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WORLD ETHANOL MARKET/ O MERCADO MUNDIAL DO ÁLCOOL

WORLD ETHANOL MARKET/ O MERCADO MUNDIAL DO ÁLCOOL. Opportunities and Challenges/ Oportunidades e Barreiras By Dr. Frank Rosillo-Calle Imperial College London FÓRUM ENERGIA E AMBIENTE Mudanças Climáticas : Impactos e Tendências nos Transportes UNICAMP, 5 Outubro 2004. CONTENTS/ CONTEUDO.

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WORLD ETHANOL MARKET/ O MERCADO MUNDIAL DO ÁLCOOL

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  1. WORLD ETHANOL MARKET/ O MERCADO MUNDIAL DO ÁLCOOL Opportunities and Challenges/ Oportunidades e Barreiras By Dr. Frank Rosillo-Calle Imperial College London FÓRUM ENERGIA E AMBIENTE Mudanças Climáticas : Impactos e Tendências nos Transportes UNICAMP, 5 Outubro 2004

  2. CONTENTS/ CONTEUDO • Summary/Sumário • Types of ethanol/ diferentes categorias de álcool • World ethanol production/ Produção mundial do álcool • Main programmes/ Programas principais • International ethanol market/ O mercado mundial do álcool • Opportunities and challenges/ Oportunidades e barreiras • The Market/ O Mercado • PERSPECTIVES/ PERSPECTIVAS - Policy Incentives/ Políticas de estímulos • Feedstock tech, R&D/ Matérias-primas, PeD - Markets/ Mercados • Synthetic versus biofuels/ Combustíveis sintéticos vs. bioetanol - The FFVs/FLEX-FUEL • Conclusions/ Conclusões

  3. Types of ethanol/ diferentes categorias de álcool - by feedstock e.g. biological vs. synthetic • - by composition/composição • -- anhydrous vs. hydrous/ hidrous vs anhidrous • -- Biological: grain, sugarcane, fruit, etc/ grãos, cana, frutas, etc • Synthetic: derived from oil, gas or coal/ petróleo, gás, carvão mineral) • End use/ Usos finais • Fuel, industrial, beverages/ combustível, bebidas…

  4. Feedstock/Materia prima • Sugarcane the most promising/cana é mais promissora • - produced in 100+ countries • - Exception: USA, EU and China • Other: corn, cassava, sweet sorghum, potatoes/ maize, mandioca, sorgo sacarino, batata • Sugar crops (70%, 2003; 80% 2010)

  5. Main ethanol producers 2003/ Producao mundial de alcool • World 38+ Bl (13 countries/países) • Brazil 14.2 BL • USA 10.6 BL (circa) • EU c. 2.2 BL (incl. bioethanol-based ETBE+ Synthetic- incu ETBE a partir do álcool) • Others, c.2 BL • (Australia, Canada, Colombia, China, India, Mexico, Peru, South Africa, Thailand, etc) • 35 countries interested

  6. POTENTIAL/POTENCIAL • World/Mundo =60-70 BL in 2012; 120 BL in 2020 (c.10% transport fuels) • Brazil 22 BL in 2012 • USA 20 BL (2012) • EU 8-10 BL (2010) • Canada1.33 BL 2010) • China 10 BL (2010?) • India 1.5 BL • LA/AL 3-5 BL (Peru 1.2 BL; Colombia, 1 BL..)

  7. INTERNT. MARTKET/O MERCADO INTERNACIONAL • Need to create sizable production/ consumption centres (Brazil, USA, EU, China, India, Thailand)/ Necessidade de um mercado maior (produção e uso) • Easy to transport long distances/Fácil de transportar distâncias longas • Greater security/stability to possible shortfall in any country or region/ Maior seguridade e estabilidade

  8. BRAZIL • World largest potential/ Brasil tem o maior potencial mundial • Exports: 2003 = 770 Ml; 2004 = 1.5 BL • World export market c.7 BL (2012); Brazil could supply 4-5 BL • (JAPAN 1.8 (3% blend/mixtura) – c3BL(5% blend); China 5BL; EU 2- 5 BL

  9. BRASIL destino das exportacoes em 2003 (ML) • Americas (C, N +Caribe) 253.3(33%) • Europa………………….. 219.3(29%) • Sul/Sudeste Asia +……. 214.0(28%) • Africa……………………. 80.4(10%) • America do Sul………… 2.3 • Otras regioes………….. 58.0(7.55%) (JournalCana www.procana.com)

  10. THE INTER. MARKET/ O MERCADO INTERNACIONAL • PITFALLS WITH ETHANOL TRADE/Dificuldades • 3 BL/yr traded globally/Mercado mundial • New trade agreements (i.e. Brazil with China, Japan, India) • Concern over supply (too inelastic)/Preocupação com fornecedores • Unstructured, not standardised/Falta de estrutura • Growing rapidly due to its potential contribution to transportation/ Acréscimo rápido pelo aumento da demanda • A new global ethanol futures created in NY (by NY Board of Trade)

