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Dangers Big and Small. Unconventional Threats to American Security. I. “Weapons of Mass Destruction:” Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical. A. Nuclear Weapons. Yield: Kilotons (KT) or Megatons (MT) of TNT Large weapons (MT range) require additional research. 2. Burst Type.
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Dangers Big and Small Unconventional Threats to American Security
I. “Weapons of Mass Destruction:”Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical
A. Nuclear Weapons • Yield: Kilotons (KT) or Megatons (MT) of TNT Large weapons (MT range) require additional research
2. Burst Type a. Surface: Smaller radius, lots of fallout: “dirty” b. Air: Larger radius, less fallout: “clean”
2. Example: 100 KT Surface Blast, Fort Hood Main Gate • 100 KT = larger than ordinary fission bomb, smaller than largest Russian weapons
15 psi: Virtually all dead 5 psi: 50% dead, 45% injured 2 psi: 5% dead, 45% injured) 1 psi: 25% injured
Example: 100 KT Surface: Fallout 1 hour: Lethal 2 hours: Lethal 3 hours: Lethal 4 hours: Lethal and 50% Lethal 5 hours: Lethal and 50% Lethal Possible Zone of Sickness
B. Biological Weapons • Characteristics: Dependent on type of agent and dispersal mechanism • Little military value: slow-acting, unpredictable, difficult to store • Primary purpose: Overload health care systems • Easy to build, difficult to make effective
C. Chemical Weapons 1. Purposes • Shock on battlefield • Reduced efficiency through protective gear 2. Mass Destruction? • Limited effectiveness against prepared defender • Huge quantities usually required 3. Examples: WWI, Iran-Iraq 4. Easiest to develop and use
D. Proliferation 1. Suspected Arsenals (May 2003): 9 Nuke, 5 Bioweapon, 11 Chemical ?
D. Other forms of Mass Destruction • Radiological weapons (“Dirty Bombs) – similar to persistent chemical weapons (plus radiation) • EMP Weapons (“E-Bombs”) – Damage electronics
E. International Law • Nuclear Proliferation • Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) • Non-members: India, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea (withdrew) • Legal nuclear powers: US, Russia, UK, France, China • Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) • Never signed: North Korea, India, Pakistan • Signed but not yet ratified: United States (rejected), Israel, China • Biological Proliferation: Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) • Non-members: Israel, Syria (signed), Egypt (signed) • Against verification: United States • Chemical Proliferation: Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) • Never signed: Iraq, Egypt, Syria, Libya, North Korea • Signed but not yet ratified: Israel • Ratified but limiting inspections: United States, Pakistan
II. Terrorism A. Three central facts about terrorism 1. Terrorism is old – and might actually be decreasing
2. Terrorism is a global problem, not just a Middle Eastern one
2. Terrorism is a global problem, not just a Middle Eastern one
3. Terrorism is not random or “crazy” • Psychology • Suicide bombers not suicidal • Often well-educated, middle class • Identifiable motives
c. Substitution of means • Metal detectors Fewer Skyjackings, More Hostage-Takings and Assassinations
c. Substitution of means • Metal detectors Fewer Skyjackings, More Hostage-Takings and Assassinations
c. Substitution of means • Metal detectors Fewer Skyjackings, More Hostage-Takings and Assassinations
1. FBI Definition • The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives. • Government cannot commit terrorism (unlawful) • Both civilian and military targets • Need not cause death or injury • Goal must be intimidation • Distinct from crime: Political or social objectives
2. Department of State • Premeditated, politically motivatedviolence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience. • Governments can commit terrorism – but only secretly • Noncombatant targets only • Must be violent • Need not intimidate • Distinct from crime: political violence
3. International Law • No agreed definition • Proposal: “Peacetime equivalent of war crimes.” • Bans targeting civilians • Bans nonmilitary violence (i.e. hostage-taking) • Governs both states and non-state actors