Local Roads Link-based Pseudo Links SMOKE Processed Local Roads Domain Average Diurnal Variation • SMOKE-processed emissions compare reasonably well with link-based emissions

  15. Improvements to SMOKE Processing of On-road Emissions (1): Sensitivity to Surrogate Assignment The issue: Compared with link-based emissions, too much emissions on primary roads, too little on secondary roads Sensitivity Test: Assigning Urban Minor Arterial Road to Secondary Road surrogate

  16. Improvements to SMOKE Processing of On-road Emissions (2): Sensitivity to Surrogate Assignment

  17. Improvements to SMOKE Processing of On-road Emissions (3): Build a secondary road surrogate based on link-based emissions The issue: SMOKE secondary road surrogate is based on road length and number of lanes, without considering traffic volume Secondary Road Surrogate from Link-based Emissions Original Secondary Road Surrogate

  18. Conclusions: • Significant differences between SMOKE-processed and link-based mobile emissions in the Greater Toronto Area, both temporally and spatially • During weekdays, the link-based emissions have significant peaks during both morning and afternoon rush hours. The peaks are not so clear for SMOKE processed emissions, especially for NO emissions • For SMOKE, assignment of spatial surrogates may need to be adjusted • The SMOKE secondary road surrogate needs to be improved to reflect the variation of traffic volumes in the city • Emissions from vehicles coming from outside the city need to be included in the link-based emissions inventory to be suitable for AQ modeling studies • Emission factors from MOVES, instead of MOBILE, should be used in the future for link-based emissions processing

  19. AcknowledgementsThanks to the project team in the Centre for Spatial Analysis (CSpA), McMaster University for processing the link-based emissionsThanks to our colleagues in Environment Canada for their helpful discussions

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