  11. Trade barriers & high storage costs/Barreiras e alto custo de armazenagem • It is relatively easy to set up a domestic ethanol fuel industry/ É fácil montar um programa de álcool • Ethanol fuel is mostly aimed at the domestic market/ Álcool combustível é normalmente para o mecado nacional • Market price does not reflect its real benefits/ O mercado não reflete todos os benefícios sociais • Possible trading distortions (e.g. pressure from farmers and subsidies)/ Distorções do mercado • Need for new investment & infrastructure/ Investimento e estrutura • Market fluctuations (weather, currency devaluations, etc)/ Mudanças do mercado são constantes

  12. FEEDSTOCK & TECH ISSUES/ MATERIA PRIMA EQUESTOES TECNOLOGICAS • MAIN CHALLENGES: • Increase productivity /Aumento da produtividade • Reduce cots e.g. today c.60% of feedstock/Custos • Conversion technology is not the problem/Tec. de conversão não é o maior problema • Competition from synthetic fuels/ Competição com combustíveis sintéticos fósseis • Poor R&D funding/ P&D é pobre • Fragmentation, short term R&D/ P&D muito fragmentada e curto prazo • Lack of cooperation/ Pouca cooperação entre os centros de pesquisa • Lack of innovativeness/ Falta de iniciativas inovadoras

  13. FEEDSTOCK TECH, CONT… • Greater commitment from the private sector/Maior participação do setor privado e da indústria • More industrial participation • Greater attention to environmental issues/ Maior atenção as questões ambientais • Greater use of by-products/ Maior utilização dos sub-produtos • Explore new markets/possibilities aggress. • Hydrolysis of bagasse + co-firing • Ethanol from sugarcane leaves

  14. POLICY/POLITICAS • Growing demand mostly from Asia/Maior demanda na Ásia • International trade increasing/ Maior crescimento do mercado internacional • Increase international competition/Maior competição • Importing countries (China, EU, USA, Canada, Japan..) more demanding • Key driver: cost competitiveness/ Fator principal e o baixo custo • International policy reforms (WTO)/ Reformas da OMC • New opportunities (ethanol, sugar demand) • Challenges: sweeteners, corn, synthetic fuels…

  15. TECHNOLOGY TRENDS/ Tec no futuro • No major breakthroughs/ Não vai haver novas grandes descobertas • Blends in differing proportions/ Misturas • Ethanol from cellulose containing material/ álcool a partir de material de celulose • Cost main obstacle/Custos • - First cellulose ethanol commercial plant in Canada/ Planta comercial no Canadá • - Japanese offer pre-design pilot plants • . Perhaps 5+ years • - genetically engineered microorganisms • Sugarcane producing countries R&DD on cane rather than other cellulose material/ Cana deve ter papel fundamental

  16. SYNETHETIC VS BIO, CONT.. • R&D on synthetic fuels (oil, coal + n. gas) is gathering pace/ P&D em combustiveis sintéticos estão crescendo • Fossil fuels are abundant, particularly coal/ Grandes quantidades de carvão mineral • The quality of synthetic fuels is high • These fuels quality is improving and will develop, eventually, into even higher and cleaner fuels/ Aumento na qualidade dos combustíveis sintéticos fósseis

  17. Cont..// • Other RE, will increase their contribution/ Contribuição das energias renováveis • “WE DRIVE ON INDUSTRIALLY MANUFACTURED FUELS. THE TECH IS CONSTANTLY IMPROVING UNDER CONSTANT SOCIO-ECONIMIC PRESSURES” / Nós usamos combustíveis industriais. Esta tecnologia muda constantemente, devido a pressões sociais e econômicas”

  18. SYNTHETIC VS BIOFUELS • Synthetic fuels will become increasingly important (alcohols, diesel and gasoline) • They will not go away/ Os combustiveis sintéticos vão ter uma importância maior no futuro • South Africa produces 40% (oil, coal and natural gas) • New plants are coming on stream in USA, Malaysia/ • This has major implications for biofuels/ Implicações para bio-combustiveis como o álcool, etc.

  19. THE FFVs/FLEX-FUEL • Idea from the USA Alternative Fuels Act of 1988 • 1992 GM introduced the Flex-Fuel vehicles in the USA; • Currently over 1.5 million vehicles in USA • Brazil…. • The FFVs-Fuel-flex is an “intelligent engine”

  20. CONCLUDING/ Conclucoes…. • Demand for ethanol fuel will increase/ Demanda para álcool vai aumentar e pode contribuir 10% da demanda mundial • Few feedstock are economic/ Custos • Need a truly international market/ Necesidade de desenvolver um mercado internacional de álcool • Great potential for Brazil/ Grande possibilidade para o Brasil que pode se tornar líder mundial de exportação • Synthetic fuels (coal & natural gas) will increase/ • FFVs-Flex-fuel- opens new possibilities (fuel flexibility, economic. & environment)

  21. MAIN REFERENCES • www.dmb.com.br • www.procana.com • www.revistaalcoolbras.com.br • www.renewable-energy-world.com • Lew Fulton (2004) Biofuels for Transport – An International Perspective, IEA • C. Berg (2004) World Fuel Ethanol- Analysis and Outlook (www.distill.com/World-Fuel-Ethanol ) • MUITO OBRIGADO PELA SUA ATENÇÃO

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